Bengals, Redskins Move Into Race To NFL Bottom With Dolphins
Bengals, Redskins Move Into Race To NFL Bottom With Dolphins…All 0-4 And Looking Hopeless
Oklahoma Remains #1 In My College Rankings As Defending Champion Clemson Falls To #9
Big Ten Front And Center As Ohio State (5-0) Hosts Michigan State (4-1) And Iowa 4-0) Meets Michigan (3-1)
Lying Las Vegas Bookmakers Join The Fake News Fraternity To Mislead Bettors—And It’s Getting Worse
By Kelso Sturgeon
This past week in NFL and college football was just like all those of the past—stunning blowouts, shocking upsets and enough unexplainable outcomes and bad calls to fill a book. When it was over, the Cincinnati Bengals and Washington Redskins became legitimate challengers to the Miami Dolphins as to which is the worst team in the NFL. Denver’s first-year coach Vic Fangio proved beyond doubt he doesn’t have a clue. In the colleges, Oklahoma remained #1 in my College Top Ten as Clemson dropped to the #9 spot.
In the NFL last week, favorites went 7-8 straight up (SU) and 4-11 against the spread (ATS). Home teams were 1-11 SU and 6-9 ATS. For the year, favorites are up 38-24-1 SU and 25-37-1 ATS. In the colleges, those numbers for last week were 44-11 SU and 25-30 ATS. For the year in the colleges, favorites are 294-50 and 177-166-7 ATS.
In last week’s newsletter (out mid-day each Friday) I wrote of the deceptive practices of the big betting syndicates as to how they manipulate betting lines to send you home a loser. Not nice, but it happens. Bookmakers get their second mention of the season for their blatant attempts to mislead bettors. This time it was a big lie they used, hoping to get action on Nebraska which was playing Ohio State.
Vegas bookies put out the word many of the sharps had been sneaking around betting on the Cornhuskers to at least get the cover against Ohio State. When they began leaking that trend to the media, which in turn informed the public, Ohio State was the -15 favorite. Two hours later the Buckeyes were -17, hardly a sign of big Nebraska action.
Ohio State went off -17 at the kickoff and crushed Nebraska, 48-7. I had special interest in this game because I intended to release the Buckeyes as a rare 100-unit play, and I never wavered. Two things were in play in still sending It in on Ohio State—(1) despite the word from bookmakers, the line did not reflect Cornhusker action and (2) I had seen Nebraska beat South Alabama, Northern Illinois and Illinois, while losing to Colorado—and was less than impressed. In fact, I went into game betting with both hands because I had seen absolutely nothing that indicated the Cornhuskers were more than a disorganized untalented lower echelon team not yet ready for the big time.
The lies are only going to get worse as bookmakers seek creative ways to make you bet on losers. Remember, bookmakers are not your friend and have a long history of giving you all the barbed wire you can eat, topped off by a cup of lukewarm coffee and a stale donut.
Auburn, UL-Lafayette, Oklahoma State SMU Perfect Against Spread
As I repeatedly say, the biggest enemy football bettors have is the number—the betting line. Picking winners is easy, beating that betting line is not. Heading into Week #6 of the college season there remain 18 unbeaten teams, but only four that are unbeaten against the spread (ATS). At the other end of the spectrum, we have two NCAA Division I teams that have not won a game and five that have not covered in a single game.
The former are Auburn (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS), UL-Lafayette (4-1, 5-0), Oklahoma State (4-1, 4-0-1) and SMU (5-0, 5-0). The latter are Akron (0-5, 0-5), Florida International (1-3, 0-4), Georgia Tech (1-3, 0-4) Vanderbilt (1-3, 0-4) and Virginia Tech 2-2, 0-4).
Betting lines deserve extra attention after one month of college football because it at this time those making betting lines begin to adjust the numbers, up or down, depending on how a team performed in the first five weeks of play. It is the goal of linemakers to make each team finish 6-6 ATS, and they alter the numbers in hopes they can make that happen.
Popular Betting Teams Current SU/ATS Records
TEAM SU ATS
Alabama Crimson Tide 5-0 …2-3-0
Auburn Tigers 5-0… 5-0-0
Boise State Broncos 4-0…3-1-0
California Golden Bears 4-1…2-3-0
Central Florida Knights 4-1…3-2-0
Clemson Tigers 5-0…2-3-0
Florida Gators 5-0… 2-2-1
Georgia Bulldogs 4-0…2-2-0
Iowa Hawkeyes 4-0…2-2-0
LSU Tigers 4-0…2-2-0
Memphis 4-0… 3-1-0
Michigan Wolverines 3-1…1-3-0
Michigan State Spartans 4-1…2-3-0
Notre Dame Fighting Irish 3-1…3-1-0
Ohio State Buckeyes 5-0 …4-1-0
Oklahoma Sooners 4-0…3-1-0
Oklahoma State Cowboys 4-1…5-0-0
Oregon Ducks 3-1…2-2-0
Penn State Nittany Lions 4-0…3-1-0
Southern California Trojans 3-2…2-3-0
SMU Mustangs 5-0…5-0-0
Texas Longhorns 3-1…2-2-0
UCLA Bruins 1-4…2-2-1
Washington Huskies 4-1…4-1-0
Wisconsin Badgers 4-0…3-1-0
KELSO'S COLLEGE TOP TEN
|1.||Oklahoma||4-0||Big 12||At Kansas (2-4)|
|4.||Ohio State||5-0||Big Ten||Michigan State (4-1)|
|5.||Notre Dame||3-1||Independent||Bowling Green (1-3)|
|6.||LSU||4-0||SEC||Utah State (3-1)|
|8.||Auburn||5-0||SEC||At Florida (5-0)|
|10.||Wisconsin||4-0||Big Ten||Kent State|
Things Will Only Get Worse In The NFL
The quality of play in the NFL is at an all-time low (at least in the 60 years I have been watching) and is only get worse. Seven of the 32 teams are without their starting quarterbacks, all currently out with injuries - some for the rest of the season. Add to that unfortunate factor the front office meddling that has ruined the Washington Redskins (0-4) and the Miami Dolphins (0-4), and the hiring by the Cincinnati Bengals (0-4) and the Denver Broncos (0-4) of coaches who are simply over their heads and without any understanding of how to win a game.
And, let's not forget the lifeless, listless, disinterested Atlanta Falcons (0-3-1) who take the field each week as if they were locked in a coma, or the New York Jets (0-3) who are the most creative team the NFL has seen in years when it comes to finding ways to lose.
Oh, yes, a red warning flag on the Arizona Cardinals (0-3), another team coached by a suspect guy.
At least the Dolphins get their biggest break of the young season Sunday; they are in their bye week. This will give the team the opportunity to work out the kinks in an offense that averages 225 yards of offense (173,2 passing, 51.8 rushing) each game while scoring an average of 6.5 points.
The defense could also help itself in its down time. It gives up 472 yards and 40.8 points per game. Just wait, things will only get worse.