MLB Markets Still Slow to React
MLB Markets Still Slow to React
I wanted to pop in to talk some baseball before the month of June got away from us. Thanks so much to all of you who read the NBA Playoff reports. To me, the biggest story right now in the baseball markets involves how slow oddsmakers and sharps have been to recognize new levels of performance.
I'm currently on a 12-6 run in baseball. The team I've won most often with in that stretch is the Colorado Rockies. This is a very good team that has significantly improved its pitching staff. The market keeps pricing them like a .500 caliber team (now slightly better than that) even though the Rockies established early that they were a legitimate playoff contender. It's now almost July, and the prices still haven't caught up in my view.
Wednesday night I won with Houston on the road in Oakland. It's true that Houston can be expensive AT HOME when one of their best pitchers is on the mound. But, this team is now 24-8 on the road! This is a juggernaut led by a great offense, and they are going to win a lot of games no matter who's on the mound for them. It's always been true that baseball lines are overly influenced by the reputation of the starting pitcher, and not influenced enough by the quality of each team's offense. Sharps usually take advantage of this...but even the Wise Guys aren't doing that enough in Astros road games.
On the other side of the coin, you can make a lot of money fading bad teams who are overpriced. I've been doing that often with the San Francisco Giants. Oddsmakers just won't accept that this is now a HORRIBLE team. The Giants are 20 games under .500 in the standings, and down about 22 betting units because they lost so often early on as big favorites. Basically, the markets have been pricing Colorado and San Francisco like they're about even...while the Rockies turned into the Dodgers and the Giants turned into the Padres. For almost three months!
For those of you who like betting totals...it took forever for the market to notice how many Overs the Mets were playing because of poor pitching but an improved offense. The line is just now catching up to a similar story with the Baltimore Orioles.
Baseball is a sport where smart bettors can grind out a nice profit just by paying attention, particularly to teams who haven't been getting a lot of media coverage in recent years. You're almost never going to get sustained betting value on teams like the Yankees or Red Sox, unless they win at least 105 games. The Astros were in the tank for awhile, so the mainstream media stopped paying attention.
Over in the National League, so many people were talking about the Cubs in the offseason that several stories have been able to sneak under the radar. The Arizona Diamondbacks are 8.5 games better than the Cubs in the NL standings, and are almost 34 units more profitable!
What should you pay attention to if you're just ready to start your 2017 baseball betting right now?
*Keep watching the success stories, because lines STILL may not have caught up!
*Focus on results over the last 1-2 weeks, so you can spot course changes
*Pay more attention to offense, and less to starting pitching
*Pay more attention to middle relief, and less to closers
*Study the weather forecasts because home-run heavy offenses may have big months in July and August
You've probably read those news stories about home run counts jumping way up lately. A few publications have confirmed that baseball construction has changed, creating the effect of a "juiced" ball (even if it's more about the seams than the core). Do some research to find out the most HR-prone pitchers, so you can fade them in these warmest months. Do you know which ballparks help or hurt home run counts? Why not?!
You regulars know that college basketball is my favorite sport to bet and handicap. Baseball has some similarities in that you can find under-the-radar edges worth betting. There are well over 200 college basketball teams on the board in Las Vegas. There are more than 150 starting pitchers in Major League rotations at any given time...and more 200 who will get starts counting the occasional fill-in guys or injury replacements. The mainstream media ignores low profile teams in baseball the same way it does low profile conferences in college hoops. Plus, the day-to-day schedules are busy, which lets you pyramid profits during a season with proper money management.