50-Unit College Blowout Basketball Game Kicks Off

200-Unit Super Bowl Weekend As Bettors Just

Keep Hammering The Indianapolis Colts

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Bookmakers Move Into Twilight Zone, Throw Up

The Hands And Hope For Visit From Lady Luck

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BASKETBALL WEATHER CANCELLATIONS TODAY

Hawks at Wizards…NC-Wilmington at Delaware

St. Bonaventure at St. Joseph’s…JMU at Towson

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By Kelso Sturgeon

            There is no confusion among bookmakers about Sunday’s Super Bowl between the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints, despite the fact one can find dozens of books offering the Colts at -4.5, -5.0, -5.5 and even -6.0. While lines usually are more stable than that, bookmakers have been so knocked out of position on this game it has become a free-for-all every-man-for-himself.

            The trouble began with a bad opening line which in Las Vegas came with Indianapolis -3.0-120, which mean if you liked the Colts you could lay 3.0 points while paying 12-10 instead of the customary 11-10 to do so. Offshore, the number came at -3.5 in near unanimous fashion at all the big books.

            Bookmakers were so overrun with money on Indianapolis at those prices, they rapidly raised the number and in the process opened themselves up to get middled and that is why each betting shop is offering a number they hope will right the ship a bit. Most Las Vegas sports books had the Colts -5.5, while offshore books were split between -4.5 and -5.5. One major offshore book had Indianapolis -6.0.

            For the record, the money is still pouring in on the Colts—a fact that makes me wonder if the bookmakers were playing with our minds Friday when many dropped the game to -4.5 and -5.0 to give the impression big bucks had begun to come in on New Orleans.

            Man, I hate to think like that since I always thought it was only the big betting syndicates that manipulated numbers to mislead the public.

            The total on the game opened at 56.0 and is now evenly split between 56.5 and 57.0. Money line bettors will have to lay -210 if they like the Colts while backers of the Saints will get +190 for their money. Proposition bettors will have their usual field day with hundreds of opportunities to wager. For instance, the Las Vegas Hilton sports book is offering 335 different prop bets on the game.

            Offshore bookmakers will handle $5-$6 billion on the game while just under 150 sports books in Nevada expect to see approximately $85 million come through the windows, up from the $81,514,748 wagered last year on the Pittsburgh-Arizona game but far below the record $94,534,237 bet in 2006 game between the Pittsburgh and Seattle.

            For the record, while bookmakers are walking on eggs because of the possibility of getting middled, it must be noted that only twice—in 1995 and 2008—did Nevada betting shops lose money. In the 2008 Super Bowl won by the New York Giants, 17-14, over the Patriots, Nevada books handled $92,055,833 and had so much money on the underdog Giants they lost $2,573,108. The loss on the 1995 Super Bowl between San Francisco and San Diego was $396,674.

            As I have previously noted in this space, one can make a strong case for both teams in this year’s Super Bowl, but that does not mean one can’t beat it. I have a very strong opinion and am releasing the side at 100 units, the total at 25 units and with 25 units of prop action.

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Big Bettors Hitting College Basketball Hard Today

            While there was little line movement in the Saturday afternoon college basketball games, the big bettors were in action and here is exactly where their money went.

            --On Kansas State over Iowa State, with the number moving from -4.5 to -6.0 on the visiting Wildcats.

            --On UL-Lafayette over Arkansas-Little Rock, with the number moving from -8.0 to -9.5 on the host team.

            --On Washington State over Arizona, with the number on the host Cougars moving from -1.0 to -3.0.

            --On New Mexico State over San Jose State, with the host Aggies moving from -5.0 to -7.0.

            There certainly will be more line moves later, but this is where the early money hit.

            Here is what we know about today’s postponed basketball games.

            --No make up date has been set for the Washington Wizards-Atlanta Hawks game.

            --St. Bonaventure at St. Joseph’s will be played Sunday, with a 1:00 P.M. Eastern start.

            --NC-Wilmington at Delaware will be played Sunday, with time to be announced.

            --James Madison at Towson will be played Monday, with time to be announced.

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For The Record

My Super Bowl Record In This Century

2008 Super Bowl

100 Units

Cardinals (+7) 23, Steelers 27 (W)

10 Units

Over 46 Points (W)

2007 Super Bowl

30 Units

Giants (+12 ½), Patriots 14 (W)

10 Units

Under 54 ½ (W)

10 Units

Parlay of Giants and the Under (W)

2006 Super Bowl

Bears (+7) 17, Colts 29 (L)

Under 47 ½ Points (W)

2005 Super Bowl

Seahawks (+4) 10, Steelers 21 (L)

Under 46 ½ Points (W)

2004 Super Bowl

Eagles (+7) 21, Patriots 24 (W)

Under 47 Points (W)

2003 Super Bowl

Panthers (+7) 29, Patriots 32 (W)

Over 37 Points (W)

2002 Super Bowl

Buccaneers (+3 ½) 48, Raiders 21 (W)

Over 44 Points (W)

2001 Super Bowl

Patriots (+14) 20, Rams 17 (W)

Under 53 Points (W)

2000 Super Bowl

Ravens (-3) 34, Giants 7 (W)

Over 33 (W)

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Previous Features
Trojans Look Both Good & Awful
100-Unit College Blowout Ready To Win Saturday
25-Unit College Winner Kicks Off College Season
Middle Tennessee Without Starting QB Against Minnesota