Football Forecast Weekend of Oct 14-17, 2016
Volume 18, Edition 8… For Period Of October 14-17, 2016
Copyright Property of Kelso Sturgeon and May Not Be Reproduced In Any Form Without Written Permission
OCTOBEFEST ROLLS ON THIS WEEKEND!
Plus 110 units Through Two Weeks After Chargers Win Thursday Night
- Sat Oct 15: 50-unit 2-Team Showdown Parlay - Alabama @ Tennessee & Ohio State @ Wisconsin - Two of biggest conference games of the year
- Sun Oct 16: 100-unit NFL Game Of Week - Another Shocking NFL Winner like 2 weeks ago with Rams (+8½) over Cardinals 17-13
Click here to join my annual Win Riot of Special Situation games. Runs through Monday, Oct 31 - Just $100
100-Unit College Stunner Shocks Bookmakers Saturday
Right Back On Sunday With 2nd Straight 100-Unit NFL Winner With A Struggling Team That Must Win
Biggest Action Game In Colleges Is Utah-Oregon State And Line Move Comes For Real Reasons.
Cowboys (4-1) Get Acid Test Sunday At Packers (3-1) That Highlights 3-0 Best Bets Club Day
Cleveland Browns (0-5) Will Loss To Tennessee Titans But Can They Cover?...An NFL Roundup.
5 College 3 NFL Best Bets In This Issue Including 4 Underdogs
By Kelso Sturgeon
Many questions in college football and the National Football League heading into the weekend. How can Ohio State (5-0) be a 10-point favorite over Wisconsin (4-1), a team that fives up an average of 12.2 points per game? Is Alabama (6-0) really 13 points better than Tennessee (5-1), a team that suffered its first loss of the season last week in two overtimes, 45-38, at 6th-ranked Texas A&M and now returns to the hallowed grass of 102,455-seat Neyland Stadium in Knoxville.
Add to the drama this is one giant Southeastern Conference grudge match. Tennessee is the school that some years ago turned Alabama in for recruiting violations and long memories focus on that every time these teams play. The absolutely do not like one another and will use every trick in the bag to win.
In the NFL, where do the Dallas Cowboys (4-1 SU, 4-1-0 ATS) really fit in the race to the Super Bowl? We may get the answer Sunday when they take the field at Green Bay ((3-1 SU, 3-1-0 ATS) as 4.5-point underdogs. Will it really mean anything that the San Francisco 49ers (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS) have reinstated Colin Kaepernick as their starting quarterback? The 49ers are 8-point underdogs at Buffalo (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS).
Line moves in college continue in their roles as complete mysteries as bettors try to figure out if they are serious moves on a single team or a manipulation of numbers in order to hit a "middle". Let's address a few.
- The heavy action on the Utah at Oregon State game is real and comes for two basic reasons - primarily the weather. Utah (5-1 SU, 3-3-0 ATS) opened as a 12-point favorite over the Beavers (2-3, 3-2-0 ATS), with a total of 50.5. Those numbers are now the Utes -9, with a dramatically reduced total of 43.5. The weather forecast for Corvallis is responsible for the movement, since heavy rain and high winds, with gusts 40-60 miles per hour are forecast for game time. Now throw in the fact Utah is handicapped with its ground game because of the loss of several key running backs.
- The biggest line movement on the board has come on UNLV at Hawaii game. Hawaii opened as a 4.5-point favorite, went to -9 and is now the Rainbow Warriors -8.5. The move came from wiseguy moves in Las Vegas who believed the opening number was far afield for the matchup in Honolulu. UNLV (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) has struggled all season and Hawaii (3-3, SU 4-1-0) is fielding a dramatically-improved team.
- One game that has seen line movement that may signal a "middle" play - the Northwestern at Michigan State affair. That game opened with the Spartans favored by 4.5 and is now -6.5. There is a 4.1% chance it will fall on 5 and a 4.0% chance it will fall on 6.
- One game that has similar line movement but does not signal a "middle" play is North Carolina at Miami. This one opened with the Hurricanes a 7-point favored, moved out to -9 and is now back to -7. The latest study I have done on finishing margins says only 3.8% of the games fall on eight.
If you are unfamiliar with middle betting, it is quite lucrative when you win and and no disaster when one loses. It works like this:
Using the Northwestern-Michigan State game listed above if you bet $110 to win $100 on Michigan State -4.5 and then came back and took Northwestern (+6.5) with the same bet on the Wildcats, laying $110 to win $100 you have set yourself up to get 20-1 for your money since you cannot lose both bets. If you win both, you collect $200 and if you lose one you owe your bookmaker the vigorish, or just $10.
It also must be noted the sharps pay a lot of attention to college totals, where they manipulate numbers dramatically. For instance it is not unusual for them to take "over" 60, force the number up to 65 and then take "under that number. Most of the big totals moves come late but those paying close attention will still have 10-15 minutes to take advantage of them
College Betting Menu for Saturday
100-Unit College Blowout Game Of The Month
I opened the college season winning my 200-unit Blowout Game of the Year as Nebraska (-29) crushed Fresno State 43-10 and have won my last two 50-unit Games of the Week
Get the The Big Money For Just $50
50-Unit OctoberFest 2-Team Marquee TV Parlay
Alabama (6-0) At Tennessee (5-1)
Ohio State (5-0) at Wisconsin (4-1
Win This Parlay And Break The Bank For Just $25
All The Above Selections Are Available Online Or Toll Free At 1-800-755-2255. All Major Credit Cards And Pay Pal Accepted
COLLEGE BEST BETS FOR SATURDAY, OCT. 15
(Home Team In CAPS)
Kelso Reserves Right To Change Any Of These Selections Should A Late Change In Circumstances
PURDUE BOILERMAKERS (3-2) +11.5 over Iowa Hawkeye (4-2) - Iowa is one of the most under-performing teams in college football and line is simply too high against an improved Purdue team that is firing its best shot every out. Make it Iowa by 3.
West Virginia Mountaineers (4-0) -1 by 7 over TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (3-2) - To win Texas Tech, which does not recognize defense as part of the game, has to get into a shoot-out and hope to score enough points to win. That is not going to happen against a very good WVU team that plays everybody tough and has the ability to control the pace of the game.
Texas State Roadrunners (2-5) -3.5 by 9-10 over RICE OWLS (0-5) - The Roadrunners put it altogether last week when as a 17-point underdog buried a good Southern Miss team, 55-22, and there is no reason for them not to repeat today against a winless Rice team that 40.2 points and 568.4 yards each game.
New Mexico State Aggies (2-3) +5 by 7 over IDAHO VANDALS (3-3) - My figures suggest New Mexico State is a bit better than Idaho and has a solid chance to win this one straight up. Idaho's three wins have come against I-AA Montana State (2-4) and against UNLV (2-4) and UL-Monroe (1-4) while the Vandals have been blown out by Washington (59-14), Washington State (56-6) and Troy (34-13. This is not to suggest the Aggies are in the same league as the three aforementioned teams but they have enough talent to win this one.
Arizona State Sun Devils (5-1) +13.5 over COLORADO BUFFALOES (4-2) - Colorado has become a dangerous opponent for all comers and arrives at this game with a perfect 6-0 ATS record. That said, the Buffaloes in three of their last four games have played at Michigan, Oregon and last week at Southern California and simply have to be running a bit low on fuel after that grueling run. I do look for Colorado to win but the betting line is far too high for a PAC-12 showdown game with an ASU team that has lost only to USC and comes into this off a 23-20 upset win over UCLA.
NFL Betting Menu For Sunday
100-Unit NFL Must Win Game Of The Game Of The Week
This might be just the 6th week of the NFL season but several teams with high hopes find themselves behind the 8-ball and facing must win situations today.
I Won Last Week's 100-Unit NFL Blowout Game Of The Month With New England's 33-13 Win Over Cleveland, and Today's Team Will Win Just As Convincingly
Just $50, Charged To Your Major Credit Card
Cowboys At Packers Showdown Highlights 3-0 Sunday
The surprising Dallas Cowboys 4-1) face the acid test today at Green Bay (3-1) and I know I have the winner of this one. Plus two other knockout Best Bets Club plays
Just $15 For A Giant Winning Day
Chairman's Club Hot 8-3-1 With 25-Unit NFL Plays
The NFL has always been a tough nut to crack but my Chairman's Club That releases only 25-unit plays is having an excellent season in the pros and goes for another 25-unit underdog winner today
Cash Again Today For Just $25
Cleveland Browns Talentless And In Total Chaos, But Does That Mean This 0-5 Team Cannot Cover?
I have said it so many times it sounds like a broken record but I believe it - that the talentless Cleveland Browns will go 0-16 this season. The Browns head into Sunday's game at Tennessee standing 0-5 for the season and 1-4-0 against the spread (ATS) and are for the sixth time this season an underdog, this time by a touchdown against the Titans (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS). I am revisiting this issue because I want to remind bettors there is a great difference between winning and covering.
While the Browns, who have started five different quarterbacks this season, do not have the talent to win they certainly can cover the number. Just wanted to clarify that issue since some people do not understand win vs. cover.
In Miami things are quickly falling apart as the Dolphins (1-4) head for rock bottom. They have beaten only winless Cleveland, and barely, 30-24 as a 10-point favorite and the fans are crying for the heads of starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill and first-year coach Adam Gase. Just when you think the Dolphins can't get worse, they do, and it has created an unsettling situation of which bettors had better be aware. It's hard for a losing team and the chaos that comes from it to win. Miami is a 7.5-point home underdog this week to Pittsburgh (4-1).
Carolina coach Ron Rivera says the Panthers are 1-4 because the defense is playing with its head stuck where the sun does not shine. Adding to the misery is the terrible season quarterback Cam Newton is having, when he is health enough to play. Whatever happened to the team that went 15-1 in the regular season last year and made it to the Super Bowl before losing in the post-season.
You can take it to the bank the Chicago Bears have given up on long-time starting quarterback Jay Cutler and intend to move ahead with Brian Hoyer in charge. That will make Cutler a $16-million-a-year backup. Hoyer will be an improvement in that he rarely makes costly mistakes and he certainly has the respect of his teammates, something Cutler lost a long time ago.
You could say rookie defensive end is going to be an impact player for the San Diego Chargers. In his first action last week against the Raiders he was in for 27 plays and had two sacks, three QB hits and three more tackles
The consensus opinion among NFL insiders is that the Houston Texas made a big mistake in dolling out $70 million to "steal" back-up QB Brock Osweiler from the Denver Broncos. Osweiler has not shown any ability to keep a drive going and chokes when the heat is on. In other words, there is a reason the very hopeful Texans are 3-2 when the expected to be 4-1 five games in. They are 3-point favorites over an equally struggling Indianapolis Colts team Sunday.
The 2-3 Cincinnati Bengals are already behind the 8-ball because neither their offensive or defensive lines are performing as they did when went 12-5 last season. The Bengals truly need to get up to speed Sunday when the take the field in Foxborough as 9-point underdogs to the New England Patriots (4-1)
NFL BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY, OCT. 16
(Home Team In CAPS)
Kelso Reserves Right To Change Any Of These Selections Should A Late Change In Circumstances
Los Angeles Rams (3-2) +3 by 6 over DETROIT LIONS (2-3) - Rams are the better team in this matchup, with their three wins coming over Seattle, Tampa Bay and Arizona, and are primed to bounce-back coming off a 30-19 home loss to the Buffalo Bills. In fact, this is a double-bounce game since Detroit is coming off a 24-23 upset win over the Philadelphia Eagles and are a candidate to bounce downward. I do believe the double bounce factor wins tis one.
HOUSTON TEXANS (3-2) -3 by 9-10 over Indianapolis Colts (2-3) - The Indianapolis Colts have won of the worst offensive lines in the NFL and it now faces one of the best defenses in the pros. I look for the Texans to run all over the Colts, keeping quarterback Andrew Luck running for his life, and score a decisive victory over a Colts team that is but a shell of what it used to be.
TENNESSEE TITANS (2-3)-Cleveland Browns (0-5) under 43.5 points - If every a game was made for an "under" play it is this one. Neither team can seem to get out of its way on offense and Cleveland is once again handicapped at quarterback, being forced again to start rookie Cody Kessler who will be backed up by another rookie. My assessment says points will be hard to come by in this one and I am predicting 35 or less points will be scored.