Post All Star Game Handicapping _ NFL Camps Open
Red Hot Oakland Athletics (-145) Get Past Rangers With 50-Unit AL Game Of The Week Win And It’s Right Back Tonight With Another One
My highrollers club made a major score last night with Oakland’s 7-6 win over the Rangers in my American League Game of the week and tonight have another outstanding opportunity to win another 50-unit Run Line Game of the Week with a team that has the potential not only to win but to do that in dominating blowout fashion. Bookmakers are offering a betting line on this game that indicates it will be a close affair. Forget about that. The team I am releasing should run off and hide from its opponent.
The edges the team I am releasing has, and the betting line on that team, all but demands we step in an go for the big money. I am doing just that and you can win my 50-unit Run Line Game of the Week for just $25, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal
The Hottest Baseball Service In America Is Burying Bookmakers From New York To Tokyo And Is Set To Keep Winning Tonight With 2 More Knockout Bets
There is no baseball service in the country as hot as is my Best Bets Club which stands 18- (82% winners) over the past 10 days and the winning continues tonight with two more teams that grade out with a 90% chance to win. Adding to it all, the teams I am releasing are quite under-valued—being offered at bargain prices.
I have solid winning numbers on the two games and will be releasing one as my top Best Bets Baseball Club play at 15 units. Get the money in his showdown contest, plus win a second game, for just $10, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal.
As noted I am on a 18-4 run in MLB and have the edges to take down two more winners today. The teams I am releasing are playing outstanding baseball and have every single edge it takes to win. Get the cash with both these games for just $10, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal. I will let my current record do the rest of the talking.
On 18-4 Run In Best Bets Club Baseball
7/26…15 Units…Diamondbacks (-105) 6, Cubs 7 (Lost)
7/26…10 Units…Yankees (-1.5 Runs -135) 7, Royals 2 (Won)
7/25…15 Units…Brewers (-124) 3, Nationals 4 (Lost)
7/25…10 Units…Athletics (-125) 6, Rangers 5 (Won)
7/24…10 Units…Brewers (-135) 5, Nationals 4 (Won)
7/24…15 Units…Brewers (-105) 6, Nationals 1 (Won)
7/23…10 Units…Diamondbacks (-105) 7, Cubs 1 (Won)
7/22…15 Units…Indians (-155) 0, Rangers 5 (Lost)
7/22…10 Units…Athletics (-138) 6, Giants 5 (Won)
7/21…15 Units…Pirates (+110) 6, /Reds 2 (Won)
7/21…10 Units…Athletics (-125) 3, Giants 2 (Won)
7/20…15 Units…Phillies (-160) 11, Padres 5 (Won)
7/20…10 Units…Twins (-130) 5, Royals 6 (Lost)
7/19…15 Units…Cubs (-150) 9, Cardinals 6 (Won)
7/17…10 Units…American League (-140) 8, National League 6 (Won)
7/17…10 Units…AL-NL All Star Game Over 7 Runs (Won)
7/17…5 Units…Parlay Of AL and the Over (Won)
7/15…20 Units…Rockies (-160) 4, Mariners 3 (Won)
7/15…20 Units…Cubs (-136) 7, Padres 4 (Won)
7/15…10 Units…Parlay of Rockies And Cubs (Won)
7/15…15 Units…Indians (-129) 5, Yankees 2 (Won)
7/15…10 Units…Nationals (-145) 6, Mets 1 (Won)
CAMPS OPENING ALL AROUND THE LEAGUE
The National Field League is open for business ... from Owings Mills to Latrobe to Metairie to Renton and all places in between it's time to pull on the spikes and get down to the nitty-gritty as all 32 teams will be in full-speed ahead camp mode by the time we get to the end of this July week.
There's new head coaches in Arizona, in Chicago, in Detroit, in Indianapolis, with the New York Giants, in Oakland and in Tennessee - so no question all those camps will be getting ultra-scrutiny from their respective fan bases but let's go on record to state that new/old Raiders coach Jon Gruden already has made a big hit with fans of the silver and black after having a local sports bar "host" a major Raiders party that allegedly drew over 500 hard-core fans to the joint (P.S., no alcoholic beverages were served or so we were told!).
Hey, as long as we're talking new head coaches, let's check out the list and tell you what these teams did last year in terms of SU (straight-up) and ATS (against-the-spread) results:
|TEAM||NEW COACH||SU / 2017||ATS / 2017|
|NY Giants||Pat Shurmur||3-13||7-9|
Okay, so camp with the Indianapolis Colts is gonna be a real blast in Westfield, IN as new coach Frank Reich must attempt to show the Midas touch with an offense that ranked next-to-last in the league last year (and a rotten 30th in passing). The Colts' veteran spring into action on Wednesday and the latest word from team GM Chris Ballard is that veteran QB Andrew Luck is "good to go" after missing all last season with shoulder woes. Luck recently advised reporters that he has no pain in his throwing shoulder but the team still plans on giving him an occasional off day in camp and Luck's been quoted as saying, "I'm not going out throwing out 150 balls a day." ...
Also, on Wednesday, the New York "Football" Giants open camp for their vets and last year was a real doozy for this NFC East crew that lost five games by a touchdown or less en route to a 3-13 campaign. Now, first-year head coach Pat Shurmur - yes, the head ball coach of the Cleveland Browns back in the 2011-12 seasons (when the Brownies won a total of nine games straight-up and registered a solid 15-14-3 ATS mark - looks to put all the pieces back together for an organization that's won two Super Bowls since 2007. One major order of business for Shurmur is getting the most possible from rookie RB Saquon Barkley who just signed on the dotted line this past weekend for $31.2 million over a four-year deal. Barkley wound up with a $20.76 million guaranteed contract - now that's really a major money commitment from "Big Blue" - and it'll be interesting to see how many "touches" the former Penn State megastar gets in the first couple of weeks of camp.
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More Camp Notes:
It may be hot. It may be sticky out there ... but the National Football League is open for business and camps are open all 'round the league where they play for pay.
Finally, some real football talk!
Gotta say that we're paying particularly close attention to the quarterback battles in places such as Buffalo and Miami and the New York Jets - ahh, all AFC East teams and all teams that keep dreaming the big dream that somebody out there can finally KO quarterback Tom Brady and the New England Patriots one of these days.
So, here's what we are hearing so far ...
Right now, the Buffalo Bills' depth chart lists A.J. McCarron, Nathan Peterman and rookie Josh Allen (Wyoming) as the #1-2-3 guys on the team depth chart but - let's face it - everyone's gonna have eyes glued this camp season on the 6-foot-5, 240-pound Allen who had his accuracy questioned as a collegian and now must show some real pocket toughness. And do keep in mind there's an "under construction" sign out front regarding the offensive line where LT Cordy Glenn was dealt to Cincinnati and where LG Richie Incognito currently is listed as "retired / free agent". So, Allen may be best served to sit at first but let's keep tabs on 'em throughout camp as the Bills swing into play here on July 25th at St. John Fisher College in Pittsford, NY.
Now, let's chat Miami Dolphins: They claim oft-injured QB Ryan Tannehill will be the starter with the much-travelled Brock Osweiler sitting there as the top back-up but remember right now that Tannehill is just 10 months removed from reconstructive knee surgery after sitting out the entire 2017 season. Tannehill showed decent mobility in the team's OTAs but insiders say Miami is far less than 100 percent sure that this former Texas A&M star will survive the whole season and so keep in mind the likes of David Fales and Bryce Petty also are worth watching this camp season while the Fish get all heated up at the Baptist Health Training Facility in Davie, FL.
Then there's the New York Jets - a team that has not been to the playoffs since the back-to-back (losing) trips to the AFC Championship Games in 2009-2010. The J-E-T-S are placing their future on the right arm (and head) of rookie QB Sam Darnold of USC fame. Sure, Darnold's getting the kid gloves treatment so far while NYJ has 'em third on the team's current depth chart behind Josh McCown (18 TDs / 9 INTs and a decent 94.5 QB Rating last year) and second-stringer Teddy Bridgewater who last saw action back in the 2015 season with the Minnesota Vikings (see 3,231 yards passing with a modest 14 TD passes). If Darnold lights up the world in camp at the Atlantic Health Training Center in Florham Park, NJ beginning on July 26th, then we could have some out-of-the-box controversy coming from this AFC East squad that's a better-than-you-think 22-20-6 ATS (against the spread) during the three-year tenure of head coach Todd Bowles. P.S., no question that the head coach "likes" McCown but in a perfect world he wants to see Darnold starting sometime before we get to the midway point of this upcoming season.
Now that the Major League Baseball All-Star Break has come and gone, it's time to gear up for the final 2.5 months of the season. Today’s coursework will help you get in the right mindset for picking winners.
In recent seasons, it’s become very important to fully understand THE MOTIVATION FACTOR at the team level. The main reasons for that are:
*Some teams who coasted through the first half of the season kick up their intensity in the second half. This is particularly true for playoff caliber teams who had no reason to be “the champions” of April or May…but really do want to be champions in a few months. They have an extra gear, and they start to use it.
*Some teams who played great in the first half of the season start to coast because they have so much margin for error and don’t want to risk any serious injuries. If you have a big lead in your division, there’s just no reason to keep the pedal to the metal. Even if you have an extra gear, give it a rest for a couple of months until its needed again.
*Some teams who played over their heads in the first half of the season crash and burn when the laws of math (or key injuries) finally catch up to them. The first half of 2018 has been notable for so many surprises in both leagues. Some balloons are about to pop.
Or, in shorthand…
*Coasters who looked like 85-win teams will start playing like 95-win teams
*Powers who looked like 100-win teams will back off to 90-win caliber for awhile
*Pretenders who looked like 85-win teams will slump back to look like 70-win teams
Now, I’m not saying those powers will become “worse teams.” But, they’ll get worse results because they aren’t prioritizing games with such intensity. Plus, the manager has room to experiment with lesser players to get them some experience. You lose a game here and there? No big deal. (But, it is a big lead to bettors laying -200 or more on powers who change their mindset!)
What I’ve described to you can be a real problem for stat handicappers or computer programmers, because “the numbers” won’t what’s coming! All these leopards are about to change spots. Computers will still see them as the old leopards. As much as I respect the hard work the numbers guys put in…I’ve always felt I had an edge over them because of my experience and common sense.
Your homework assignment today is to classify EVERY team over .500 now in one of those three categories. Or, allow for the fact that they’ll just keep doing what they were doing. Maybe Cleveland’s going to coast all season because it can in a weak division. Maybe Atlanta isn’t an illusion. Do your best to make those determinations. I’d suggest looking at the following.
*Records vs. other winning teams
*Run differentials vs. other winning teams
*Starting pitcher performance vs. career norms
*Strength of relievers who usually pitch seventh and eighth innings
*Career “second half” records of the manager (big hidden key!)
I know, what sounded like a short, quick homework assignment is starting to get bigger. Do you want to win the rest of the way, or constantly complain that teams aren’t playing the way they had in the first half of the season? Stay ahead of the race! I can think of at least TEN starting pitchers who are about to reverse course from the first half based on their proven career strengths or weaknesses. YOU will be really frustrated the next several weeks if you’re riding those horses in the wrong direction.
That’s it for today’s class. I can tell you that I’ve already done advance baseball handicapping work for the weekend and beyond. I’m very excited about what I’m seeing in terms of today’s discussion. Some sea changes will be starting soon, and they’ll be exacerbated by head-to-head battles. Have time for extra homework? Look at the team schedules for the rest of July for more insight into what I’m talking about.
If you’d like help making smart picks day-by-day year round, KELSO STURGEON’S BEST BETS can be purchased right here at the website with your credit card. Questions about extended service and combination packages can be answered in the Vegas Sports Masters office by calling office at 1-800-755-2255 during normal business hours. The All-Star Break is a great time to start making plans for football season. That’s always been true. That’s why I always have a great early-bird offer for football available during the ASB.
The Dean of Sports Handicapping will be back with you Friday for our next class. We’ve been focusing that weekend report on football of late, and will probably continue to do so for the time being. The NFL preseason is fast approaching. You need to be ready!