NFL Training Camps Open

NFL TEAMS HEADING FOR CAMP WITH HALL OF FAME GAME JUST DAYS AWAY...COLLEGES REPORT AUGUST 1

BOOKMAKERS HAVE NEW FORMULA FOR MAKING FOOTBALL BETTING LINES AND SAY YOU CAN'T BEAT THEM THIS SEASON...IS THAT A JOKE?

CHIEFS, PATRIOTS 6-1 CO-FAVORITES TO WIN SUPER BOWL ALABAMA 5-2 CHOICE TO WIN COLLEGE TITLE WITH CLEMSON  2ND CHOICE AT 9-4, GEORGIA PICKED 3RD AT 6-1 

By Kelso Sturgeon

Not to sound trite but in sports betting, as in life, if it is not one thing, it's another. After years of old-fashioned game analysis based on talent, a deep understanding of the sport, knowing why betting lines are what they are, the ability to find winning edges and having the time it takes to fit all pieces of the puzzle together so they give one the picture that determines whether to lay the points or take them, a new and threatening factors have been added to the process.

The challenge comes in the form of artificial intelligence and algorithms, which many bookmakers are using, adjusting and improving their effectiveness every week. It all began late in the NBA season, continued in baseball and is firmly in place for the soon-to-begin NFL and college football season.

I will admit I was hit right between the eyes when it all began. I was having a solid NBA regular season and started off the playoffs in the same winning fashion. About 10 days in, I began to struggle and for a week struggled to pick a winner. This was the result of handicapping under a decades long formula while betting lines were being made with a new and sophisticated methodology based on artificial intelligence and the "logs".  

Clients know I adjusted and quickly turned things around and in the closing days of the NBA playoffs won more 50-unit and 100-unit games than I ever before. I was wide awake and ready for the new challenge of baseball and am having an excellent season. For instance, I went 3-1 Monday, with two of the winners underdogs, buried bookmakers Saturday with a 7-0 Triple Crown win, that followed a perfect 5-0 Friday that included a 50-unit American League Game of the Week winner as Toronto (-160) crushed Detroit, 12-1 and a 40-unit parlay.

I am offering this brief background in order to address the addition of AI and algorithms to the handicapping equation, especially as it will be applied to football.

Bookmakers believe the numbers and equations they have created to aid in the making of betting lines means the end product is almost impossible to beat. To them, one will need a boost from Lady Luck to beat them. Since I beat the numbers late in the NBA playoffs and am having an excellent baseball season, I'm not buying in.

The winning is still there for any good handicapper who puts in the long hours it takes to find the edges that make winners.

These mathematically formulas have a short history and the body of evidence is not large enough to draw any conclusions. There is no reason to start flipping coins to pick winners. Solid handicapping still rules the day and the foreseeable future, including the 2019-20 football season. I do not know how anything can make NFL lines any tighter but the there is the possibility bookmakers can use the new process to make tighter and more accurate college numbers.

My only advice as you handicapping baseball and football is to pay attention and look beyond all the numbers for edges.


NFL Teams Report Beginning This Week With Kansas City And New England 6-1 Co-Favorites To Win Super Bowl

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NFL Preseason Report Dates/Camp Locations

AFC

Baltimore Ravens: Under Armour Performance Center, Owings Mills, MD; Rookies - July 17, Veterans - July 24
Buffalo Bills: St. John Fisher College, Rochester, NY; Rookies - July 22, Veterans - July 24
Cincinnati Bengals: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH; Rookies - July 24, Veterans - July 26
Cleveland Browns: Cleveland Browns Training Complex, Berea, OH; Rookies - July 24, Veterans - July 24
Denver Broncos: UCHealth Training Center, Englewood, CO; Rookies - July 17, Veterans - July 17
Houston Texans: Houston Methodist Training Center, Houston, TX; Rookies - July 21, Veterans - July 24
Indianapolis Colts: Grand Park, Westfield, IN; Rookies - July 21, Veterans - July 24
Jacksonville Jaguars: TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, FL; Rookies - July 22, Veterans - July 24
Kansas City Chiefs: Missouri Western State University, St. Joseph, MO; Rookies - July 23, Veterans - July 26
Los Angeles Chargers: Jack Hammett Sports Complex, Costa Mesa, CA; Rookies - July 24, Veterans - July 24
Miami Dolphins: Baptist Health Training Facility, Davie, FL; Rookies - July 21, Veterans - July 24
New England Patriots: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA; Rookies - July 21, Veterans - July 24
New York Jets: Atlantic Health Jets Training Center, Florham Park, NJ; Rookies - July 19, Veterans - July 24
Oakland Raiders: Napa Valley Marriott, Napa, CA; Rookies - July 23, Veterans - July 26
Pittsburgh Steelers: Saint Vincent College, Latrobe, PA; Rookies - July 24, Veterans - July 25
Tennessee Titans: Saint Thomas Sports Park, Nashville, TN, Rookies - July 22, Veterans - July 25


NFC

Arizona Cardinals: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ; Rookies - July 17, Veterans - July 24
Atlanta Falcons: Atlanta Falcons Training Facility, Flowery Branch, GA; Rookies - July 18, Veterans - July 21
Carolina Panthers: Wofford College, Spartansburg, SC; Rookies - July 24, Veterans - July 24
Chicago Bears: Olivet Nazarene University, Bourbonnais, IL; Rookies - July 22, Veterans - July 25
Dallas Cowboys: Marriott Residence Inn, Oxnard, CA; Rookies - July 26, Veterans - July 26
Detroit Lions: Detroit Lions Training Facility, Allen Park, MI; Rookies - July 18, Veterans - July 24
Green Bay Packers: Green Bay Packers Training Facility, Green Bay, WI; Rookies - July 22, Veterans - July 24
Los Angeles Rams: University of California, Irvine, Irvine, CA; Rookies - July 24, Veterans - July 26
Minnesota Vikings: TCO Performance Center, Eagan, MN; Rookies - July22, Veterans - July 25
New Orleans Saints: New Orleans Saints Training Facility, Metairie, LA; Rookies - July 18, Veterans - July 25
New York Giants: Quest Diagnostics Training Facility, East Rutherford, NJ; Rookies - July 22, Veterans - July 24
Philadelphia Eagles: NovaCare Complex, Philadelphia, PA; Rookies - July 24, Veterans - July 24
San Francisco 49ers: SAP Performance Facility, Santa Clara, CA; Rookies - July 26, Veterans - July 26
Seattle Seahawks: Virginia Mason Athletic Center, Renton, WA; Rookies - July 17, Veterans - July 24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: AdventHealth Training Center, Tampa FL; Rookies - July 21, Veterans - July 25
Washington Redskins: Bon Secours Washington Redskins Training Center, Richmond, VA; Rookies - July 24, Veterans - July 24