Accounting for Strength of Schedule
Accounting for Strength of Schedule
We've come to a point in the college and pro football seasons that will really mess up lazy or half-hearted sports bettors who don't like thinking through the process. I'm grateful that all of YOU who regularly attend classes here in my Advanced College of Sports Betting will put your noses to the grindstone to maximize your profit.
Perceived football performance can be greatly polluted by variance in strength of schedule. It's possible for a mediocre team to have a great record if they've only played poor opponents. It's possible for a very good team to have a .500 record if they've only played other very good teams so far. That seems obvious. But, I'm continually shocked by how many analysts don't take this into account. I think the main reason is that the TV networks love hyping teams for their broadcasts, and they're not going to go out of their way to mention when somebody's a pretender. Too many casual fans listen to TV or radio pundits and repeat what they hear as gospel.
One of the great consequences of this effort is that you'll notice some teams skew to extremes based on their caliber of opponent. They will really run up the score (and cover spreads easily) against weak opposition. But, they'll get exposed and lose their composure vs. quality (falling well below market expectations). This is more true in the colleges than the NFL. It happens both places. Some of my biggest personal bets and client releases over the years have come on favorites who are going to blow and go for 60 minutes. Finding just ONE of these teams could make your whole season. To read the rest of this article CLICK HERE.
The Bounce Factor
Those who have followed me for years know I am a long-time student of and believer in the bounce factor in handicapping football and basketball. When I was first introduced to this element of as a supporting feature of analysis it was simply known as the "bounce theory". I stopped years ago considering a theory and have used it as a deciding point on many occasions in handicapping and it has produced scores of winners.
There are several college and NFL teams in the positive mode off a negative performance on this weekend's schedule and I suggest you consider this unquantifiable element in handicapping games involving these teams. The following college and NFL teams in the strongest bounce-back candidates are the following.
- Louisville lost last week at home, 45-42, to Boston College as a 19-point favorite and is a 7-point underdog at Florida State.
- Troy lost at home, 19-8 as, an 18-point favorite and is a 4.5-point favorite at home against UL-Monroe.
- Washington State lost at California, 37-3, as a 16.5-point favorite and is a 9.5-point home favorite against Colorado.
- Atlanta lost at home to the Dolphins, 20-17, and are 3.5-point underdogs at New England.
- Denver lost at home to the Giants, 23-10, as 13.5-point favorites and are a pick'em at the Chargers.
This Week's College Betting Trends
USC at Notre Dame - Home team has won and covered in the last 4 meetings. USC on 1-7 ATS skid while Notre Dame is on 5-1 run.
LSU at Mississippi - LSU has covered in 5 of its last 6 road games but it is of note the home team in this series has won and covered in the last 4. .
This Week's NFL Betting Trends
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns - Browns on 0-5 ATS run and stand 5-18 against the number in last 23 games. Cleveland games have gone UNDER by a 10-4 margin in their last 14.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts - Jaguars are 3-0 SU, have covered 4 straight against Indianapolis and are 5-1 ATS In their six games. Colts are 3-0 ATS at home this season.
Complete Betting Trends Available online. Click here to read the entire Football Forecast along with the latest Power Ratings
The Weekend Football Betting Menu
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