Will The Yankees Keep Cashing In
It isn’t often the New York Yankees can catch baseball fans off-guard with success, but that’s what transpired in the first month and a half of this season. The Yankees have the second-best record in the American League behind AL East rival Baltimore.
Just as notable is that a franchise normally priced high because of their long tradition of success has also made big money at the betting window—if you bet New York each game this year, you’re (+$729), and that’s also the second-best in the AL behind Baltimore. Yankee profits are driven by the fact they’re 8-3 when a moneyline underdog, a winning percentage that’s easily the best in the majors.
This raises two important questions—can the Yankees keep winning and can they keep getting value? The latter question is the easiest to answer and it’s that New York will never stay under the radar for too long. The current futures market is a good indicator—the Yankees are now the 3-2 betting favorite to win the AL East, while Baltimore still sits at more profitable 3-1 in spite of leading the standings. Those numbers are going to show up in the moneylines baseball bettors see on a night-to-night basis.
New York’s success is driven by the best offense in the American League and a core of setup relievers that have been dominant. There’s every reason to think the offensive production can continue. Players like Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and even 37-year-old Matt Holliday are performing at a level that’s both good and sustainable based on their career performances.
And even if you accept the fact that Aaron Judge will cool off his current torrid pace--.411 on-base percentage/.739 slugging percentage, there’s still no reason to think he’ll fall off the map. Starlin Castro (.378/.519) is more likely to come down to earth, but there are also likely candidates to increase production in the months ahead.
Catcher Gary Sanchez has dealt with both a slump and some injuries in the early schedule after coming into the season as the best young catcher in the game. . First baseman Greg Bird, a promising power hitter, hit the DL with ankle problems. If Bird doesn’t get healthy and produce, veteran backup Chris Carter is a good bet to hit home runs in Yankee Stadium. So wherever the production comes from, thinking that New York will continue be at or near the top of the American League in runs scored is quite reasonable.
The bullpen has four arms that set up for Aroldis Chapman—Adam Warren, Tyler Clippard, Jonathan Holder and Dellin Betances—that all have sub-2.00 ERAs. Even if that doesn’t hold, the Yankees actually have room for improvement in the pitching from both Chapman (3.55 ERA) and rotation ace Masahiro Tanaka (7 starts, 4.36 ERA).
The bottom line is this—the Yankees are going to keep winning, but finding the profit margin is going to be more of a challenge. To that end, I invite you to join me for my daily baseball selections.
If there’s anyone hotter than the Yankees, it’s Kelso Sturgeon—I’ve won seven of my last eight games that includes a 50-Unit winner on Friday night when the Arizona Diamondbacks were an easy 11-4 winner over the Pittsburgh Pirates. I also demonstrated my grasp on this Yankee team in going against them with the Astros. Houston won 5-1 and my clients won. Baseball action is going each and every day. Get on board with me.