25-Unit Play On Gonzaga Misfires, But Night Overall Is Strong
4-2 As More Conference Tournaments Start Tuesday
William & Mary (+9) Old Dominion 53-60 WON
Fairfield (+7.5) Siena 65-72 WON
Wofford (-4.5) Appalachian State 56-51 WON
Spurs (+3) Cavs 95-97 WON
Hawks (-7) Knicks 98-99 lost
Gonzaga (-4.5) St. Mary's 62-81 lost

Kansas Moves To Top Of My NCAA 65-Team Ratings
And Is Now My Personal 2-1 Favorite To Win It All
How will the spread look along the way?

I am a firm believer in what you see is what you get at this point of the college basketball season and what I am seeing is a Kansas team that looks almost unbeatable, this despite the fact the Jayhawks have lost twice this season, on the road at Tennessee and Oklahoma State.

But after I watched them crush the life out of a good Missouri team, 77-56, in Columbia this past Saturday, it is more than a bit obvious the Jayhawks have so much talent and so much quality depth the only way they are going to lose on the neutral floors of the post-season is to get very unlucky, or have some team shoot 70% against them.

Kansas is a very special basketball team--maybe as good as any I have seen in years--and they are my 2-1 favorite to win it all. I have concluded Syracuse, which was my top-ranked team for the previous seven weeks, cannot beat them on the straight, nor can Duke and, with out even the slightest doubt in my mind, nor can Kentucky.

The question does remain as to how this will play out against the point spread. Kansas can expect to be substantially favored in each game. Not only for the reasons I have already documented, but for the fact that the public tends to bet favorites heavily at any time, but especially in the NCAA Tournament. This becomes even more pronounced when a team is a recent national champion (see 2008) and a national contender of long standing.

Therefore, be assured I will be watching the line movement with a jaundiced and skeptical eye, one that comes from 38 years of watching quality teams get overpriced at the betting window through no fault of their own. For each and every game, both in the Big 12 Tournament this coming week and the NCAAs after that, I have a firmly fixed number of the points I am willing to lay with Kansas, and other heavy favorites. Should the number become too high, I will not hesitate to play the dog or simply pass.
But if we are talking strictly about straight-up winning, Kansas has a better chance to win the national championship that any team I have seen in years.

I drew several other conclusions--mine only, of course--this past weekend and the included:

• As good as is Kentucky I do not believe the Wildcats can win the NCAA Tournament starting three freshmen, even as good as they are. Freshmen find ways to get you beat when the heat is on, and three of them on the floor at the same time are an invitation to fatality.
• If I had to pick an outsider to win the championship right now it would be Maryland. The Terrapins closed out the season on a 7-0 run that saw them playing with the focus and intensity of a team that knows it has the talent to do it and wants it. The home win over Duke was no fluke. Those two teams could have played for another hour and Maryland would still have won--a team that does not intend to be denied.
• While Baylor is nationally ranked, the Bears do not get the respect they deserve and that is the biggest secret weapon they have as they move through the post season.
• Villanova has also become a very suspect team, having lost four of its last six games. The Wildcats, which have the same talent that took them to the Final Four last year, appear to be a team that has lost its focus. Bettor beware.

Three Basic Rules

There were three basic things you need to be aware of at this point of the tournament season and they are:

1. When you win a life-and-death game against any team, you are exhausted, period.
2. When you must right back and play again within 24 hours, or less, you have not had time to recharge your batteries and at some time during the game you will lose your focus, fall apart and get beat. This is the very reason lower seeded teams that find themselves playing four games in four days run out of gas in game four.
3. The harder a team has to play to win, the less gas (energy) it will have to give in its next game. When two teams are playing on just 24 hours rest, the edge always goes to the team that was the easier winner in its last game.

This is not to suggest there are not exceptions to these basic rules of the post-season, but
they are few and far between.

Trees don’t grow to the sky and basketball teams, being flesh and blood, can only go so far when they have to play their guts out to keep winning. The running out of gas factor kicks in 90% of the time.

These are just things to think about as you handicap the tournament games on the schedule this week.
I have a big weekend of winning planned and I encourage you to read the ads in this publication to keep up with all the special things that are happening.

• On Thursday I will be offering my 100-unit College Conference Tournament Game of the Year.
• On Friday it will be my 50-unit College Conference Tournament 2-Team Parlay
• On Saturday it will be another 100-unit play--my College Conference Tournament Upset Game of the Year.
• On Sunday, I will close out the weekend with a package that includes all four conference championship games played that day, highlighted by a 25-unit play.

All these games will be released on this site and toll free at 1-800-755-2255, along with all of my other college and NBA plays.

You can deal yourself a best bet right now by getting on board for my college tournament and NCAA package. The price is right and I do take all major credit cards.

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