Football Forecast Issue 2 - Sept 1-5
Volume 18, Edition 2...For Period Of September 1-5, 2016
Copyright property of Kelso Sturgeon and may not be reproduced in any form without written permission
Winning In College Football Begins With Getting Smart And Avoiding Games The Pointspread Makes Unplayable
Only 18 Of 85 Opening Weekend Games Offer Any Edge
Annual 200-Unit College Football Blowout Classic Set To Win Saturday By At Least 40 Points
What You Need To Know To Win In College Football Right Now Plus Five Basic Rules To Give You An Edge
Get Entire College And NFL Seasons For Just $245 All Major Credit Cards Accepted
By Kelso Sturgeon
The college football season is here, the National Football League begins playing for keeps next week and bringing with its arrival visions of big easy money. If you are ready for it those visions might become dreams and if you are not - nightmares. There is no other way to approach it if one wants to win the battle of wits with bookmakers.
As for me, I am as ready as an individual can be and it is my intention to live up to my past performances in burying lazy bookmakers early in the season. Still I as a handicapper am like most football players - nervous before a game and up to speed once I get hit in the mouth a time or two.
Without writing a book about starting the season I want to share with you what I have done for the opening weekend of the college season and what I will being doing each week until the NFL plays the Super Bowl six months from now in Houston, on Sunday, February 5.
The first thing I do in the handicapping after the betting lines are posted is to tediously look at the games and eliminate any game where the number says both teams have at least somewhat of a chance to cover in the game. My focus is always on the number and not necessarily the team.
There are 85 games on the betting board from Thursday through Monday and here is how I looked at each day's schedule:
--On Thursday, there were 16 games schedule and I felt only three of them were candidates to be bet. That means 13 of them were made by the betting line too close to call.
--On Friday, 11 games were on the schedule and I found just two of them worth a bet.
--On Saturday, 57 games scheduled and just 14 of them worth a wager.
--On Sunday, there is just one game scheduled - Notre Dame at Texas - it it deserves a bet.
--On Monday, Ole Miss meets Florida State in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando and is worth a modest play.
That means, according to my figures, just 20 (24%) games from Thursday to Monday are deserving of my wagering interest. Agree or not that is just how I feel after several days at looking at every single game. If your analysis suggests otherwise, jump in. If what you do works for you, go on with it. I have the utmost respect your opinion.
My opinions for Week #1 of the college season has as its foundation two things - (1) an in depth study overall talent and strengths and weakness of each team and (2) very soft betting lines - some far afield of reality - on the 20 games I might use.
If you are not already up-to-speed for the season, please let me go to work for you and help you get the money. I have been doing this for more than four decades and have been successful in one of the toughest arenas in all of sports betting.
BEST BETS FOOTBALL INVESTMENT CLUB
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You will receive an average of four college and three NFL best bets every single week, including some mid-week games. Games will be rated 5-units, 10-units and 15 units.
Games may also be purchased for $15 each day.
Last year I had a subpar season but still managed to finish a strong 20-7 in November in the colleges and went 34-20-2 for the NFL season - and my clients all made money, just not enough by my standards. The encore this season will be far more profitable.
Sign up now right here online or call toll free at 1-800-755-2255 for just $245, charged to your major credit card, and I will even throw in a best bet in baseball for the next two weeks, ending on September 12.
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My Chairman's Football Investment Club is a step up from my Best Bets organization, offering one 25-unit play each Saturday and Sunday, plus some mid-week games, PLUS ALL BEST BETS PLAYS, and membership will cost you a modest $479 for the entire college and NFL seasons.
This club ended the season with a load of profit for members, with those betting $100 per unit taking home a profit of $34,500 and those wagering at the $10 level making $3,450 by going 101-67-6 (60.12% winners) for the season. All in all a 45% return on your investment. All Chairman's Club games are rated 25 units and may also be purchased by the day for $25
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This service is specifically designed for bettors who want nothing but the crème de la crème of selections and only want a limited number of plays. On football days when there is no Personal Best Play (those games rated from 50 units to 400 units) members will receive Chairman's Club games and will have the option of whether to play them. Games are available by the day at charges ranging from $50 to $100.
COLLEGE & NFL POWER RATINGS AVAILABLE 24/7 AT WWW.KELSOSPORTSHANDICAPPING.COM
Best Bets For Saturday, Sept. 3
Home Team In CAPS
MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (0-0) -40 over Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (0-1) - Hawaii performed much better in its 20-point, 51-31, loss to California last week but runs into a lockdown defense in Ann Arbor in a game that has big-time blowout writing all over it. On ESPN at 12:05 Eastern.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles (0-0) +6 over KENTUCKY WILDCATS (0-0) - Southern Miss has returned to its glory days and will take this battle in Lexington right to the Wildcats who will have to show me they can beat good teams before I get on board. On ESPNU at 7:35 Eastern.
UCLA Bruins (+3) over TEXAS A&M AGGIES (0-0) - My figures say the wrong side is favored in this one and I believe in my numbers. The Aggies will certainly bring the heat in this one and in my analysis that says UCLA's outstanding QB, sophomore Josh Rosen will use that aggressiveness to his advantage and rip them to pieces. On CBS at 3:35 Eastern.
Patriots Open Season Without Brady But Still 7-1 Favorites To Win Super Bowl
Here are the opening and then the current odds to win the Super Bowl as posted at the Westgate Super Book In Las Vegas.
|TEAM||Opening Odds||Current Odds|
|Green Bay Packers||10-1||8-1|
|Kansas City Chiefs||20-1||20-1|
|Los Angeles Rams||50-1||100-1|
|New England Patriots||8-1||7-1|
|New Orleans Saints||40-1||60-1|
|New York Giants||40-1||20-1|
|New York Jets||30-1||40-1|
|San Diego Chargers||50-1||50-1|
|San Francisco 49ers||60-1||100-1|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||50-1||60-1|
What You Need To Know To Begin Betting College Season
Handicappers who are serious about making money have their own set of rules - some the work of genius and others so bizarre they defy explanation. That aside, if it's working for you, who cares what other people think? Here are a few thoughts about handicapping football at the beginning of each season.
- Don't go where you don't know. If you spot a game you would like to bet but know absolutely nothing about either team, do not bet it. For instance if you find yourself interested in a game such as the Montana State at Idaho affair Thursday, but really have no know special fact-based insight into the game, leave it alone.
- In the first week of the season, be careful about laying a ton of points in a game involving I-AA and I-A teams if the latter is using the game for a warmup - a fine-tuning for a big game the following week. At some point in that game, the major college team will call off the dogs and start to rest for the next contest, opening the door wide for the backdoor cover. Week #1 games such as Southern Utah at Utah, Fordham at Navy, or Richmond at Virginia are examples of this situation. For certain Utah will be practicing for next week's game against arch-rival BYU, Navy will be getting ready for a tough game against Connecticut and Virginia will be prepping for a cross-country trip to Oregon.
- The home field usually is an edge but experienced teams are still tough on the road.
- In reviewing the potential of each team, give an edge to any team that has a top-tier quarterback who has been successful in the past and has an experienced offensive line in front of him.
Remember, weaker teams may begin the season with enough talent to play effectively during the first 2-3 week of the season, and then they run out of gas and are at a distinct disadvantage against better teams. Conversely, the stronger teams only get stronger each week.
I Said It And I Meant It
Earlier I made three statements and I just want to reconfirm them:
- The Green Bay Packers will win the Super Bowl.
- Clemson will win the national football championship.
- The Cleveland Browns will go 0-16 this season.
Now let's go make some money.