More Preseason Starts Thursday
Not To Be Disrespectful, But If You Made This Bet You Are Now A Certified Idiot
Cowboys Billionaire Owner Jerry Jones Is Close To Burying His Team Before The Season Begins
This Dodgers Team May Be One Of Best Ever But The Still Are Not Good Enough To Take Down Astros In World Series
College Football Begins In 10 Days With Florida -7 Over Miami And Arizona -11 over Hawaii
By Kelso Sturgeon
I have handicapped sports for more than four decades and must admit in my early years in the unforgiving arena of laying $11 to win $10, or laying -140 or taking +130, I learned most of my lessons the hard way. Most of my problems early on came from following the prevailing thought of what I was shared by those long in the business. These gentlemen knew it all but in truth knew little and won because they bet on fixed games or were scalpers.
It took my first 15 years in the game to figure this all out—that in reality most, bettors were wagering under what they thought were the rules of the game which were in fact being played by another menu. Because of this it was then an adventure that meant lose, win, lose, win, lose, win, lose, lose etc. Consistency was absent from the old way. In fact, the most consistent run I had came the year I bet on 31 consecutive losers—most of them favorites—at Keeneland.
Just as was the case in betting football, I was then wagering under one set of rules while horse racing, too, was being run under another. Just in case you are wondering if I figured it all out, I later became an agent for three jockeys—Carlos Barrera, Vincent Bracciale Jr., and Arnold Illiescu—who between them won more than 11,000 races.
This brings me to one of the subjects at hand—how to qualify as one who is a strong candidate for Wagering’s Idiot of the Award. No disrespect intended as I have played that role many times.
BETTING IDIOTS FRONT AND CENTER
This past Sunday, the Houston Astros, the 2-1 favorites to to win their second World Series in the past three years, were -550 favorites over the hapless Baltimore Orioles, a team they had buried 23-2 on Saturday. To make things clear, this meant bettors who wanted to wager on Houston had to lay $550 to win $100. Things were equally as challenging on the money line, where one could take the Astros -1.5 runs and lay $300 to win $100.
One would think bettors, including the sharps and wiseguys, would consider the risk vs. reward factor before betting on Houston, but they obviously did not. In Las Vegas almost 100% of the action was on the Astros—straight bets, money line plays and parlays.
Bolstering bettors hope was the fact the American League’s leading Cy Young candidate Justin Verlander (15-4, 2.82) was starting for Houston and it was of note the Astros were going for their ninth consecutive win and were 20-5 in their last 25. Baltimore had lost five straight by a total of 42 runs.
A lock. An absolutely cinch bet. Impossible to lose.
Once again, the betting world was reminded there is no such animal as a team that cannot lose. Think back to two college football seasons ago. UNLV opened the season as a 45.5-point favorite over I-AA Howard and lost 43-40.
Houston followed suit, losing 8-7, in 10 innings to gain the honor of being the biggest losing road favorite in the history of Major League Baseball.
Again, not to be disrespectful, if you wagered on the Astros at the big prices, laying the biggest road wood in MLB history, you can count yourself in the running for Wagering Idiot of the Year. Like it or not, that’s the truth.
Cowboys Owner Jones Just Whistling By The Graveyard
Dallas Cowboys’ owner has superstar QB Dak Prescott in camp but things are a bit uneasy between the two of them as contract negotiations continue. Prescott, in the last year of his rookie contract, wants $40 million per season, Jones is offering $30 million. Jones says the situation is not worrying him.
Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott, maybe the best in the NFL, is not in camp and is hiding out somewhere in Mexico. Dallas has offered him a new contract of $60 million for four years, with $45 million of it guaranteed, but Elliott has said, no deal. Jones says the situation is not worrying him.
What is this all about? Jones did not become a billionaire because he is brain-dead.
For Jones to say he is not worried is disingenuous. It is like being chased by a grizzly bear or being eye-to-eye with a rattlesnake and having someone yell at you, “don’t worry, everything will be alright”.
This all bears watching.
NFL Preseason Resumes On 2-0 Thursday Night
My NFL Preseason Record Moved To 5-1 And Winning Continues In Week 2 With College Football Just 11 Days Away
As I have noted before, information wins in the NFL preseason and I am confident it will provide us with at least five more winners when Week 2 begins Thursday night. I am off to a 5-1 start and, as usual, am working overtime and burning up the telephone lines to stay current on what is going on in the 32 training camps. The hard work should keep us in the winner’s circle in Week 2.
I am confident I will add two more winners Thursday night when the preseason resumes Thursday night. Keep in mind there will games played Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday in week 2.
Thursday Night’s Schedule
Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)
New York Jets (0-1) at Atlanta Falcons (0-2)
Green Bay Packers (1-0) at Baltimore Ravens (1-0)
Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) at Washington Redskins (0-1)
Oakland Raiders (1-0) at Arizona Cardinals (1-0)
5-1 Record In Preseason
8/10…10 Units...Raiders (-4.5) 14, Rams 3 (Won)
8/10…10 Units…Chiefs (-3.5) 38, Bengals 17 (Won)
8/9…10 Units…Vikings (+2.5) 34, Saints 25 (Won)
8/8…25 Units…Bears (-3.5) 13, Panthers 23 (Lost)
8/8…10 Units…Browns (-1) 35, Redskins 10 (Won)
8/1…10 Units Broncos-Falcons Under 34 (Won)
You can win each day games for just $15, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal, but a better bet would to be get on board with one of my three preseason offers (listed below), all loaded with winners and the price is right.
AND DO NOT FORGET
College Football Begins In Less That Two Week
Thursday, August 29
Miami Hurricanes vs. Florida Gators
Arizona Wildcats at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
A LIFETIME OF EXPERIENCE HAS PUT ME AT THE HEAD OF THE CLASS
I have handicapped professionally for more than 40 years.
Past Winner of Vegas Handicapping Challenge, Sands Football Tournament & Public Handicapper Online Challenge
Former AP Regional Sports Editor
Wrote “The Complete Guide To Sports Betting”, published by Harper & Row
Have been written up in dozens of major newspapers… the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times & Washington Post
Have done hundreds of guest appearances on radio and television shows over the years, including a 6-year stint as on the ProLine Handicapping Show (USA Network), where I was referred to as the Dean of American Handicapping.
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