Winning Big In NBA Right Now
Winning Big In NBA Right Now...Colleges Begin In 9 Days
I Am Off To A Powerful Start In NBA Basketball And Am Prepared To Enjoy The Same Success When The College Season Begins
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How Sharps are Betting Marquee Matchups
There are so many good games in college football this Saturday that I'm going to skip the Thursday and Friday night matchups in that sport to focus on the showcases you'll be watching on TV in a couple of days. We'll start today's report with a look at how sharps (professional wagerers) are betting tonight's NFL game...then skip right to Saturday's colleges. Games are presented in the order they appear in the Nevada Rotation.
Buffalo at the NY Jets: This one was fairly solid on Buffalo -3 all week. Some stores are starting to test Bills -3.5 as I write this because more people are interested in betting Buffalo at that price than the Jets. Sportsbooks know that the Wise Guys will hit the Jets hard at +3.5 as a divisional home underdog. Each locale will have to figure out how they want to be positioned. It's safe to say that squares (the public) are on Buffalo -3, and sharps will take the Jets +3.5 anywhere they can find it. That could set up a tug-of-war at the key number. Or many stores may just accept public action on the three and root for the Jets. The Over/Under is up a tick from 42 to 42.5.
SATURDAY MARQUEE COLLEGE FOOTBALL
Clemson at NC State: An opener of Clemson -7 was bet up off the key number to Clemson -7.5. Some stores are testing Clemson -8. It's telling that there wasn't buyback on the home underdog. State lost badly to Notre Dame last week, much worse than expected. Clemson is relatively fresh, and starting to get healthier. Many of the quants still have Clemson up with Ohio State in Power Ratings when the Tigers are healthy. Hard to know what number would bring in dog money on this particular puppy. Not much happening on the total.
Ohio State at Iowa: Big number considering the site. Ohio State opened at -17, and has been bet up to -17.5. That might strike you as odd since Penn State barely won on this field earlier this season, and Ohio State barely beat Penn State last week. But, the Buckeyes won stats HUGE over the Nittany Lions, and have a big edge in talent over the Hawkeyes. This is another game that's very much "math-driven." Old school sharps like conference home dogs like Iowa, particularly when the visitor is in a letdown spot. Quants have Ohio State has another Alabama...and that money is in play already at -17. The total has dropped from 54 to 52, which isn't uncommon in Big 10 games played in November.
Virginia Tech at Miami-Fla: There was a huge move here early that shocked many people. Miami opened at -2.5 on its home field, which was already a sign of dis-respect for a host. Home field by itself is worth three points normally, and Miami is a top ten team. THEN, respected money POUNDED Virginia Tech...flipping the favorite and moving the game to Hokies -2.5. That's what I see as I write this. Were the key number of three to come into play, Miami money would hit that hard. At +2.5? Not so much interest because that's been available all week. Somebody important loves Virginia Tech to win this game, and several syndicates are skeptical about the Hurricanes. The total is up a point from 49 to 50, which at least tells you it probably won't be rainy.
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State: Even though this game has only moved a point since the opener, it's the biggest "one point" move that's possible in our field. A favorite of -3.5. has been bet down through the magic number of three to -2.5, where it's held firmly since. Because so many games land exactly on the three, and because the public usually likes taking home favorites, that represents HUGE support for underdog Oklahoma. There wasn't much buy back on a respected home favorite below the key number! If sharps DON'T like Okie State -2.5 in Stillwater, that tells you something very emphatically about their feelings for the Sooners. Sharps loved the dog at +3.5, and will take the dog enthusiastically at +3. We may have to see of a drop to -2 brings in Wise Guy money on this favorite. Two-point jump on the total from 74 to 76. But, points or so cheap on Over/Unders in shootouts that the one-point move on the side is much more important than the two-point move on the total.
LSU at Alabama: Alabama is being Power-Rated at a level that's rarely seen in this sport. There's been some talk that the Tide would be a 9-10 point favorite over Georgia if the SEC Championship game were held today...and the playoff committee has Georgia at #1 in their rankings! This opener of Alabama -20 has been bet up to -21. Some stores are testing 21.5 because the key number didn't bring in dog interest. It might take LSU +22 to bring in aggressive Wise Guy action. Old school guys won't mind the Tigers at +21.5. The quants have Alabama as a super-team...and nothing's happened yet to change their minds.
Penn State at Michigan State: Not much happening yet. Penn State opened at -9. Some stores are testing -8.5 just to see if that brings in any nibbles. It's tough for the public to bet Penn State after they played so badly in the second half on TV last week. Michigan State would normally be a very live dog, but they had a marathon overtime game with Northwestern. Sharps were hoping the public would drive Penn State up to -10...but that seems a remote possibility now. Probably a quiet betting game unless injury news breaks, or a syndicate jumps in big Saturday morning.
Stanford at Washington State: Both teams have looked awful in recent action, yet both are still in the Top 25 of the AP poll. Stanford is dangerous when their Heisman Trophy candidate running back is at full strength. He might be a one-man team! Washington State is inconsistent, but capable of beating anyone when not turning the ball over. An opener of Wazzou -1 has been bet up to -2. The opening total of 53.5 is up to 55.5. I know sharps who are most interested in watching this game to evaluate how both will measure up against Washington down the road.
Arizona at USC: Arizona has been playing great football in recent weeks. USC finally played well in the desert at Arizona State last week after a string of non-covers. An inflated opener of USC -10 was bet down quickly to as low as -7. Trojans money really likes the seven, so we may see a tug-of-war between USC -7 and Arizona +7.5. Earliest money is very happy with its dog position. This is a very late start, and prime time on the West Coast...so it will be one of the most heavily bet games of the entire slate. The total is up from 71 to 73 because nobody's been able to slow down this Arizona offense since they found a quarterback.
How Sharps are Betting NFL Week 9
Back now to take a look at the rest of this weekend' NFL action. The NY Jets cashed the first ticket of the week Thursday night with a surprisingly easy win over the Buffalo Bills. We move to Sunday. Games are listed in Nevada Rotation order.
Denver at Philadelphia: There was a quarterback change here, but no line change. Philadelphia had been -7.5 when Trevor Siemian was the projected QB. Brock Osweiler will get the start instead. The market sees him as just as bad as Siemian. If the line doesn't move from here, Philadelphia -1.5. will be a popular choice in two-team teasers. Though, some sharps shy away from interconference games because some favorites take their eyes off the ball in those. When a line sits at -7.5 this long, you know for sure that sharps would pound the favorite at -7, but most are looking to see what they can get on the dog after the public bets on game day.
LA Rams at NY Giants: An opener of Rams -4 has come down to -3.5. I don't expect the key number of three to come into play. Sportsbooks know that the rested Rams would get a lot of support at that price against the shorthanded Giants. Sharps have made it clear they won't lay more than three with the Rams. Dog lovers already took the four.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans: Possibly a tug-of-war shaping up between New Orleans -6.5 and Tampa Bay +7. Most stores have been on the seven this week, with no interest on the favorite at that price. Sharps tend not to lay this money points in divisional rivalries. But, -6.5 becomes interesting because seven is a key number and Tampa Bay's defense has been awful in recent weeks.
Cincinnati at Jacksonville: The Jaguars have jumped from -3.5 to -5.5, which isn't quite as big a deal as it seems because four and five aren't critical numbers. It is telling though that it moved so hard away from the key number of three. Sharps were thinking 5-6 made more sense for the "right" line given Cincinnati's uninspired play vs. Indy last week. Dog money might come in at +6, or might pass unless the full touchdown comes into play. Sharps that bet the Bengals hard at Pittsburgh learned a lesson.
Atlanta at Carolina: We have a flipped favorite here, as Atlanta +1.5 is now Atlanta -1.5. Games rarely end in a tie, and one isn't a very common number. So, that's also not as big a move as it seems at first glance. But, it is a sign of respect for Matt Ryan's ability to "find a way to win." The Falcons have played some nailbiters this season. You don't want to lay them as a medium or big favorite as a result. If the game's near pick-em, they make more sense. I'm also hearing definite sentiment against Carolina's offense this week too.
Indianapolis at Houston: Big line move when Deshaun Watson got hurt in practice Thursday. He's out for the season, just as sharps were accepting that he was the real deal. A line of -12.5 before the injury dropped down to -7. I expect sharps to fade any move off the seven. Though, it's possible that Indy will get game-day dog support from sharps who think Tom Savage can't be trusted. He's struggled in regular season action his whole career. Indy did show up as a feisty dog in Cincinnati last Sunday.
Baltimore at Tennessee: Much like Rams/Giants in that a favorite of -4 has dropped to -3. Here, it's home favorite Tennessee. The Titans would get respect at the key number of three, so I don't think it will fall that far. I think this will be a solid number through the weekend unless there are injury surprises or a syndicate decides Sunday morning that it's going to hit one of these teams hard
Arizona at San Francisco: The Cardinals opened at -1, with Drew Stanton as their new starting quarterback. They've been bet up to -2 or -2.5 depending on the store. Some sharps are concerned that the Niners are now tanking for worst record given their blowout losses the last two weeks. Others think that this week will be bad, but then next week might be better if Jimmy Garappolo takes over as the new QB. This game does fall into the teaser window, meaning SF +8 or +8.5 would get some consideration. Tougher to tease teams who are tanking!
Washington at Seattle: Speaking of teasers...this game is going to present a challenge to sportsbooks because of that dynamic. Seattle opened at -7. Washington is in a killer schedule stretch that has them facing Philadelphia, Dallas, and now Seattle in successive weeks...with two of those games on the road. There's interest in Seattle, but a line move to -7.5 would bring in A TON of teaser bets which would include Seattle -1.5. Some stores may take this all the way to -9 by kickoff. Others may just live with the seven and root for Washington plus a TD rather than plus 1.5 or +2. On the whole, sharps like Seattle at -7 but would love them in teasers below a field goal. Washington would generate dog interest at +9 because Seattle isn't a blowout team any more vs. opponents who know what they're doing.
Kansas City at Dallas: This is the game everyone's looking forward to. Looks like Ezekiel Elliot will be able to play as his appeals process continues. That caused some interest on the Cowboys Friday morning...moving a line of -1 up to -2. Kansas City would be a popular teaser choice at +7.5, +8, or +8.5. It's hard to blow out the Chiefs.
Oakland at Miami: Oakland has been bet up to -3 in the Sunday nighter, from an opener of -2.5. Miami looked awful last Thursday in Baltimore, but has extra rest. Oakland has been very shaky on the road this season. Hard to love either side beyond playing number value. Sharps liked Oakland enough to drive the short favorite to the key number. Wise Guys would fade any move off the three.
Detroit at Green Bay: Detroit opened at -2, and we're mostly seeing -2 or -2.5. right now. Tricky game because Brett Hundley has struggled badly since replacing Aaron Rodgers as the Green Bay quarterback. But, a bye week could have him ready against a divisional rival in a must-win game for the Packers. Sharps generally HATE Hundley because of his inexperience and slow decision-making in the pocket. They won't bet him unless +3 comes into play, but they will take shots with him in teasers since that game is in the window that crosses both the 3 and the 7 at home time. No sharp interest in Detroit at this price or we would have seen the number driven to the key number of three.