How To Beat The 32 College Conference Tournaments
By Kelso Sturgeon
I have for years run with a group of Las Vegas highrollers, handicappers, bookmakers and linemakers and have learned from all of them, despite the fact we each have our own way of continuing to win and survive in a sports-betting arena that is so difficult to conquer it can in a few days reduce a Paul Bunyan --type to a clone of Mickey Mouse. No game for boys in short pants - that's for sure.
I'm more than 40 years into the business but am not the oldest in this group. One of the bookmakers in our Monday morning breakfast meeting has been taking bets for 55 years, many of the $50,000-$100,000 variety, and has only one requirement to take a wager of that size. "I'd love to take your bet but we have to first do one thing....I'll show you my money and you show me yours."
Betting is for every member of this group a business and not a game of marbles. Nobody on either side of the counter or on either end of the telephone line wants to get stiffed. This is a serious informal gathering of people who love the business, understand it beyond the average bettor's comprehension and openly share their knowledge and thoughts. We learn from one another and keep up to date on any happening or trend that might impact the outcome of a game.
That brings me to this week's gathering, where front and center was the college conference tournaments. Thoughts were shared on a variety of the changing handicapping factors and none were challenged. Everyone's opinion on certain areas of tournaments were respected, whether agreed with or not. Just sharing what one thought was important.
No one possessed a Silver Bullet Formula that made one the winner of any single game, whether it involved two nationally-ranked teams or two from the deep and dark woods of the outback. The only thing certain is that one team will win and one will lose.
WHAT I LEARNED MONDAY
Here are some of the things I gleaned at this week's breakfast club meeting - some thoughts fresh and , important. I guarantee all will be important during the conference tournaments.
- Bookmakers show their larcenous side on games where they know far more about some of the 350 teams than does the public, and will make real trap lines to beat bettors.
- How teams are seeded in the post-season tournaments means little as just as many number 5-6 seeds make the championship game. In some conferences, no #1 seed has made it even to the final round.
- Give an edge to teams with solid winning records on the road and on neutral floors.
- Give an edge to any coach who has proven he can win the big ones, whether favorite or underdog.
- Bet teams that were at their best late in the season and will be starting the same players that engineered their success. For instance, late-season injuries that sideline key players can change the performance profile in quite a negative way.
DAILY ACTION IN ALL 32 TOURNAMENTS
Launched Tournament Winner Monday...Another 50-Unit Regular Season Winner Tonight
I am pleased to report I launched the college conference tournaments with a winning 50-unit play from the so-called mid-major Atlantic Sun Conference as the North Florida Ospreys (-8) held off the North Alabama Lions, 76-66. It was a close call, but a winning one - something you will see right up to the NCAA championship game in April. I came back Tuesday with Presbyterian (-16.5) over NC-Asheville in the Big South Tournament and covered by over 30 points, 106-59!!
Keep in mind bookmakers established an almost full-proof algorithm a month ago to make lines that are so accurate they are more difficult than ever to beat. During the tournaments, you can count on the betting line being in play all the way. Edges will be few and far between but I know how and where to find them
I believe I have a built-in edge in the post season because I have charted all 353 NCAA Division 1 teams the entire season and have etched in stone their expected performance profile. Under the new system of making pointspreads, you need me more than ever.
No stone will be left unturned as I will be releasing only the best of the best from the daily menu, regardless of the conference - major or mid-major. In fact, by sheer number of winning opportunities I expect to take as much profit during the conference tournaments as I will during the NCAA-NIT Championships
So As They Say, "What Are You Waiting For?
My March Madness Package, that runs right through the NCAA championship contest in April, will offer from 2-to-4 daily college conference tournament plays each day, plus a host of 50-unit games and at least five at the 100-unit level. My College Conference Game of the Year will go at 200 units.
Get on board for the entire post-season and win right through the NCAA championship game in April for the special EARLY BIRD price of just $99. You also have the option of paying by the day for a fee of from $15-$25, depending on whether a big-game play is on the menu. All major credit cards and Pay Pal accepted.