Football Forecast Volume 3 - Sept 8-12
Volume 18, Edition 2… For Period Of September 8-12, 2016
Copyright Property of Kelso Sturgeon and May Not Be Reproduced In Any Form Without Written Permission
My Money Says It Will Be A Packers-Steelers Super Bowl
Panthers At Broncos Kick Off NFL Season Thursday Night With Winning 25-Unit Play
7-2 ATS, Plus 315 Units In Football Last Weekend 100-Unit NFL & College Winners Highlight This Weekend
By Kelso Sturgeon
The National Football League begins its long season Thursday night at Mile High Stadium in Denver where the two teams that met in the Super Bowl last year—the Broncos and the Carolina Panthers--square off. I will be releasing this game as a 25-unit play and on Sunday will go for the big money with my first 100-unit play. Ditto for the colleges on Saturday.
I have had a true knockout opening weekend in college football, finishing 7-2 and up 315 units and let the record show that includes my victory with my annual 200-unit College Blowout Kickoff Classic as Nebraska (-29) buried Fresno State by 33 points, 43-10, and Sunday night’s 50-unit underdog winner as Texas (+4.5) took down nationally-ranked Notre Dame 50-47 in three overtimes.
7-2, Plus 315 Units This Past Weekend
8/5...15 Units...Florida State (-4) 45, Ole Miss 35 (Won)
8/4...50 Units...Texas (+4.5) 50, Notre Dame 47 (2 Overtimes) (Won)
8/3...200 Units...Nebraska (-29) 43, Fresno State 10 (Won)
9/3...25 Units...Western Michigan (+3) 22, Northwestern 21 (Won)
8/3...15 Units...BYU (-1) 18, Arizona 16 (Won)
8/3...10 Units...Texas-El Paso (-9) 38, New Mexico State 22 (Won)
8/3...10 Units...Ohio (-17.5) 54, Texas State 56 (3 Overtimes) (Lost)
8/2...25 Units...Kansas State (+13.5) 13, Stanford 26 (Won)
8/2...15 Units...Georgia State (-5) 21, Ball State 31 (Lost)
I am confident the winning will continue this week in NFL and the colleges. As noted I will offer 100-unit plays Saturday and Sunday—first in the colleges and then in the NFL. As I proved again last weekend, there is not time like early in the season to kick some butt at the betting windows. Credit that to lazy bookmakers who are relying on last year’s figures and an air-headed media that misleads bettors.
Make It Green Bay And Pittsburgh In Super Bowl
It is never easy, and often embarrassing, to declare the two teams one believes will meet in the Super Bowl, even before a single game is played. However I have been doing it for years and always put my money where my mouth is. I am down on the Green Bay Packers at 8-1 and the Pittsburgh Steelers at 10-1 to meet in Super Bowl 51 at NRG Stadium in Houston next February 5.
My reasoning is rather simple. Green Bay has by far the best quarterback in the NFL and this gentleman, Aaron Rodgers, has never looked better or appeared better prepared for a season. He is surrounded by a strong supporting cast and from my point of view all the places are in place to win the National Football Conference championship and the Super Bowl trip that goes with it.
Green Bay has been to the playoffs for seven straight years and last won the Super Bowl in 2010, beating the Steelers, 31-25, as a 2.5-point favorite.
Sometimes one must go with his gut feeling and that is where I am with the Steelers. They have gone to the playoffs the past two seasons and came within a hair of winning the American Football Conference title and a trip to the Super Bowl, especially last year. They are primed to get the job done this time around, with no "ifs".
Pittsburgh has the second best quarterback in the NFL in the person of Ben Roethlisberger and has the best running back in Le’Veon Bell, who has been suspended for the first three games of the season. It must be noted the Steelers had the third best offense in the NFL in 2015-16, averaging 395.4 yards per game and with Roethlisberger falling into the third spot at 287.7 yards per game.
With an improved defense, the Steelers appear to be a team on its way.
A Little Hidden Information About NFL Teams
It is amazing to me the experts and pundits have lost sight of what it takes to win in the NFL and nothing illustrates this more than the betting public supporting Las Vegas bookmakers who predict the over/under on Browns wins is 4.5. That is a ridiculous number that fails to take into consideration Cleveland’s front office, made up of a confederacy of fools and nitwits, who have unloaded 8-9 key players, some of them Pro Bowlers, and replaced them those who will work for far less money.
In the process the team has been compromised for the season and the positive additions of quarterback Robert Griffin III and coach Hue Jackson can’t do it alone. As I have said before it will take a miracle for the Browns to win and I am sticking by my prediction they will go 0-16.
And Then The Hidden Truth With The 49ers
The declared refusal of San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick to observe his constitution right to remain seated for the national anthem is the sum total of what we have heard about the team. His individual campaign against racial prejudice and police brutality may well be legitimate and proper but I question where his head was when he showed up for a news conference wearing a Fidel Castro t-shirt. He must have missed the fact Castro is one of the most vicious of the world’s dictators.
But that is really not the story as the 49ers head into the season. Few 49ers players care what Kaepernick does and most of them just ignore him and his crusade. The real problem in San Francisco is with a team that has a great dislike for new coach Chip Kelly, just as did the Philadelphia Eagles in his last stop, and the tense air in the locker room could be cut with a knife.
The front office has also made a list of things team members cannot do, as if they were children, without facing consequences. This simply added things to a boiling point and San Francisco will begin the season with a team set for a round of mutiny.
Bettors can expect the San Francisco players to perform professionally but there are not 10 players on a squad of 53 that are going to play with the passion it takes to win. If they win, fine; if they lose, fine.
- Cleveland opens its season Sunday as a 4-point underdog.
- Green Bay opens at Jacksonville Sunday as a 4.5-point favorite.
- Pittsburgh opens at Washington Monday and is a 3-point choice.
- San Francisco opens Monday at home as a 2.5-point underdog to the Los Angeles Rams.
It is of note San Francisco is listed at 200-1 at the Westgate Super Book in Las Vegas in win the Super Bowl but the odds offshore are substantial difference. At one you will have to lay $25,000 to win $100. I guess that is tailor-made for risk-takers.
I had a true knockout opening weekend in college football, standing 7-2 and up 315 units and let the record show that includes my victory with my annual 200-unit College Blowout Kickoff Classic as Nebraska (-29) buried Fresno State by 33 points, 43-10, and Sunday night’s 50-unit underdog winner as Texas (+4.5) took down nationally-ranked Notre Dame 50-47 in three overtimes.
As noted he NFL begins Thursday night with a 25-unit Chairman’s Club play on the nationally televised Super Bowl rematch of the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos and I intend to begin the season in just the same manner I crushed the opening weekend o the college season. The game is available for $25 or as part of your Chairman’s Club membership.
BEST BETS FOOTBALL CLUB
Just $245 For The Entire Season
My Best Bets Football Club is my most popular club. When you join you get....
1.The entire college football season
2. The entire NFL regular season which begins Thursday night when last year’s Super Bowl opponents - the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos - meet on national TV.
You will receive an average of four college and three NFL best bets every single week, including some mid-week games. Games will be rated 5-units, 10-units and 15 units.Games may also be purchased for $15 each day. Last year I had a subpar season but still managed to finish a strong 20-7 in November in the colleges and went 34-20-2 for the NFL season - and my clients all made money, just not enough by my standards. The encore this season will be far more profitable. Sign up now on this website or toll free at 1-800-755-2255 for just $245
CHAIRMAN’S FOOTBALL CLUB
Just $479 For The Entire Season - Won 25 Units Saturday with W. Michigan (+3) outright over Northwestern 22-21
My Chairman’s Football Club is a step up from my Best Bets organization, offering one 25-unit play each Saturday and Sunday, plus some mid-week games, PLUS ALL BEST BETS PLAYS, and membership will cost you a modest $479 for the entire college and NFL seasons. Games are also available on a daily basis for $25. Sign up now on this website or toll free at 1-800-755-2255 for just $479
PERSONAL BEST FOOTBALL CLUB
Just $1,499 For The Entire Season - Won 200 Units on Nebraska Saturday, and 50 Units on Texas Sunday!
My Personal Best Football Club is the club of choice for many of the country’s highrollers - those betting at least $1,000 per game - and has a long history of success. Last season, the club, which offers 50, 100, 200 and even 400-unit plays - went 31-17-3 (64.6% winners) and those betting $100 per unit won $95,550.
This service is specifically designed for bettors who want nothing but the crème de la crème of selections and only want a limited number of plays. On football days when there is no Personal Best Play (those games rated from 50 units to 400 units) members will receive Chairman’s Club games and will have the option of whether to play them. Games are available by the day at charges ranging from $50 to $100. Sign up now or toll free at 1-800-755-2255 for just $1,499
Heavy College Favorites That Might Be Looking Ahead
One important element in the handicapping process deals with a team’s schedule that creates a situation that may impact heavily favored teams covering the number. The "look-ahead" factor can cause some teams to go full-steam ahead to put such a game out of reach in the first half and then coast home with a vanilla offense in the second. The back-door cover is always a threat in games such as this and here is a list of some of the big "look-ahead" games for Saturday.
- Oklahoma (-46.5) vs. UL-Monroe...Plays Ohio State at home next week.
- Ohio State (-29) vs. Tulsa...Plays at Oklahoma next week.
- Auburn (-19) vs. Arkansas State...Plays Texas A&M at home next week.
- Alabama (-28.5) vs. Western Kentucky...Plays at Ole Miss next week.
- Oregon (-24.5) vs. Virginia...Plays at Nebraska next week.
- Southern California (-16.5) vs. Utah State...Plays at Stanford next week.
- UCLA (-26.5) vs. UNLV...Plays at BYU next week.
Please keep in mind while the following games fit this profile, this is not to suggest they will not win and cover.
College Handicapping Facts And Figures
Here are some facts t keep in mind when handicapping the college schedule this week.
- Charlotte (+38.5), which lost 70-14 at Louisville last week, has lost 11 straight games since moving up to the major college NCAA-1 level, and is 1-1-9 against the spread (ATS) in those games. At Elon this Saturday.
- Eastern Michigan (-38.5)snapped an 11 game losing streak in its opener with a 61-14 win over I-AA Mississippi Valley State, a team that went 1-10 last season. Eastern stands 7-41 in its last 48 games and is at Missouri Saturday.
- Georgia Tech (-3), which beat Boston College, 17-14, in Dublin, is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games. Hosts I-AA Mercer this week.
- Hawaii (+38.5) lost at Michigan, 63-3, and has given up an average of 57.0 points in its first two games—against California and the Wolverines. The Rainbow Warriors stand 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 board games. Host I-AA Tennessee-Martin this week.
- Iowa State (-9.5) opened with a loss, 25-20, to I-AA power Northern Iowa and now stands 8-29 in its last 37 games. At Iowa Saturday.
- Kansas(-30) snapped a 15-game losing streak with a season-opening 55-6 victory over I-AA Rhode Island. The Jayhawks are now 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games and host Ohio Saturday
Kelso’s College Football Top 30
1. Clemson (1-0) - Still believe Tigers are the best...Vs. Troy
2. Alabama (1-0) - Not far behind top one...Vs. Western Kentucky
3. Houston (1-0) - No question - the real deal...Vs. Lamar
4. Stanford (1-0) - Should win PAC-12 in breeze...Vs. Southern California
5. Florida State (1-0)...Far better than I thought...Vs. Charleston Southern
6. Ohio State (1-0)...May be better than this...Vs. Tulsa
7. Louisville (1-0)...Good enough to make playoffs...At Syracuse
8. Michigan (1-0)...Has much to prove...Vs. Central Florida
9. Iowa (1-0)...Just reloaded...Vs. Iowa State
10. Boise State (1-0)...Talented enough to run the table...Vs. Washington State
11. Georgia (1-0)...Will only get better...Vs. Nicholls State
12. Oklahoma (0-1)...Looking for redemption...Vs. UL-Monroe
13. Notre Dame (0-1)...Also looking for redemption...Vs. Nevada
14. Washington (1-0)...Best team in years...Vs. Idaho
15. Texas (1-0)...Win over Notre Dame no fluke...Vs. UTEP
16. Wisconsin (1-0)..Much better than advertised...Vs. Akron
17. LSU (0-1)...Needs to find offense...Vs. Jacksonville State
18. Utah (1-0)...As talented and tough as they come...Vs. BYU
19. Oklahoma State (1-0)...One of best offenses in football...Vs. Central Michigan
20 .UCLA (0-1)...Outstanding QB but many questions...Vs. UNLV
21. North Carolina (0-1)...Talent to beat anybody...At. Illinois
22. Baylor (1-0)...Looks like another offensive juggernaut...Vs. SMU
23. Miami (1-0)...Talent there to do great things...Vs. Florida Atlantic
24. Ole Miss (0-1)...May live up to pre-season expectations...Vs. Wofford
25. San Diego State (1-0)...Most underrated team of 2016...Vs. California
26. Texas A&M (1-0)...Strong start, much to prove...Vs. Prairie View A&M
27. Oregon (1-0)...Needs for defense to step up...Vs. Virginia
28. Kansas State (1-0)...Much better than expected...Vs. Florida Atlantic
29. Tennessee (1-0)...Top team has to prove it to me...At *Tennessee *Played at Bristol Tennessee speedway
30. TCU (1-0)...Another one with much to prove...Vs. Arkansas