Kelso's Basketball March To The Super Bowl Continues...
Cavs (-9.5) Heat 102-86 WON
Blazers (+2.5) Spurs 96-93 WON
Georgia Tech (+12) Duke 67-86 lost
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SUPER BOWL XLIV PREVIEW
Sunday, February 7, 6:25 p.m. ET, CBS
NEW ORLEANS (15-3) vs. INDIANAPOLIS (16-2)
Sun Life Stadium -Miami, FL
Simply put, Super Bowl XLIV is all about the best player in the sport against the best story in this year's NFL.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning -with no ands, ifs or buts -is playing the best football in his professional life right now and that covers a dozen glorious years in the league (not to mention four Most Valuable Player Awards, to boot!).
The fact that he happens to be a native son of New Orleans only adds to the intrigue when you consider the feel-good story Saints who played their best ball in some 43 years of operation during this 2009 NFL season.
Not only did N'Orleans strike up a winning pose 13 times in regular-season play and twice in the post-season this year but the Saints did so with style with five games of 45-or-more points and with resounding wins against at-the-time powers the New York Giants and the New England Patriots. Throw in that NFC Championship win in overtime against Minnesota two weeks ago -and whatta party that set off along Bourbon Street -and you get the sense that the Saints may be getting ready to author one of the greatest single-season stories in league history.
Still, that Manning fellow stands in the way:
The son of one-time Saints slinger Archie Manning has thrown for 623 yards in two playoff wins this year -including that scintillating 377-yard, 3-TD, 0-INT performance in the 30-17 win against the New York Jets in the AFC Championship Game two weekends ago -and he's mastered any/all defense thrown his way even if he sometimes has needed a quarter-or-so to get his engines revved up.
If Manning gets hot -and stays hot here -than the Colts figure to holding aloft the Vince Lombardi Trophy sometime around 10 p.m. ET on Sunday night. If the Saints' defense has its way with its "remember me" hits on the quarterback, then maybe they can shake up Manning and get him from establishing a real working rhythm.
On the flip side, Saints QB Drew Brees cannot waste any opportunities here -when/if New Orleans gets into the red zone the NFC champs need TDs and not FGs. After scoring 45 and 31 points in playoff home wins against Arizona and Minnesota -the latter a true slop-fest 31-28 OT win against the Vikings two weeks back in the NFC Championship Game -the Saints probably have to score somewhere in the mid-to-high 30s to snag this win.
Note the Las Vegas betting line at press time is Colts (-4½) over Saints with a totals price of 56½ points.
First-year Indianapolis head coach Jim Caldwell is attempting to become only the third rookie coach in NFL history to win a Super Bowl -San Francisco's George Seifert and one-time Baltimore Colts boss-man Don McCafferty were the others -while New Orleans head coach Sean Payton is attempting to make the rags-to-riches story complete with this Saints franchise.
Let's get ready to rumble!
WHAT TO WATCH
What else... Manning and Brees.
Okay, so Manning threw for 4,500 yards and 33 TDs in the regular season and has kept the beat going right into the post-season but Indy's shown a penchant lately for being a slow starter: The Colts only posted a PK Matt Stover in the first 28 minutes of play in that AFC Divisional Playoff win against the Ravens before Manning aired a pair of scoring strikes (to WRs Austin Collie and Reggie Wayne) in the last two minutes of the first half.
Then in that title game win against the J-E-T-S, the Colts didn't get on the board until four seconds into the second quarter (a 25-yard Stover FG) and Manning didn't get Indianapolis into the end zone until just 1:13 remained in the first half as he zipped a 16-yard over-the-middle scoring strike to Collie.
No doubt the Colts are well aware of the slow starts the past couple of games and will look to correct things here -but if the Saints can keep Manning from getting his gang into the end zone for the first quarter or most of the first half here then you might want to sound the early alarms for an "upset alert".
The Saints' defensive coordinator Gregg Williams has talked tough in the days leading up to Super Bowl XLIV but -keep this in mind -he's faced Manning lots of times in the past when serving as DC at both Jacksonville (2008) and Tennessee (1997-2000) and while going up against Manning twice a year. Maybe Williams has his reasons to be confident here although everyone knows the Colts QB was sacked just 10 times in regular-season play and just twice so far in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Brees led the NFL in passer rating this year (109.8) while throwing for 4,388 yards and an NFL-high 34 touchdown passes and so it's not as if he's taking a back seat to anyone here. The Saints made it through the NFC Championship Game despite Brees throwing for only 197 yards (but 3 TDs) and he and the N'Orleans offense was out of whack for most of the second half.
No question that Brees is a rhythm passer too and must be able to keep this game going at a comfortable pace -although that won't be the case if the Colts' pass rush is getting in his grill. Okay, so it took us this long to bring up Indianapolis DE Dwight Freeney and his ankle woes but if he's unable to play here or is well below 100 percent healthy then DC Larry Coyer's underrated unit is gonna have to find a way to apply pressure with blitz packages and/or gimmick defenses.
THE KEYS
The fact of the matter is we've heard lots of "in-the-know" folks claim that running the ball here in this Colts-Saints bash is not all that important because both teams live/die with their respective passing attacks and both defenses are better at stopping the run than handling aerial attacks but don't pooh-pooh rushing yards here.
The Colts have to be keeping fingers crossed that RB Joseph Addai (80 yards rushing versus the Jets in the championship game) can stay in one piece here after getting banged about in both of the playoff games while the Saints desperately need RB Pierre Thomas (61 yards rushing against the Vikings two weeks ago) and RB Reggie Bush to slash their way for a bunch of five-yard-or-more rushes so that Brees can keep Indy honest.
Neither team relies heavily on the ground game -but odds are the team here than can make the short-yardage plays and enough real estate yardage on first-down runs will win. While it may be a surprise if anyone runs for 100 yards here, it could happen if there is lots of running room up the middle of the field when defenses are in all-out blitzes.
P.S., as we said earlier this week here at Jim Sez, this might be a game where Indy rookie RB Donald Brown shines if Addai either goes down or is stuffed at the line of scrimmage early on.
THE COACHES
No doubt that Colts head coach Caldwell is the most under-the-radar sideline general in Super Bowl history. The long-time right-hand man of former Indianapolis coach Tony Dungy has been described as "buttoned-down", "reserved" and "unassuming" during this Super Bowl week by other members of the media but do not be fooled -Caldwell's '09 club plays with more attitude than those Dungy teams (2002-08 seasons) and probably plays with more inner confidence too.
New Orleans head coach Payton is a classic play-caller who didn't have a real great game against Minnesota and his club -thanks mainly to five Vikings turnovers -still registered 31 points. Payton must be razor-sharp here and he must have Brees distribute the ball to all his pass-catchers such as WRs Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and TE Jeremy Shockey must come up with some great stat lines.
Heck, if Saints coach Payton does nothing else in his professional life, than at least he can stake the claim of having coached this franchise in two of the last four NFC Championship Games... not bad when you consider this NFC South club had never gotten that deep into the post-season in nearly four decades of play.
THE FIVE PLAYERS
Here's the guys not named Manning or Brees who will have an awful lot to say about who wins Super Bowl XLIV on Sunday night:
For Indianapolis, it's
- LB Gary Brackett -Veteran star is a supreme run-stuffer and will be key on those third/fourth-and-one plays.
- DE Robert Mathis -The sack-and-strip master will be receiving extra attention if Freeney is a no-go here.
For New Orleans, it's...
- FS Darren Sharper -The ball-hawk nabbed 9 INTs this year and returned three of 'em for TDs. Can he perform some magic here?
- RB/PR Reggie Bush -If the Colts punt it in his general direction, they could regret it big-time.
- PK Garrett Hartley -Why does something tell us he's gonna get a few chances here... and maybe even late in the game.
