Ten Necessary Requirements To Win NCAA Tournament

Duke (27-8) Has Become Late Favorite As Sharps And Wise Guys Bet As If NCAA Was Already Over

Ten Requirements Necessary To Win The NCAA Championship In Pressure-Packed In World Of One-And-Done

Can Gonzaga (32-1) Or Kentucky (29-5) Win NCAA By Playing Run-And-Gun School Yard Basketball

I Have Made NCAA Futures Bets On Duke At 10-1 And Wichita State (30-4) At 100-1

Duke Becomes 6-1 Favorite To Win NCAA Tournament Because Of One Powerful Late Development

The wiseguys and sharps saw something in the prestigious Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament that immediately made them big fans of the Duke Blue Devils (27-8) and they alone have bet so much money on Duke it is now the 6-1 favorite to win the NCAA Tournament. There are $10,000 futures bets all over Las Vegas at odds of 10-1, 7.5-1 and 6-1—and money keeps pouring in.

It is interesting futures betting that began right after Villanova won the NCAA championship last April pegged Duke as the 9-2 favorite to win it all this year. A weak start eventually drove the number out to 10-1, with Kentucky becoming the 6-1 favorite.

The only knock I had heard the past few weeks on Duke was the fact, while it was loaded with blue-chip players, it had weak and short bench. The latter presented a question mark difficult to dismiss. And then it happened.

A Duke team did something no team in ACC history had ever done by winning four games on four consecutive days to win the championship. One four straight nights…

Duke (-6.5) beat Clemson (17-15) 79-72
Duke (+1.5) beat #10 Louisville (24-8) 81-77

Duke (+4.5) beat #6 North Carolina (27-7) 93-83
Duke (-4.5) beat #14 Notre Dame 75-69

It was as impressive a run as one will ever see and, short bench or not, the wiseguys figured if the Blue Devils could do this against some of the toughest teams in basketball—and on four consecutive—it was primed to at least make it to the Final Four because it was playing in the weakest of the four regionals.

It is win-or-go-home time in college basket, as in one-and-done. Good bye ‘til next year, maybe. The two major post-season tournaments—the NCAA and the NIT—are underway and with them come a few new elements to the handicapping process. Ignore them at your own peril.

  1. Any big underdog that wins its 1st round game is a strong candidate to lose and fail to cover in its 2nd outing.
  2. Teams need to have tremendous depth to deal with the lack of recovery time between games. For instance Wichita State (30-4) runs 13 players deep. A team must be able to handle the pressure of the need to win and depth helps everyone stay focused and able to play at 100% of its performance profile.
  3. Highly-seeded teams that are heavy favorites tend to slack off when they have big leads in games, knowing their next game will be be much tougher, and in the process open the door to the ‘dog for a backdoor cover.
  4. The harder any team has to play to win, the less gas it will have in the tank for its next game.
  5. Teams that play far below their performance profile and win will most likely in their next game regress to their mean and play all over it. For instance, a team that shoots on average 45% from the floor and all at once shoots 28% will more than 90% of the time bounce back and hit in the high 50s in its next outing.
  6. Low-seeded teams that are satisfied to just be in the NCAA Tournament are usually bad bets, compared to serious teams that have some chance to win it all.
  7. Teams that have won on the road and on neutral floors during the regular season show they have before performed well in this situation. Big edge to them.
  8. Coaches who are proven winners, especially at this level of play.
  9. I favor teams that are disciplined and have plays to run under any circumstance. There are two kinds of teams—those of the aforementioned genre and those that seem to free lance most of the time. This is no knock on #1-seed Gonzaga (32-1) or #2-seeded Kentucky (29-5) but they must believe they have enough talent to win playing run-and-shoot playground basketball. Examples of teams who run a set offense include Kansas, Villanova and Wichita state
  10. Always check injury reports to make certain no key players are missing.

There are many other elements to consider in the post-season but this should give you a leg up on handicapping the one-and-done season.

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The Historical Round of 64 results

  • The No. 1 seed is 128–0 against the No. 16 seed (1.000)
  • The No. 2 seed is 120–8 against the No. 15 seed (.938)
  • The No. 3 seed is 107–21 against the No. 14 seed (.836)
  • The No. 4 seed is 102–26 against the No. 13 seed (.797)
  • The No. 5 seed is 82–46 against the No. 12 seed (.641)
  • The No. 6 seed is 82–46 against the No. 11 seed (.641)
  • The No. 7 seed is 78–50 against the No. 10 seed (.609)
  • The No. 8 seed is 64–64 against the No. 9 seed (.500)

Biggest point-spread upsets since expansion to 64 teams in 1985:[44]

  • Norfolk State +21.5 over Missouri 86–84 in 2012
  • Santa Clara +19.5 over Arizona 64–61 in 1993
  • Coppin State +18.5 over South Carolina 78–65 in 1997
  • Hampton +17.5 over Iowa State 58–57 in 2001
  • Middle Tennessee +16.5 over Michigan State 90–81 in 2016

Biggest point-spread upsets in NCAA Championship Game history:

  • Connecticut +9.5 over Duke, 77–74, in 1999
  • Villanova +9 over Georgetown, 66–64, in 1985
  • Kansas +8 over Oklahoma, 83–79, in 1988
  • North Carolina State +7.5 over Houston, 54–52 in 1983
  • Texas Western +6.5 over Kentucky, 72–65 in 1966