Win Giant 50-Unit Bet In NFL Tonight

Win Giant 50-Unit Bet In NFL Tonight
Handicapping Tonight's NFL Contest That Finds The Rams
At The Seahawks Was A Major Challenge But When One Factor Hit My Square In The Face I Knew I Had The Winner

College Bowl Season Begins Saturday With 6 Games

Lessons Of The Week – Losers Keep Losing, Believe Weather Forecast At Your Own Risk, The Bounce Is A Fact

By Kelso Sturgeon

The list of lessons learned in football and basketball this past week is long, enlightening and hopefully buried in the gray matter between our ears – ready for instant recall. At the top of my list of lessons is to make certain you never believe weather forecasts even when the come from the two most authoritative and respected services in the world. I forgot that and got crushed because of it.

The weather forecast for the Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriot games for Foxborough was explicit from both services – 1-3 inches of snow during the game, closing out with rain. When I turned on my TV to watch the game, other than a temperature of 31 degrees the game might as well have been played in Miami. No snow, no rain and a shaky 50-unit play on under 45 – bet down from 49½ because of the weather forecast.

It all made sense to me but good sense means little when actually believing a weather forecast from anywhere. Reminds of me the day I was driving down the Las Vegas Strip in a rare desert downpour while listening to the news that included the prediction there was no chance for precipitation. Maybe tomorrow – from the so-called monsoons coming from Arizona in the South.

The loss was all on me because of the enthusiasm generated for the bet I forgot the rule to never trust weather forecasts. For what ever the reason, my brain forgot that fact and jumped right to the conclusion.

Lesson #2… One Is A Fool To Believe A Bad Team Can Finally Win

Lesson #2 comes with one of the oldest factors in the world of handicapping any sport – but especially NFL football – when bettors finally “see the light” and find the right spot to cash a ticket on a very bad team. Qualifying or that label are the Cleveland Browns (0-13) and the San Francisco 49ers, 0-12 since winning their opening game of the season.

First of all, I did win a under 43 on the 49ers-New York Jets game but certainly did not wager on a side in the two games involving these absolutely terrible teams. Obviously others did. Cleveland played a home game against the Cincinnati Bengals and late wiseguy money moved from Cincinnati -5½ to -4.0. Cleveland money was again present as it has been all season. The Browns went into that game 2-10 against the spread (ATS) this season and now stand 2-11 after losing, 23-10.

However this is not the most interesting example of betting on bad teams.

It is difficult to understand why the sharps keep betting on the Browns, even while they keep losing, but much further beyond to my imagination to figure out how anyone has the courage to go for the money with the San Francisco 49ers.

The 49ers took the field Sunday as 3-point favorites over a bad New York Jets team and lost to the latter, 23-17 in overtime. San Francisco has been favored in three games this season and a pick’em in a fourth and stands 0-4 straight up (SU) and 0-4 ATS in those outings, losing all of them by an average of 12½ points. For the record it was the second consecutive week the suckers bought in. The previous week the 49ers were 1-point favorites in Chicago and lost 26-6.

There is no reason to beat this dog to death but suffice it to say there is no average in believing a bad team is at last in the right spot to win for you. A bad team in the NFL is just that and regardless of its opponent or the price there is better than a 90% chance (my personal 3-year study) it will lose – again.

Lesson #3… The Bounce, The Bounce, The Bounce

Lesson #3 comes with the bounce factor – once considered a theory – but which now is simply a fact, especially in college basketball. It is in play several times each week and produces a higher percentage of wins and covers than any other element in the world of handicapping. There are two perfect examples of that from the past week

The first involves the powerful Saint Mary’s Gaels, operating out of 3,500-seat McKeon Pavilion, in Moraga, CA. Saint Mary’s does not get the recognition that its traditional West Coast Conference rival Gonzaga receives and operates its entire season in high gear, hoping to gain a bit of respect.

On Thursday, December 8, under-rated Texas-Arlington came to Moraga and took the floor as a 15-point underdog and buried St. Mary’s 65-51 as a 15-point underdog. In my opinion the line was accurate, considering the fact the always super-charged Gaels stood 49-6 the past five seasons at home against non-conference opponent.

The loss put the Gaels in major bounce-back form and in their next game took the floor an big double-digit home favorite over UC-Irvine and crushed the Anteaters by 31 points, 65-53.

The bounce worked again.

In the world of he bounce, Indiana State fit in the other end of the spectrum, beating nationally-ranked Butler December 7, 72-71, as a 9½-point underdog, and four days later took the floor as a 8-point favorite and lost to a mediocre Western Kentucky team, 77-59.

The bounce worked again.

The bounce world is quite simple.

A team playing far under its ability and loses straight up is a strong candidate to play far over its ability in its next outing and win.

A team playing far over its ability and upsets a much better team straight up is a strong candidate to play far below its performance in its next game and losing to a dramatically inferior team.

“Bounce” is not a theory. It’s a fact.

Thursday Football & Basketball

Win Giant 50-Unit Bet In NFL Tonight
Handicapping Tonight's NFL Contest That Finds The Rams
At The Seahawks Was A Major Challenge But When One Factor Hit My Square In The Face I Knew I Had The Winner

Lest my memory has failed me no game played in the NFL this season presented more challenges to handicapping the winner. There are simply so many factors in play tonight some might want to duck the game entirely but I am not among that group. I won last Thursday's Kansas City Chiefs-Oakland Raiders game with a 50-unit release and intend to do the same again tonight.
Two major factors entered into analyzing this game - the fact the Los Angeles Rams fired head coach Jeff Fisher Monday and are operating on a short practice week and the fact the Seattle Seahawks were blown away at Green Bay, 38-10, as 3-point favorites last Sunday.
It took a lot of reading between the lines but I find one single factor that convinced me of the winner and it was strong enough to make me release this game as another 50-unit play. Get all the cash with me tonight for just $50, charged to your major credit card, or to Pay Pal.

NBA Blowout Game Of Week Set To Crush Number Tonight
I Won My Chairman's Club NBA Game Of The Week Last Night As Memphis Slipped By Cleveland And It's Right Back Tonight With Blowout Game Of Week

I used early information - the fact the Cleveland Cavaliers had not even taken three of its starters to meet the Memphis Grizzlies - to win my 25-unit NBA Game of the Week last night and got the cash as the Grizzlies (-6.5) slipped into the winner's circle with a 93-85 victory. Tonight the game is the same and I have valuable information - all hidden from the public - that should produce another 25-unit winner. Everything is in place for a runaway winner in one of the five games on the schedule and I am so confident it's going to happen I am releasing it as my 25-unit NBA Blowout Game of the Week. Win it with me for just $25, charged to your major credit card.

Best Bets Club 2-1 Last Night...Goes For 2-0 Tonight
Tonight's College Basketball Schedule Offers
Just Seven Games But The Facts And Figures Say Two Of Them Should Deliver Dominating Winners

The fact the colleges are in final first semester exams right now has limited the number of games on each day's schedule but there are still winners out there. For instance I went 2-1 last night with 10-unit plays...
Illinois-Chicago (+8) 80, DePaul 74 (Won)
Southern Illinois (-11.5) 70, Saint Louis 55 (Won)
Arkansas-LR (-12) 72, Northern Arizona 67 (Lost)

As noted there are two games being played tonight that appear to be rather one-sided and I intend to win both of them with room to spare. You can win these games with me for just $15, charged to your major credit card or Pay Pal account. Better yet, get on board with a membership in my Best Bets Basketball Investment Club for just $195 and play the entire college and NBA seasons, receiving an average of 2-3 plays seven days a week.