Football Forecast Issue 7 - Oct 6-10, 2016
Volume 18, Edition 6… For Period Of October 6-10, 2016
Copyright Property of Kelso Sturgeon and May Not Be Reproduced In Any Form Without Written Permission
OCTOBERAMA ROLLS ON THIS WEEKEND!
Now 4-2 and Plus 65 units
50-Unit College Game Set To Win Saturday & 100-Unit NFL Blowout Sunday Will Bury Bookmakers
Click here to join my annual 4-Week Win Riot of Special Situation games. Runs through Monday, Oct 31 - Just $150
Hurricane Mathew Is Having Impact On College Games
List Of College Coaches Who Cover, Even When They Don't Win
I Know What's Wrong With Lackluster Jets, Plus Key Player Injury Report
By Kelso Sturgeon
Five games into the college football season and four into the NFL bettors should have a decent line on all 160 teams we bet on each week. Bettors know Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson are the leading contenders to win college's national championship and that high-profile teams such as Florida State LSU, Notre Dame, Southern California and Oregon are not. In the NFL things are not so obvious but with the return of Tom Brady at quarterback for New England one suspicions the other 31 teams will have to beat the Patriots to win the Super Bowl. Habits are hard to break.
The biggest college game of the weekend finds 9th-ranked Tennessee (5-0) at 8th-ranked Texas A&M (5-0) and in another important matchup, undefeated 5th-ranked Washington ((5-0) at Oregon (2-3).
From the viewpoint of bettors, the college season has reached an important juncture. History says the best teams will start to get better and lesser teams will begin to decline in their performance profile. Its all about talent and depth. If a team such as Alabama losers a starter at any position, the next man up is a blue-chip player who will be simply be plugged in and there will be no loss in the Crimson Tide's ability. At the other end of the spectrum, good teams with a solid group of starters will slowly fall apart because of injuries. When a starter at Central Michigan goes down, there is no quality player to replace him.
That is just one thing to keep in mind heading into the weekend's play, because it is already happening. There are 45 college games on the Saturday schedule and my figures say only 18 of them offer bettors edges that can produce winners. In the NFL, ever game is playable, despite the tightest betting lines ever. One just needs to find the little edges that mean everything in a world ruled by half-points and single points.
Off To Perfect 3-0 Start This Week!
25 Units...Louisiana Tech (+3) 55, Western Kentucky 52 (Won)
15 Units...Cardinals (-3.5) 33, 49ers 21 (Won)
15 Units...Arkansas State (+7.5) 27, Georgia Southern 26 (Won)
Best Bets Club Set For 2-0 College Football Friday
One Favorite, One Underdog Set To Get It Done Tonight To Build Your Bankroll For Another Giant Knockout Weekend
The Friday night football schedule is as unattractive as it can get but that means little in the world of betting. We don't care what the matchups are - we care only if we can win a bet. I intend to do just that tonight with a rather stunning underdog and a favorite that is being offered at a price off by no less than a touchdown - maybe more.
I am confident I will win both these games and you can use them to head into the weekend with an expanded bankroll that positions you to keep winning on the man's money. As noted, the schedule is unattractive - but the winners are there. CLICK HERE to go 2-0 with me tonight with two very attractive winners for just $15
Friday Night College Football Schedule
Clemson Tigers (5-0) at Boston College Eagles (3-2) Kickoff at 7:30...On ESPN
SMU Mustangs (2-3) at Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-1) Kickoff at 8:00...On ESPN2
Massachusetts Minutemen (1-4) at ODU Monarchs (3-2) Kickoff at 8:00...No National TV
Boise State Broncos (4-0) at New Mexico Lobos (2-2) Kickoff at 9:00 Eastern...On CBS Sports Network
Hurricane Mathew Controls Southern Football
Hurricane Matthew has taken control of southern football for this weekend. Five games have been postponed and there may be more, depending on what the storm does. As are all hurricanes, this one is quite unpredictable. At this writing the five games that have been impacted are:
--Friday night's Tulane at Central Florida game has been postponed to November 5.
--Saturday's Massachusetts at Old Dominion will be played Friday.
--Saturday's Charlotte at Florida Atlantic has been moved to Sunday.
--Saturday's Georgia at South Carolina game has been moved to Sunday.
--LSU at Florida has been postponed but no date has been set for when it will be played
Games facing postponement include Florida State at Miami, Army at Duke, Virginia Tech at North Carolina, Syracuse at Wake Forest and Notre Dame at N.C. State. Bettors need to check on the status of all games in the path of the hurricane and make certain they are aware of the weather at the game site.
In the NFL the Tennessee Titans game at the Miami Dolphins is also in question.
Bounce-Back College Teams
I am a strong believer in the bounce-back theory in college football (not so much in the NFL. The bounce theory simply says a team that played far below or far above its performance profile will regress to the mean in its next games. Here are college teams in bounce-back form for Saturday. I am listing only the teams that played far below their profile in their last games because they bounce and win at a much higher percentage than those coming bouncing downward off a giant win.
--Arizona State against UCLA.
--Central Michigan against Ball State.
--Cincinnati at Connecticut.
--Florida State against Miami.
--Nevada against Fresno State.
--San Diego against UNLV.
--Stanford against Washington State.
COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR SATURDAY
Miami-OH Redhawks (0-5) +8 over AKRON ZIPS (3-2) - Miami-OH has played all its opponents tough and is much better than its winless record. It would not surprise me if the Redhawks won straight up.
BYU Cougars (2-3) +5.5 over MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS (2-2) - BYU has all the edges in this game other than the home field and my figures say it has the experience and depth to get the outright win in East Lansing. Michigan State is a very young team, is beat up physically and does not have what it takes to go the distance against a very experienced and physical BYU team.
TCU Horned Frogs (3-2) -25 by 42 over KANSAS JAYHAWKS (1-3) - TCU should take over from the get-go and bury a Kansas team that is 1-15 in its last 16 games and has beaten but one NCAA Division I team in the past two seasons.
Houston Cougars (5-0) -17 by 28 over NAVY MIDSHIPMEN (3-1) - Navy showed last week in a 28-14 loss at Air Force that it is not a very good team and is in a rare rebuilding year. The Middies don't have enough offense to keep up with 6th-ranked Houston, a team outscoring its opponents by an average of 33 points per game.
San Diego State Aztecs (3-1) -14.5 by 21 over UNLV REBELS (2-3) - San Diego State has a tremendous edge in talent and experience and comes into this game in major bounce-back form off a stunning 42-24 loss at South Alabama as an 18-point favorite. This is he best San Diego State team in years and you can take it to the bank the Aztecs will come to play in this one and wipe away last week's embarrassing loss.
Saturday's College Betting Menu
50-Unit Rivalry Classic
Florida State Seminoles (3-2) at Miami Hurricanes (4-0)...On ABC
Arizona Wildcats (2-3) at Utah Utes (4-1)...On Fox Sports 1
50-Unit College Game Of Week
Won Last Week's 50-Unit Play With Troy (-15) 34-13 over Idaho
Chairman's Club 6-1 This Season...Wins Another 25-Unit Play Saturday
Chairman's College Games This Season
10/1...25 Units...Minnesota (+3.5) 26. Penn State 29 (Won)
9/25...25 Units...Pittsburgh (+7.5) 36, North Carolina 37 (Won)
9/22...25 Units...Clemson (-10.5) 26, Georgia 7 (Won)
9/17...25 Units...Colorado (+18) 28, Michigan 45 (Won)
9/10...25 Units...Middle Tennessee (+3.5) 24, Vanderbilt 47 (Lost)
9/3...25 Units...Western Michigan (+3) 22, Northwester 21 (Won)
9/2...Kansas State (+13.5) 13, Stanford 26 (Won)
Nationally Televised Tennessee At Texas A&M Tops 3-0 Best Bet Saturday
5-3 And Up 85 Units In College Football Last Saturday
Sunday's NFL Betting Menu
100-Unit NFL Blowout Game Of The Week
This Team Grades Out As 27-28-Point Winner
Red-Hot Chairman's Club 7-2-1 In NFL This Seasons...Wins Again Sunday
Every Play 25 Units...6 Underdogs Have Won Straight Up
7-2-1 Chairman's Record This Season
10/2...25 Units...Falcons (+2.5) 48, Panthers 33 (Won)
9/29...25 Units...Bengals (-7) 22, Dolphins 7 (Won)
9/26...25 Units...Falcons (+3) 45, Saints 32 (Won)
9/25...25 Units...Lions (+7) 27, Pacers 34 (Push)
9/19...25 Units...Bears (-3) 14, Eagles 29 (Lost)
9/18...25 Units...Falcons (+4.5) 35, Raiders 28 (Won)
9/15...25 Units...Jets (+1.5) 37, Bills 31 (Won)
9/12...25 Units...Rans (-2.5) 0, 49ers 28 (Lost)
9/11...25 Units...Buccaneers (+2.5) 31, Falcons 24 (Won)
9/10...25 Units...Broncos (+3) 21, Panthers 20 (Won)
Bengals At Cowboys Highlights Knockout 3-0 Best Bets Club Play
15-Unit Winner...Winning 10-Unit Play...Winning 10-Unit Total
Best Bets Club Last Week
15 Units...Chiefs (+3) 14, Steelers 43 (Lost)
10 Units...Bills (+3.5) 16, Patriots 0 (Won)
10 Units...Cowboys (-1) 24, 49ers 17 (Won)
All The Above Games Are Available On The Internet or toll free at 1-800-755-2255. ALL MAJOR CREDIT CARDS AND PAY PAL ACCEPTED
With Jets, Just Call It What It Is
The New York Jets are off to an an unexpectedly bad start and the reason is there for all to see. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick held out for a $12-million contract for this season and is lucky it is down on paper. Last year, he looked as if he had finally arrived, when he led the Jets to a 10-6 season but this time around his performance is downright scary. After four games, Fitzpatrick, a 10-year veteran from Harvard, has the lowest passing efficiency rating of all quarterbacks at 57.6
In his last two games - losses to Kansas City, 24-3, and to Seattle, 27-17 - he has nine interceptions in (6 against KC) and seems absolutely lost reading defenses. Coach Todd Bowles says he still has confidence in Fitzpatrick and he will continue to be the starter as Geno Smith waits in the wings. The current Jet starter has played for six different teams in his 10 years in he NFL and they all gave up on him.
What's Wrong With Winston And Mariota?
The 1-2 picks in last year's NFL draft - quarterbacks Jameis Winston (Florida State) and Marcus Mariota (Oregon) - lived up to expectations as rookies but seemingly have regressed this season. Both are on my bettors RED ALERT and at this point I simply play on the cautiously, if at all.
Tampa Bay is off to a 1-3 start this season with Winston under center and regardless of what coach Dirk Koetter says in defending him, he is regressing. In the Buccaneers first four games he has thrown 8 touchdown passes matched against 8 interceptions. He has the second worst passing efficiency rating in the NFL at 72.9, leading only the Jets Fitzpatrick at 57.6.
Despite the fact Mariota is getting outstanding protection (he has been sacked just 7 times in four games) he appears absolutely lost. The Titans have also gone 1-3 in their first four games and Mariota has the fourth worst passing efficiency rating (73.9) in those games. He has five interceptions and three lost fumbles for the season, seems to have lost his ability to run and remains confused and indecisive. RED ALERT - yes.
The Colts Have One Big Problem - An Offensive Line That Can't Block
The once highly-regarded Indianapolis Colts head into Sunday's home game against the Chicago Bears 1-3 for the season and are in the process of getting quarterback Andrew Luck killed because of an offensive line that is so bad it is questionable any of the players could start anywhere else. The offensive line has been discussed for the past two months with the front office taking the position it's just fine and the coaching staff saying it is not even close to that. In a 30-27 loss to Jacksonville in London last week, Luck was sacked six times and was seldom given the few seconds it takes to spot open receivers. RED ALERT - Yes.
Key Player NFL Injury Report For This Week
Carolina Panthers - QB Cam Newton (concussion) questionable For Tampa Bay Monday. If he cannot go, 12-year veteran Derek Anderson, a solid backup, will go
Chicago Bears - QB Jay Cutler (thumb) is down-graded to doubtful Sunday for Indianapolis. Starting in his place, as he did in last week's 17-14 home win over Detroit, will be seven-year veteran Brian Hoyer who against the Lions completed 28-of-36 passes for 302 yards and two touchdowns, and no interceptions.
Denver Broncos - Quarterback Trevor Siemian (shoulder) has been upgraded and will be the starter against Atlanta.
Detroit Lions - Wide-receiver Marvin Jones Jr. (foot) is probable for Philadelphia Sunday.
New England Patriots - Quarterback Tom Brady has served his four-game suspension and will start against Philadelphia.. Running back LeGarrette Blount (hip) has been upgraded to probable for the Browns.
New York Jets - Running back Matt Forte (leg) has been upgraded to start against Pittsburgh.
NFL BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY
Philadelphia Eagles (3-0) -3 by 9-10 over DETROIT LIONS (1-3) - Nobody knows how good the Eagles are but everybody knows the Detroit Lions are again borderline terrible. The Eagles come into this game off a bye week and have a defense (giving up 9.0 points and 274.3 yards per game) and if past performances mean anything should run off a hide from the Lions. By the way, how does Detroit coach Jim Caldwell keep his job?
Chicago Bears (1-3) +5 over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (1-3) - As long as the Colts put on the field an offensive line that may be the worst in the entire NFL they are not going to beat many teams. Chicago does not bring a lot to the table but they are coached to the nines and will come to play. This is another spot where the 'dog could win straight up.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (3-1) -2 by 7 over Buffalo Bills (2-2) - The Rams have won their past three games - over Seattle, Tampa Bay and Arizona - straight up as underdogs and seem to have 90% of the edges it takes to get the money, and I believe they will do just that. For certain L.A. will come to play
College Football Betting And The Coaching Factor
Being a consistent winner in college football is basic - accumulate the best players year-after-year and you will win. Nothing complicated about that but bettors are not concerned with teams that win - just teams that cover the number. That is why sharp bettors will focus on a Georgia State (7-34 the past 4½ seasons under head coach Trent Miles) and not on high-profile Notre Dame which under present coach Brian Kelly who has gone 57-26 since taking over in 2010.
While Georgia State has a miserable 7-34 won-lost record under Miles the Panthers stand an impressive 22-13-1 against the spread (ATS) in those games. This means while winning just 16% of its games, the team has covered 67% of the time. As for Notre Dame the Irish have under Kelly have won 71% of their games straight up but have covered in just 49% of them.
These are just two of many examples of how coaches fare against the number. It is obvious a complete lack of respect for Georgia State, a team that started its football program just seven years ago and did not play a Division I schedule until 2013 currently a money tree. This is one of many college teams that get little attention from bookmakers, a situation that often offers an opportunity to win a bet. As for Notre Dame bookmakers dare not make a bad line on one of the most popular of betting teams or risk getting buried by legions who bet blindly on them.
One can run up and down the list of 128 board teams and find more Georgia States and Notre Dames. After recruiting the players, the rest is up to the coach, and we have listed here teams and their coaches who fare well against the number, regardless of their talent The biggest revelation in all this research contained some surprises including the fact two high-profile teams, Alabama and Clemson, win and cover. Digest that.
|Central Michigan||John Bonamego||10-8||11-6-0|
|Georgia State||Trent Miles||7-34||22-13-1|
|Kansas State||Bill Snyder||194-103||155-104-2|
|Oklahoma State||Mike Gundy||97-49||75-58-4|
|Western Michigan||P. J. Fleck||22-21||25-15-0|
Warriors 5-7 Favorites To Win Another NBA Championship
For The Dreamers Among Us - Get 1000-1 On Nets
Regular Season Begins In 3 Weeks
The National Basketball Association (NBA) begins is regular season in three weeks, on Tuesday, October 25, and it is no surprise the power-packed and better-than ever Golden State Warriors are the solid odds-on 5-7 favorites to win another title. The Cleveland Cavaliers, who beat Golden State 4-3 in last year's seven-game championship round, are the second futures betting choice at 5-2.
Prices are all over the board in futures wagering being conducted at the Westgate Super Book in Las Vegas. The Los Angeles Lakers and Phoenix Suns are both listed at 500-1 but the real longshot are the Brooklyn Nets at 1000-1.
The NBA exhibition season is going full-blast, giving bettors an opportunity to get at least a little insight into the potential of each team. Obviously, it is time to start studying right now and be ready when the first three games tip on October 25.
NBA Opening Night Schedule
(Last Season's Regular-Season record In Parenthesis)
New York Knicks (36-50) at Cleveland Cavaliers (57-25) On TNT)
Utah Jazz (40-42) at Portland Trail Blazers (44-38)
San Antonio Spurs (67-15) at Golden State Warriors (67-15) (On TNT)
I had an excellent NBA season in 2015-16 have studied long and hard for the encore this time around. Games will be available by the day, or with a money-saving season's membership. Call 1-800-755-2255 for an early-bird price. No, I do not handicap the pre-season.
|Golden State Warriors||5-7|
|Los Angeles Clippers||20-1|
|Los Angeles Lakers||500-1|
|New Orleans Pelicans||100-1|
|New York Knicks||60-1|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||30-1|
|Portland Trail Blazers||80-1|
|San Antonio Spurs||6-1|