Florida Derby Winner Always Dreaming 9-2 Favorite To Beat 19 Others To Finish Line

Rain Keeps Coming Down In Louisville And It Is Supposed To Continue At Churchill Downs For A Cold And Rainy Kentucky Derby Day... Florida Derby Winner Always Dreaming 9-2 Favorite To Beat 19 Others To Finish Line

On 8-3 Run With Baseball Underdogs...The Big One Wins Today

5-0 Run In NBA Playoffs...3rd Straight 25-Unit Winner Tonight

By Kelso Sturgeon

Handicapping today's Kentucky Derby has become much more difficult because of the weather in Louisville where the race will be run for the 143rd time at Churchill Downs. It has rained both Thursday and  Friday and all the races were run in the slop Friday. There is a 90% chance of rain today. So, we just handicap for an off track? Not necessarily because it all depends on when the rain falls.

Showers are likely, but the rain is expected to clear out by the 6:34 p.m. post time for the Run for the Roses.  It also will be unseasonable cool in Louisville, with temperatures in the 50s all day. Just call it a cold, wet miserable day for those in attendance.

If the rain falls only overnight and Saturday morning, one of the fastest drying tracks in the country could be fast, or even lightning fast, for the $2,000,000 Kentucky Derby. The guessing game continues. My suggestion is to handicap the race as if the track will be fast, while giving a modest a edge to horses who have shown they can handle the "off" going.

Ten of the 20 Derby horses have never run on an "off" track but five of them - McCraken, Irish War Cry, Battle of Midway, Practical Joker and State of Honor - all have breeding that suggests they can handle the "off" going.

Florida Derby Winner Always Dreaming Early Favorite

Florida Derby winner Always Dreaming was the 9-2 favorite for the Kentucky Derby as of 7:45 p.m. Friday.Advanced wagering on Saturday's Derby began at 9 a.m. Friday.
Classic Empire, the Mark Casse-trained son of Pioneerof the Nile was initially the 4-1 morning-line favorite and moved Friday to 7-1. Always Dreaming and McCraken opened as co-second choices at 5-1. Irish War Cry opened at 6-1.

Here is the Kentucky Derby field by post position with opening odds this morning, plus jockey and opening odds in parentheses.

  1. Lookin At Lee 25-1 (Lanerie, 20-1)
  2. Thunder Snow 17-1 (Soumillon, 20-1)
  3. Fast and Accurate 33-1 (Hill, 50-1)
  4. Untrapped 60-1 (Santana Jr., 30-1)
  5. Always Dreaming 9-2 (Velazquez, 5-1)
  6. State of Honor 46-1 (Lezcano, 30-1)
  7. Girvin 20-1 (Smith, 15-1)
  8. Hence 17-1 (Geroux, 15-1)
  9. Irap 35-1 (Gutierrez, 20-1)
  10. Gunnevera 9-1 (Castellano, 15-1)
  11. Battle of Midway 38-1 (Prat, 30-1)
  12. Sonneteer 37-1 (Desormeaux, 50-1)
  13. J Boys Echo 42-1 (Albarado, 20-1)
  14. Classic Empire 7-1 (Leparoux, 4-1)
  15. McCraken 6-1 (Hernandez Jr., 5-1)
  16. Tapwrit 30-1 (Ortiz, 20-1)
  17. Irish War Cry 5-1 (Maragh, 6-1)
  18. Gormley 24-1 (Espinoza, 15-1)
  19. Practical Joke 33-1 (Rosario, 20-1)
  20. Patch 13-1 (Gaffalione, 30-1)

Derby Starters With Off-Track Form

  • Lookin At Lee was second in the slop at Churchill Downs last year.
  • Thunder Snow won the $2,000,000 UAE Derby in Dubai in his last start - run in the mud.
  • Untrapped was second in the mud in the in the LeComte Stakes at Fairgrounds.
  • Hence won an allowance race in the slop at Oaklawn Park.
  • Irap broke his maiden in the slop at Santa Anita.
  • Gunnevra was second in his first race in the slop at Gulfstream.
  • Sonneteer finished second  in a maiden race at Del Mar over a "god" track.
  • Gormley won the Sham States over a sloppy track at Santa Anita.

Kentucky Derby Notes

Calumet Farm's Sonneteer is still a maiden and in his last start was 4th in the Arkansas Derby.

The most expensive horse in the field is Tapwrit who was a $1.2 million yearly purchase. He has   $343,902 in earnings.

The least expensive horse in the field is Gunnerva who was a $16,000 yearling purchase. He has $1,170,200 in earnings.

16 of the horses in the face were bred in Kentucky with one each from New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ireland an Canada.

22 Derbies have been won by horses that went wire-to-wire while the race has been won by eight horses that went from last to first.

Just remember one thing in handicapping the 143rd running of this American classic - It is the most wide-open in years and one can make a strong case for for no less than 14-15 of the field of 20 to win it.

5-0 Run In NBA Playoffs...3rd Straight 25-Unit Winner Tonight
I Have Won Back-To-Back 25-Unit Blowout Winners And Intend To Cash Another Ticket On Tonight's Jazz-Warriors Game And Set Stage For Sunday's 50-Unit Winner

There is just one NBA Playoff game on the Saturday night schedule - the Golden State Warriors (73-15) at the Utah Jazz (55-36) - and I intend to win my third straight 25-unit release with it. You can see by my recent record I am on a 5-0 run.
Golden State comes into tonight's game leading Utah 2-0 in their best-of-seven series but it has been the Jazz who covered in the first two games at Oakland. Can they win straight up and again cover tonight on a floor on which they are 30-14 this season?
I believe I have the answer an am releasing this game, as noted, as a 25-unit play and you can win it with me for just $25, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal. The game tips at 8:30 Eastern and will be televised nationally on ABC.

5-1 NBA Playoffs Last 2 Days
5/5...25 Units...Cavaliers (-3) 115, Raptors 94 (Won)
5/4...25 Units...Wizards (-6) 116, Celtics (89 (Won)
5/4...15 Units...Jazz (+14) 104, Warriors 115 (Won)
5/4...5 Units...Jazz-Warriors Over 204.5 (Won)
5/4...Parlay Of Jazz and Over (Won)

Today's Baseball Card Is Loaded With Opportunities To Take Big-Time Stands And I'm Shooting For The Moon With Three Teams That Have All The Edges

It is score-time for my Best Bets Baseball Club today. The three teams I am releasing have the best pitchers, an offense that is in high gear and are being offered to the public with modest betting lines. The edges should win all three and you can get all the money with me for just $15, charged to your major credit card ot to Pay Pal.
Better yet, get on board for a month or the entire season and save a fortune.

Yesterday's Results
15 Units...Astros (-135) 7, Angels 6 (Won)
10 Units...Tigers (+115) 7, Athletics 2 (Won)
10 Units...Indians (-150) 1, Royals 3 (Lost)

My Best Bets Baseball Club is my most popular baseball club and is designed to service the needs of serious but modest betters. Clients receive an average of 2 best bets each day and each team must emerge from my 10-point grading system with at least a 75% chance to win.  
Best Bets are released at the 25-unit, 15 unit, 10-unit and 5-unit levels.
Sign up for the entire baseball season for just $199 and play seven days a week right through the World Series, or test the waters for a month for just $99

On 8-3 Run With Underdogs...The Big One Wins Today
I Have Released 11 Baseball Underdogs This Past Week, Won With 8 Of Them And Today Get The Big Money With 50-Unit Underdog With 90% Chance To Win

You will seldom find me challenging the accuracy of Major League Baseball betting lines but it is a fact this season bookmakers have shown they are living in the past with some of the 30 teams, obviously refusing to acknowledge the improvement of some and the decline of some. No complaint here because it presents and unusual opportunity to win with underdogs - some of them BIG UNDERDOGS, as you can see from the results listed below.
It's score-time tonight with an underdog that grades out with a 90% chance to win, although the betting line does not reflect that. Win this 50-unit baseball underdog tonight for just $25, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal.
8-3 With Last 11 Baseball Underdogs
5/5...10 Units...Tigers (+115) 7, Athletics 2 Won)
5/4...10 Units...Brewers (+138) 5, Cardinals 4 (Won)
5/4...25 Units...Marlins (+115) 1, Rays 5 (Lost)
5/3...50 Units...Angels (+105) 7, Mariners 8 (Lost)
5/1...15 Units...Orioles (+125) 5, Red Sox 2 (Won)
4/30...10 Units...Nationals (+110) 23, Mets 5 (Won)
4/30...15 Units...Cubs (+100) 2, Red Sox 6 (Lost
4/29...15 Units...White Sox (+158) 6, Tigers 4 (Won)
4/29...10 Units...Pirates (+105) 4, Marlins 0 (Won)
4/28...10 Units...Red Sox (+110) 5, Cubs 4(Won)
4/28...10 Units...Rockies (+161) 3, Diamondbacks 1 (Won)