WHAT A DAY AGAIN
KELSO SWEEPS MONDAY!!!
50 Units Kings (+1) Hornets 100-92
25 Units Davidson (-10) Wofford 76-54
15 Units Sixers (-4) Lakers 95-90
5 Units Texas A&M (+3) Texas 68-70
WHAT A DAY!!!
250 Unit Super Bowl  Side & Total Parlay Wins
Giants (+3) and Under 54 Easy Winners
In Baskets Kelso Sweeps Also!!
50 Units Youngstown St. (-4) over Loyola-Chi 80-63
15 Units Pittsburgh (-8) Villanova 79-70
5 Units Miami-Fla. (+11.5) Upsets Duke 78-74

• NCAA-BB
• NBA
• MLB
• NFL
• NCAA-FB

Giant 3-0 Super Bowl Triple Crown. Winning 200-Unit Play On Underdog Giants. Winning 25-Unit Play On The Under. Winning 25-Unit Side/Total Parlay

Youngstown State (-4½) Crushes Loyola-Illinois By 17 Points, 80-63, As A 50-Unit Winner. Now 17-7 In 50, 100-Unit Plays Last Five Weeks

By Kelso Sturgeon

Nothing beats winning, especially when one feels so strongly about the outcome of a single game he can make an all-in bet, no holds barred, as I did in releasing the underdog New York Giants (+3) over the New England Patriots in Sunday’s Super Bowl and getting the job done straight up, 21-17. That 200-unit winner was the biggest bet I have ever made on a Super Bowl and I have been doing this for more than 40 years.

That is just how strongly I felt New York would win - and I did predict the outright victory.

It was just icing on the cake that I also released a 25-unit play on “under” 54 and took down the cash at odds of 13-5 on a 25-unit side/total parlay. Lest I forget, those who purchased my five-day Super Bowl Package also won a 50-unit college basketball on Youngstown State (-4½) in its 80-63 blowout win over Loyola-Illinois.

The New York Giants’ win also helped me improve on a Super Bowl record that is just that - a winning record that has not been seen or even equaled in NFL history. With the win I am 10-2 (83.0%) on sides and 11-1 (92.0%) over the past 12 seasons.

Let me again give credit where credit is due. I have been handicapping the Super Bowl since 2001 with a formula given to me by the late Hank Stram, the NFL Hall of Fame coach of the Kansas City Chiefs and a man who won a Super Bowl. Needless to say, the formula works.

While we closed out the football season in a blaze of glory, the Super Bowl did not shutdown the bank. The winning continues in college and NBA basketball and my current 17-7 record in all games released at the 50 and 100-unit level over the last five weeks speaks for itself.

• Those betting $100-per-unit on those 24 games have won $51,500 since January 10.
• Those betting $10-per-unit on those 24 games have won $5,150 since January 10.

Please consider this an invitation to join my Personal Best Basketball Club for the entire season - college and NBA - and have the opportunity to win an average of five 50-unit plays each week. You can get the rest of the season for just $599, or test the waters for a month at $199.

Join my Personal Best Basketball Club on this website or toll free at 1-800-755-2255. All major credit cards accepted.

My Current 17-7 Record In Big Game Plays

Study the 24 games listed below and you are looking at exactly the kinds of games you will get each week. While I could go write a book about why I used these teams, suffice it for the moment to say the foundation of it all is the element of power vs. weakness. I will discuss this in a column later this week.

Betting Lines Remain Extremely Tight

I have said repeatedly all season basketball betting lines are the most challenging I have seen in 40 years as a professional handicapper. To illustrate just how tough they are, there were 109 college games Saturday and 32 of them were decided in the final 30 seconds. That pointspread winner was in play right to the final buzzer. That figure compares with 39% of the games last Saturday.

Winning in college basketball is determined by finding hidden edges that give a team a better chance to cover the number. The edges are there; you just have to look for them.
For the record, I went 2-0 with my Best Bets Basketball Club clients yesterday, winning a 15-unit bet on Pittsburgh (-7½) in its 79-70 victory over Villanova and then a 5-unit winner on underdog Miami (+12) which upset Duke, 78-74 in overtime. As noted, the edges are there if one knows where to find them.

You can join my Best Bets Basketball Club and receive 2-3 plays every single day, seven days a week. My releases are heavily weighted with college games, but I this past week there was one night I released three NBA games and won them all.

Sign up for my Best Bets Basketball Club on this site, or toll free at 1-800-755-2255 for just $199 for the entire college and NBA seasons, or try a month of play for just $99. All major credit cards accepted. Sign up today and win tonight.

Things written have more impact and thus I am listing all of Saturday’s college basketball games in which the pointspread winner was in doubt with than 30 or less seconds to go.

Market Report: What Sharps are Thinking about the Super Bowl

This is our final market report of the year for pro football. It's also the easiest to write! There's only one more game to talk about before the NFL campaign is in the books. And, sharps have made it VERY clear what they think about the side and total in the Super Bowl based on the early numbers. The only mystery left is whether or not weekend line movement will bring in sharp position-taking the other way.

THE SHARPS LIKE THE GIANTS AT +3 OR BETTER
This game opened most places at NYG +3.5, though there were some early fours in a few offshore places at small limits. Sharps POUNDED the Giants at +3.5, and then again at +3 with favorable juice. Oddsmakers and sportsbooks were caught by surprise, and took quite a whole to find a line that backed the sharps off.

Late in the week, there was serious talk of a solid move down to NYG +2.5 everywhere, though sportsbooks are very hesitant to move off the critical number of three because the game actually landing on three would be a disaster. Hardly anyone would lose. Las Vegas media even had some sharps going on the air to say that they wouldn't be surprised if the line kept moving down to NYG +2 or maybe NYG +1.5 if the public came in on the dog over the weekend...or if Patriots receiver Rob Gronkowski was unable to come back from his high ankle sprain.

What number would bring in sharps to shoot at a middle? Or, would sharps even bother shooting at a middle figuring they had so much value at the early numbers that they should just enjoy that advantage and try to root the Giants home? That's something to watch on game day. An early move to the Pats would suggest that the public wants the cheap favorite. An early move toward the Giants followed by a late reversal toward the Pats would suggest the public preferred the major market dog, but sharps bought back to shoot at middles.

THE SHARPS LIKE THE UNDER AT 56, 55, AND 54.5
The total opened at 56, but has been bet down to 54 (and possibly lower by the time you read this) because there hasn't been good news about Gronskowski's ankle. Also, there's a perception amongst Giant bettors that the team will try to run clock against the soft New England defense to keep Tom Brady off the field. Some of the Under "support" is really Giants support in a different form.

Weather won't be an issue here because the game is indoors in Indianapolis. Any game day movement would be from injury-related news, or maybe a tug of war between squares and sharps. The public tends to prefer Overs in general, and particularly in the Super Bowl. Should the public drive the total higher with early betting action, sharps may come back in with more Under money if they see 54.5 or more before kickoff. On the off chance the public likes the Under, a further drop may bring in middle money from sharps at Over 53 or less.

Bottom line...it's Giants and Under from the sharps...and they were so confident of their opinions against the early numbers that they didn't wait until the public started betting. We've heard early Giants action called a "feeding frenzy" by a few sources because sharps didn't want to wait and get stuck with a worse price. Sunday will bring another "frenzy" at Vegas books because they'll all be so crowded. Be sure you take some time to read the market as the day progresses so you can get the best remaining price for your preferred play.

That wraps up our final look at what sharps are thinking in pro football this year. Best of luck to you in Sunday's Super Bowl!

Kelso's Advanced Handicapping: Super Bowl Strategies

There's a short list of football fans who have attended every single Super Bowl in person. As we close in on 50 YEARS of the big game, there's also a short list of gamblers who have bet every single Super Bowl. I'm on that list. And, I can assure you I've cashed my tickets much more often than not.

Today I'd like to discuss a few of the keys I use when handicapping the Super Bowl. I can't post my official side/total/parlay selection here in our coursework. That wouldn't be fair to paying customers. You can become a paying customer and get my top plays right here at the website with your credit card on game day.

Here are some factors you MUST consider when handicapping the Giants/Patriots showdown this Sunday.

HEALTH OF THE PLAYMAKERS
When you get to the NFL championship, BOTH teams are loaded with playmakers and gamebreakers. You need to know who's healthy, and who's hobbled. We've seen a few quarterbacks in recent years who weren't quite at 100%...and their teams couldn't play up to expectations. The running game isn't as important as it used to be. But, it isn't meaningless either. Receivers? A team can afford a slowdown at one position if they have multiple options. If a significant percentage of past contributions are going to be at less than 100% healthy, you must make allowances for that in your handicapping.

In other words...don't give me a lot of stats if certain players aren't likely to play to those stats. Don't bother me with trends if one of the starting quarterbacks is at anything below peak readiness. And, make sure the impact players on defense are healthy too. A pass rush disappears if a sackmaster is hobbled.

MISTAKES LOSE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES
It's tempting to handicap a game based on which team is likely to make the most big plays. It's better, when championships are on the line in any sport, to plan on fading the team that's likely to make the most mistakes.

High-risk, high reward teams often implode under pressure. Smart teams who play the percentages are more likely to get the job done. This is true in the Super Bowl, the BCS Championship, March Madness, the NBA Playoffs, and even the World Series.

You also want to study each defense to see which is likely to FORCE the most mistakes from the other side. Interceptions in particular have loomed large in many Super Bowl showdowns.

Coaches talk about how important the turnover category is in big games. THEY'RE RIGHT! Handicap the turnover category. Evaluate the quarterbacks based on how they've played in pressure situations this year and through their careers. Evaluate the head coaches based on how their teams have performed in terms of risk/reward in recent playoffs.

MARKET VALUE
The Super Bowl has a history of missing Vegas expectations by big margins because the money can be disconnected from reality in a big way. Some years, there are public bandwagon games where squares line up on the wrong side (sportsbooks love it when this happens!). Some years, the favorite is so much better than the dog in terms of offensive firepower that the line doesn't matter (sportsbooks hate it when this happens!).

Do your best to evaluate what the smart money is going in the Super Bowl...and what the dumb money is doing. If the dumb money is on the favorite...does that favorite have a chance to run away and hide? This year's spread is so low, that the favorite could cash the ticket just with a good fourth quarter rather than a good 60 minutes. Have the sportsbooks taken a position on the game because oddsmakers are confident in their number?

The most simple handicapping approaches don't really worry about the market. But, ADVANCED handicapping requires an understanding of market nuances that everyone reading this needs to develop.

You probably already know that I have very big plans for Sunday's Super Bowl. Be sure to check out the home page at this website for a video update over Super Bowl weekend as well. I'll be building my clients' bankrolls with basketball in the days leading up to the big game. Then, Super Sunday is going to be Super indeed because I'm very confident of this year's selections.

I'll be back again for another installment from my College of Advanced Handicapping early next week. I expect to provide a Super Bowl review at that time. But, there are some brewing stories in basketball that may take a higher priority when class resumes. Thanks to everyone who's been attending my "College of Advanced Handicapping." I greatly appreciate that so many of you seek out these articles every week as you work on improving your Las Vegas wagering performance.