Examining The NFL Win Props
If you want to start betting football then the NFL win props require attention. Below are each team’s Over/Under, segmented by division with an area for further study noted...
NY Giants: 9
Comment: The number on the Redskins begs further investigation. If the losses of Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson have a debilitating effect on the passing game, then even a modest 7.5 is going to be laughably optimistic. If, however, the coaching of Jay Gruden and the play of Kirk Cousins are the real keys than this number is terrific value for a team that’s exceeded 7.5 each of the last two years.
Green Bay: 10.5
Comment: No real surprises here, although you can make a good case for the Bears actually being too high, when the Browns and 49ers are priced a full game lower. Also worth noting that the market gives the Vikings a slight edge on the Lions even though the reverse was true last year.
New Orleans: 8.5
Tampa Bay: 8.5
Comment: Tremendous optimism for this division with all four teams projected to finish with winning records. A lot of opportunity here as well—if you think the Falcons won’t recover from the Super Bowl collapse, while Carolina does have a bounceback year and fills the void, then hitting both teams on opposite sides makes sense.
LA Rams: 5.5
San Francisco: 4.5
Comment: The Cardinals are the spot that merit further study. In spite of a tough 2016 season, they made the playoffs in 2014-15 and this number only requires a Bruce Arians’ team have a winning season. But are they on an irreversible slide?
New England: 12.5
NY Jets: 5.5
Comment: The Patriots may well finish 13-3, but there’s no value to be found in betting an Over where that record is the minimum requirement. The market clearly sees Miami’s loss of defensive coordinator Vance Joseph to the head coaching job in Denver as a big deal .
Comment: If the Bengals bounce back this is another juicy target. And do you think Hue Jackson can keep his job with the Browns? That Over/Under number might well be the de facto arbiter by season’s end.
Comment: Everyone’s buying Titans stock, as an unaccomplished team is priced the same as the Ravens, Panthers and Giants. I’m not saying Tennessee won’t have a breakout year, but they certainly aren’t sneaking up on anyone.
Kansas City: 9.0
LA Chargers: 7.5
Comment: That’s a lot of pessimism regarding Denver. Even allowing for their QB problems, they went 9-7 last with those same problems and now the quarterbacks have some game experience.
It takes a savvy football bettor to get out in front of the curve and hit the board during the summer while the sportsbooks are relatively quiet. I invite you to contact my office at 1-800-755-2255 and talk to a consultant about a plan for betting NFL futures.