Football Forecast NFL Week 1
Volume 18, Edition 3… For Period Of September 10-12, 2016
Copyright Property of Kelso Sturgeon and May Not Be Reproduced In Any Form Without Written Permission
Sometimes You Win When You Bet Against Yourself And With That A Deep Lesson In Football Handicapping
We Opened NFL Season With Denver's Upset Of Panthers And Sunday Go For Big Money With 100-Unit Stunner
By Kelso Sturgeon
I am off to a successful start in both college football and the National Football League and I would be remiss if I did give all the credit to bookmakers of the world for Thursday's upset win by the Denver Broncos over the Carolina Panthers. As did the masses, I "loved" Carolina minus a mere 3 points and was a bit miffed at myself for not betting it early, because it was certainly going to go to -4 or -5.
The facts: it never moved off the -3 even though bookmakers were loaded with one-sided action on Carolina. Bookmakers do not give away money. Was something up? What had I and the betting public missed? Regardless all the red flags went up and made me do something I rarely do - bet against myself.
Here is what I said and predicted in my written analysis of the game.
DENVER BRONCOS (0-0) +3 over Carolina Panthers (0-0)
Prediction: Broncos by 6-7
Comments: "This may well be the most contrarian play of the season, for reasons hidden from the betting public. I say "contrarian" because even though sportsbooks are loaded with one-sided action on the Carolina Panthers, the team Denver beat 24-10 in last season's Super Bowl, they have not moved off the number of the Panthers -3. Since I trust no one in the betting world, this tells me something is going on here. The heavy action on Carolina and the fact bookies won't move the number screams out an open invitation to wager on the latter. This is one party I refuse to attend. Denver won the Super Bowl with its quick, aggressive and disrupting defense last year and I think the same thing will happen tonight."
Yes, really, I bet against myself.
In the end, the bookmakers knew what they were doing as the Broncos won, 21-20, at the +3 and I and my clients won a 25-unit Chairman's Club bet because of the actions, or lack of actions, by bookmakers. This gift win from the other side of the counter proved that one cannot always have the answers, especially when the facts fly in the face of reality.
The Most Important Rule For Handicapping Week 1 Of NFL Season
The biggest mistake NFL bettors can make in Week #1 of the regular season is to assume what they saw in the preseason is what they will get now that its all for keeps. It matters not the Houston Texans, Baltimore Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles and the Minnesota Vikings went 4-0 in their exhibition games. Likewise it means little the Cleveland Browns and the New Orleans Saints went 0-4.
It means nothing the Arizona Cardinals were out scored by 26 points as they went 1-3 in August. They still remain one of the favorites to make it to the Super Bowl. Likewise it means nothing the Ravens led the preseason in scoring with 102 points in their four games.
No more offenses playing under cover against vanilla defenses. It is for real now - a new season where each of the 32 teams will come out firing their best shot.
It also is important to remember no American sport receives more intense study that does the NFL and that naturally makes winning more difficult and emphasizes the importance of half points, especially if they are attached to the key numbers of 3, 6, 7, 10, 13 and 14.
When possible I always buy the half-point, up or down, on any betting line that is a key number. Meantime don't by up or down off dead numbers such as 5 and 8.
100-Unit College Stunner Set To Win Saturday
My highrollers buried their bookmakers this past week with two knockout winners - one a 200-unit play and the other a 50-unit underdog that pulled off the outright upset - and I assure you this is just the beginning of what I expect to be one of my best football seasons ever. I have the utmost respect for betting lines but those making them are human and sometimes overwhelmed with the volume of games they have to rate. I happen to agree with them on most of their offerings and know the pointspread will be in play until the final seconds tick off the clock.
And then there are those handful of games in which bookmakers err and offer a powerful but less popular team with an extremely soft line. In games such as this, I do not worry about the points and half-points that make me sweat in both games. To me it is dominating blowout time - and we have just such a matchup on the schedule tonight.
You can join with my highrollers and take down all the money this line-crushing 100-unit play for just $50, charged to your major credit card. If you are a big player my advice to you is to get on board with a membership in my Personal Best Football Club for those who want to send it in on a limited number of plays each week. It will cost you just $1,499 for the entire college and NFL seasons.
Highrollers 2-0, Up 250 Units Last Week
9/4…50 Units…Texas (+4.5) 50, Notre Dame 47 (2 Overtimes) (Won)
9/3…200 Units…Nebraska (-29) 43, Fresno State 10 (Won)
My Personal Best Football Investment Club is the club of choice for many of the country's highrollers - those betting at least $1,000 per game - and has a long history of success. Last season, the club, which offers 50, 100, 200 and even 400-unit plays - went 31-17-3 (64.6% winners) and those betting $100 per unit won $95,550. This service is specifically designed for bettors who want nothing but the crème de la crème of selections and only want a limited number of plays. On football days when there is no Personal Best Play (those games rated from 50 units to 400 units) members will receive Chairman's Club games and will have the option of whether to play them. Games are available by the day at charges ranging from $50 to $100.
Nationally Televised Saturday Night Shocker Tops 3-0 Day
My Best Bets Football Investment Club is off to dynamite start and is coming off a weekend in which it went 5-2 and is coming right back to to try to get it done on a 3-0 Saturday that will be highlighted by a nationally televised contest between a highly underrated and a highly overrated one. Believe me, the line on this game is far afield and the underrated team I am releasing could easily win in blowout fashion. It even comes with a bonus in that you can watch it on national TV. I am releasing this team as a 15-unit Saturday night winner, along with two 10-unit games, and you can win all three games for just $15, charged to your major credit card.
BEST BETS FOOTBALL CLUB
Just $245 For The Entire Season
My Best Bets Football Investment Club is my most popular club. When you join you get….
The entire college football season.
The entire NFL regular season.
You receive with your membership from 4-6 college and NFL plays each week, all rated from 5-15 units.
Sign up in the Internet or toll free at 1-800-755-2255 for just $245, charged to your major credit card. Games can always be purchased for $15-$20 per day.
The Folly Of 1-2-Step Football Handicapping
I love to play on teams in negative bounce form, especially when they have crushed in their previous game. That said, there is far more to using the bounce factor than just blindly betting. There are six such games on the schedule today and let's discuss one of those - the contest in Los Angeles between Southern California (0-1) and Utah State (1-0). Even though USC was a 13.5 point underdog against top-ranked Alabama and last two the Crimson Tide an utterly embarrassing, 52-6, the Trojans and probably have the talent to win and cover that number - but will they? While USC is anxious to wipe away the loss to Alabama, that is but one hidden element in handicapping this game. USC opens its PAC-12 season at Stanford next week and may play under wraps against the less-talented Aggies and not come close to covering.
How About The Sooners Who Are 47-Point Favorites?
There is no football team in the country looking for redemption more than the Oklahoma Sooners, a top 5 team that was buried last week by the Houston Cougars 33-23 as a 13.5-point betting choice. They will take the field in Norman Saturday as a 47-point favorite over a weak UL-Monroe and should crush the Warhawks by any score they wish. But will they? Oklahoma was thoroughly embarrassed by the Houston loss before a national TV audience and, like USC, wants to wipe that game from the world's mind. I mean this team still thinks if can play for the national championship.
There is one hitch in all of this - the Sooners host powerful Ohio State on national TV next week in a contest in which they can regain their reputation among college football's elite. My money says they will wrap the win up early in this one and coast home as their focus definitely is on Ohio State. Do as you wish but I would never lay the 47 in a situation such as this.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS
Arkansas Razorbacks (1-0) +7.5 by 3 over TCU HORNED FROGS - Neither one of these teams performed up to expectations in their openers, with TCU (-35) beat I-AA South Dakota State, 59-41, and with Arkansas (-21) life and death to beat Louisiana Tech, 21-20. I think both sides will show up for this one and the edge belongs to the Razorbacks
Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-0) +29 over OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (1-0) - Tulsa (-3.5) and its high-octane offense crushed San Jose State, 45-10, last week and will put points of the board in this one. Ohio State (-27.5) won an Urban Meyer-ego pleaser last week over Bowling Green and have two things working against it in this game - the fact Tulsa can score and the fact they won't show much because they face a tough one next week at Oklahoma. Make it the Buckeyes by 20-21.
NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (0-1) -28 by 35-38 over Nevada Wolfpack (1-0) - Nevada is catching incentive-driven Notre Dame in major bounce-back form today and eager to put last week's 50-47 two-overtime loss at Texas far from its memory. In this situation, and most others, Nevada simply does not have the horses to keep it close.
100-Unit NFL Kickoff Classic Wins In Blowout Sunday And Follows Up 200-Unit College Classic Last Week When Nebraska Crushed Fresno State 43-10
This is no knock on bookmakers who always get my respect - and I must credit them for making me win with underdog Denver this past Thursday - but they are dead wrong on one of today's NFL games and have set the stage for my highrollers club to hit them broadside with a 100-unit play on what is obviously one of the most under-rated teams in the league. This is the first year I have kicked off the NFL with what will be heretofore always be known as my 100-unit NFL Kickoff Classic. I have opened the college season for the past several years with my 200-unit College Blowout Kickoff Classic (I won this year's game last Saturday as Nebraska (-29) buried Fresno State 43-10). And now I add the NFL to the same status,. The team I am releasing today has 95% of the edges it takes to dominate to win and you can cash a big ticket on this game today for just $50, charged to your major credit card. Better yet join my Personal Best Football Club for highrollers (those betting at least an average of $1,000 per game) for the entire season and save a fortune.
For the record my highrollers are 2-0 on the season with these games. 2-0, Up 250 Units Last Week
9/4…50 Units…Texas (+4.5) 50, Notre Dame 47 (2 Overtimes) (Won)
9/3…200 Units…Nebraska (-29) 43, Fresno State 10 (Won)
Nationally Televised Sunday Night Winner Closes 3-0 NFL Day
New England Was Favored In 17-of-18 Games Last Season And Opens Tonight At Arizona As 6.5 Underdog But Can They Still Pull Off Upset Without QB Brady? Few teams in NFL history have pulled off surprising wins as many times as have the New England Patriots - a team that keeps find ways to win when the odds say they are almost certain to lose. This thought brings us to tonight's nationally-televised (NBC) game that finds the Patriots 6.5 underdogs at the Arizona Cardinals.
The reason for this situation has everything to do with the suspension of superstar quarterback Tom Brady (a foolish 4-game suspension for the evils of so-called DeflateGate) who has started every Patriots game since 2001. Third-year backup Jimmy Garoppolo (2nd round pick out of Eastern Illinois) will start in Brady's place and it must be noted he has seen but mop-up action in his short career.
Does this mean coach Bill Belichick, one of the all-time reigning geniuses of football, can pull another miracle out of the hat? I have the answer to that question and will be releasing this Sunday night affair as my top Best Bets Football Club play at 15 units. You can get the cash with me on this game, plus receiver two other releases, for just $15, charged to your major credit card.
NFL BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (0-0) -4 by 9-10 over Cleveland Browns (0-0) - The Eagles will start rookie Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) against a dreadful Browns team and should he falter he will be replaced by a very competent Chase Daniel. I am sticking by my prediction the Browns have so little talent they will go 0-16 this season.
Oakland Raiders (0-0) +1.5 over by 6-7 NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (0-0) - My figures say the Raiders will be the surprise team of the season and they certainly have the ability to knock off a Saints team that does not have the speed and quickness to stay up with the. It is going to be a banner year for Oakland QB Derek Carr.
Miami Dolphins (0-0) +10.5 over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (0-0) - I give Miami very little chance to win this game but I find it very difficult to lay 10.5 points with any team during Week #1 of the season. I'm predicting a 6-7-points Seattle win.