Football Forecast Vol. 8 Midweek Edition
Volume 18, Edition 7… For Period Of October 12-17, 2016
Copyright Property of Kelso Sturgeon and May Not Be Reproduced In Any Form Without Written Permission
OCTOBEFEST ROLLS ON THIS WEEKEND!
Plus 85 units Through Two Weeks
- Thu Oct 13: 25 units Trick or Treat Thursday - Broncos @ Chargers - The Bronco D has become THE defense. But the hard luck Chargers are overdue to get lucky. What's gonna be? I've got your answer!
- Sat Oct 15: 50-unit 2-Team Showdown Parlay - Alabama @ Tennessee & Ohio State @ Wisconsin - Two of biggest conference games of the year
- Sun Oct 16: 100-unit NFL Game Of Week - Another Shocking NFL Winner like 2 weeks ago with Rams (+8½) over Cardinals 17-13
Click here to join my annual Win Riot of Special Situation games. Runs through Monday, Oct 31 - Just $100
Cowboys Bryant Returns And Kaepernick Starts For 49ers
Jones Says Romo Set To Return In Week #8 And Will Start
Alabama, Washington, Clemson, Ohio State Ranked 1-2-3-4
College Football Returns Tonight With 15 Unit Sunbelt Play...Siemian Set To Return Thursday Night As Broncos Take On Chargers
Pats Score 33-13 Win In 100-Unit NFL Blowout Game Of Month
I'm Set To Win 100-Unit Plays In Colleges And NFL This Weekend
By Kelso Sturgeon
Getting ready to have a winning weekend in football requires days of preparation. One does not awaken on Saturday or Sunday morning and jump cold turkey into analyzing the card. For instance, I begin preparing for next week's games Saturday night in the colleges and Sunday night in the National Football League.
Picking winners is not an easy task-something we are reminded off each day as the results roll in. There is only one question: Did we cover?
I am bringing this up because I have decided it would be to everyone's benefit in this midweek newsletter to offer background information that might impact which teams will win or cover. In this issue we address the quarterback situation for several NFL teams, the homecoming issue in college football and a list of five teams that are in major bounce-back form.
Handicapping is a complex exercise that goes far beyond the statistical data and won-lost records of each team. The value of the subjective background in many cases will determine winners as they create situations that soften betting lines.
The weekend newsletter, which covers every issue in its current status, and offers at least five college football winners and three more in the NFL will be available the first thing Friday morning.
First, a reminder the Navy at East Carolina game that was to be played Thursday night has been postponed and will be played at ECU on November. The cancellation was a direct result of the impact Hurricane Matthew had on the Atlantic Coast last week. ECU asked for the postponement because weather conditions and the chaos following the form would not permit the Pirates to practice.
Now, on to the NFL.
Nationally Televised College Money Maker Wins Tonight
Hard-Luck UL-Lafayette Hosts Appalachian State On ESPN2 Tonight In 15-Unit Sun Belt Showdown
Click here to win tonight and start another winning football weekend
Snake-Bitten Chargers Try To Right Ship Thursday Night As They Take On Denver Team Going For Its 10th Straight Win Over Them
No NFL team can approach the uncanny ability of the San Diego Chargers to blow games. The come into tonight's nationally-televised (CBS, NFL Network) with a 1-4 record (3-2 ATS) and have lost three of those games as they blew leads in the last two minutes. If there was an unbelievable way to lose, San Diego has found it this season. Denver gets starting quarterback Trevor Siemian (missed last game with shoulder injury) for this one and is a solid 3-point road favorite, with the game having a total of 48 or 48.5, depending on where one bets.
I am confident I have the winner of this one and will be releasing it as a 25-unit Chairman's Club play. Click here to sign up.
Of note is the fact the Broncos will be without head coach Gary Kubiak who is being treated for a complex migraine headache condition. Special teams coordinator Joe DeCamillis will be in charge.
In other NFL News...
- Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is practicing but remains in the concussion protocol and I still iffy for Sunday's games against the Saints.
- Arizona Cardinals quarterback Carson Palmer has cleared concussion protocol and will start Monday against the Jets.
- San Francisco 49ers have all but given up on quarterback Blaine Gabbert and will start Colin Kaepernick in that spot at Buffalo Sunday.
- Cleveland Browns cut last week's starting fill-in quarterback Charlie Whitehurst and will start rookie Cody Kessler (Southern California) in his place at Tennessee Sunday. Kessler's backup will be rookie Kevin Hogan (Stanford). Whitehurst was injured in last week's loss to New England and was released after negotiating an injury contract.
- Dallas Cowboys wide-receiver is expected to return from the injury list Sunday at Green Bay.
- Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones says long-time starting quarterback Tony Romo will return from injury in game #8 and will start in place of sensational rookie, Dak Prescott.
Two 100-Unit Plays Set To Win Big Saturday And Sunday
I am still working on this week's betting menu but have confirmed these plays:
- Friday Night-There are four college games, all on national TV, and I will be releasing one of them as a 50-unit highroller play and a second game at 15 units for Best Bets Club members.
- Saturday-The schedule is outstanding and I know have decided on two bets thus far-my 100-unit college Blowout Game of the Month for my highrollers club and a very attractive 50-unit two-team parlay for OctoberFest clients-Alabama at Tennessee and Ohio State at Wisconsin.
- Sunday-This past Sunday I won my 100-unit NFL Blowout Game of the Month as New England (-10) crushed the Cleveland Browns, 33-13, and am coming right with my 100-unit NFL Must Win Play. All this information will be included in the weekend newsletter.
Questions/Answers About College Homecoming Factor In The Betting Process
There is a long-held belief among bettors traditional homecoming games are contests in which home teams-anxious to perform well before the alumni who have returned for this annual event-are always "up" for this game and on many occasions will out-perform expectations and win. Is it fact or fiction?
I do not have all the answers but will share with you what has gone on this season. There have been 22 homecoming games played and in those contests the home team won outright by a 15-7 (68%) margin and went 14-8 (64%) against the number in those games. One season of data is not enough to draw any scientific conclusions but it is obvious, thus far, that homecoming hosts are winning and covering.
There are 18 more homecoming games this season and one might want to give a little extra attention to all of the. Here they are with their current records and betting lines. They are listed alphabetically with the host team first.
ARKANSAS STATE (1-4) is -4.5 over South Alabama (3-2)
BAYLOR (5-0) is –34 over Kansas (1-4)
BYU (3-3) is -7 over Mississippi State (2-3) (Friday Night)
CENTRAL FLORIDA (3-2) is -3 over Temple (3-3)
COLORADO (4-2) is -13 over Arizona State (5-1)
FLORIDA STATE (4-2) is -21 over Wake Forest (4-2)
GEORGIA (4-2) is -14 over Vanderbilt (2-4)
INDIANA (3-2) is +3.5 vs. Nebraska (5-0)
MARSHALL (1-4) is is -13 over Florida Atlantic (1-5)
MICHIGAN STATE (2-3) is -4.5 over Northwestern (2-3)
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (4-1) is -2 over Western Kentucky (3-3)
PURDUE (3-2) is +13 vs. Iowa (4-2)
RUTGERS (2-4) Off vs. Illinois (1-4)
TOLEDO (4-1) is -31 over Bowling Green (1-5)
TROY (4-1) is -17 over Georgia State (1-4)
UL-Monroe (1-4) is -7 over Texas State (2-3)
VIRGINIA (2-3) is +3 vs. Pittsburgh (4-2)
WASHINGTON STATE (3-2) is -4.5 over UCLA (3-3)
All of this is just food for thought as you handicap.
Five Very Strong Bounce-Back Plays For Saturday
The five teams listed in CAPS below deserve consideration as strong bounce-back plays for Saturday
Air Force meets New Mexico on a neutral field in the Cotton Bowl and comes into this game off a 35-26 loss at Wyoming.
California hosts Oregon and comes into this PAC-12 game off a a stunning 47-44 loss as a 13-point favorite last week at Oregon State.
Houston hosts Tulsa and comes into this game off one of the biggest upsets of the season, losing at Navy 46-40 as a 16-point favorite.
Maryland hosts Minnesota after suffering its first loss of the season last week at Penn State, 38-14.
Southern Miss is at LSU and comes into this game off an embarrassing 55-32 loss against a terrible Texas State team. The Golden Eagles were a 17-point choice in that one.
KELSO'S COLLEGE TOP 20
- Alabama (6-0)-The real deal...At Tennessee (5-1)
- Washington (6-0)...Blowout wins over Stanford and Oregon says it all...Off
- Clemson (6-0)...Great offense, better defense...Hosts N.C. State (4-1)
- Ohio State (5-0)...Played weak schedule, gets acid test this week...At Wisconsin (4-1)
- Texas A&M (6-0)...Has beaten UCLA, Auburn, Arkansas, Tennessee...Off
- Wisconsin...(4-1)...Only loss at Michigan 14-7...Hosts Ohio State (5-0).
- Tennessee (5-1)...Only loss in 2 OTs to Texas A&M...Hosts Alabama (6-0)
- Louisville (4-1)...Only loss by 6 at Clemson...Hosts Duke (3-3) Friday
- Michigan (6-0)...Keeps right on rolling...Hosts Illinois (1-4) at homecoming.
- Mississippi (3-2)...Losses to Alabama, Florida State by total of 6 points...At Arkansas (4-2)
- Houston (5-1) ...Upset by Navy last week but still 18-2 last 20 games...Hosts Tulsa (4-1)
- Florida State (4-2)...Better than its record...Hosts Wake Forest (5-1) at homecoming.
- Virginia Tech (4-1)...Sleeper to win ACC, only loss to Tennessee...At Syracuse (2-4)
- Nebraska (5-0)...Doing everything right...At Indiana (3-2)
- Boise State (5-0)...Has returned to top form...Hosts Colorado State (3-3)
- Miami (4-1)...Lost tough one to FSU...Hosts North Carolina (4-2)
- Florida (4-1)...Better than advertised...Hosts Missouri (2-3) at homecoming.
- Utah (5-1)...Has beaten BYU, USC, Arizona and may be better than this...At Oregon State (2-3)
- Baylor (5-0)...Bears have not missed a beat with new coach...Host Kansas (1-4) at homecoming.
- Auburn (4-2)...Getting Better with every game...Off