Kelso Football Forecast Vol. 9 Midweek Edition
Volume 18, Edition 9… For Period Of October 19-24, 2016
Copyright Property of Kelso Sturgeon and May Not Be Reproduced In Any Form Without Written Permission
Packers QB Rodgers Under Microscope Against Bears Thursday Night
Jets Give Up On Fitzpatrick And Will Go With Geno Smith
Steelers Would Be Toast With Landry Jones At Quarterback
It's All In The Numbers - 49ers Worst Team In NFL
NBA Begins In 5 Days With Cavs-Warriors Favored To Be Last Teams Standing
Bookmakers Dance With Public And Put Up Some Ridiculous Betting Lines
By Kelso Sturgeon
Oh, those bookmakers - always teasing us with betting lines that border on the "ridiculous". They have done just that with a handful of games but none of them as far afield as the number on #6 Texas A&M (6-0) at #1 Alabama (7-0). How in heaven's name can the Crimson Tide be an 18.5-point favorite for its Saturday night showdown against the Aggies? Ridiculous!
But wait a minute. We thought the same when Alabama played at Tennessee as a a 13.5-point choice and won by 39 points, 49-10, and the week before that when the 'Bama was a 14.5-point favorite over Arkansas and won by 19 points, 49-30. And, yes, let us not forget the season opener in which the Crimson Tide (-13.5) crushed Southern California by 46 points, 52-6.
The number on Alabama-Texas A&M opened at -16.5 and was then bet out to its current -18.5. A team's past performance in these situations is a significant factor in handicapping and one must respect that while feeling the number is too high when one takes in the credentials of the Aggies who have beaten UCLA and Tennessee at home while winning three straight road games at Auburn, Arkansas and South Carolina. It must be noted Texas A&M comes into this battle off a bye week.
I certainly will be releasing this nationally-televised (CBS...Time change to 3:30 Eastern) game but it is a bit early in the week to decide how strong a play it will be. My respect for both teams requires a little more digging.
Suspect Packers (3-2) Host Bears (1-5) Thursday Night In 25-Unit Play...10-3-1 In These Games This Season
Bettors will certainly be paying attention to Thursday's National Football League game that finds the struggling Chicago Bears (1-5 straight up, 1-5 against the spread) at the very suspect Green Bay Packers (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) and all eyes will be on the latter's quarterback Aaron Rodgers who thus far this season has not performed at the same level that made him a game-breaking superstar in his first 10 seasons. The drop off has been dramatic and has been so obvious to NFL insiders they don't know what to think. The bottom line: If the Packers cannot run off and hide from the hapless Bears it is going to be a long season in Green Bay. I have strong feelings about this game and will be releasing it as a 25-unit play. Click here to win this one for $25
Thursday Night's College Schedule
Miami Hurricanes (4-2) at Virginia Tech Hokies (4-2)
Tech is -6...Kickoff at 7:00 Eastern...On ESPN
Tech is 6-15 ATS in last 21 games as favorite
Hurricanes are 4-1 in their last 5 games off a SP loss
Troy Trojans (5-1) at South Alabama Jaguars (3-3)
South Alabama is -9.5...Kickoff at 7:30 Eastern...On ESPNU
The Jaguars are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 conference games
The Trojans are 18-7-1 in their last 26 games off ATS loss
BYU Cougars (4-3) at Boise State Broncos
Boise State is 7-point favorite...Kickoff at 10:15 Eastern...On ESPN
The Broncos are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games as favorite of from 3.5-to-10 points
The Cougars are 21-7 ATs in their last 28 games as an underdog
There are three college games Friday night - South Florida 6-1 at Temple (4-3), Oregon (2-4 at California (3-3) and San Jose State (2-5) at San Diego State - but I am undecided at this time which contests (all on national TV) I will be using, or the unit-ratings of them.
Handicapping The Colleges: Here are some background thoughts and handicapping hints when looking at this week's college schedule.
- Georgia (3-3) lost at home to Vanderbilt(3-4) last week as a two-touchdown favorite because its offense is more predictable than the sunrise and is conducted with the imagination of a rock. The Bulldogs are off this week before heading off to Jacksonville to meet nationally-ranked Florida.
- Louisville (5-1) comes off a bye week and is a 20-point favorite over N.C. State (4-2) that lost a tough one at Clemson, 24-17, in overtime. The Wolfpack was a 19.5-point underdog in that one. Of note Louisville suffered its only loss of the season at Clemson, 42-36. 30 points, really?
- Nebraska (6-0) is a 24-point home favorite over Purdue (3-3) but then gets the acid test in back-to-back road games at Wisconsin and Ohio State. The truth will soon be told.
- Michigan State (2-4) has suffered four consecutive straight up losses as a favorite over Wisconsin, Indiana, BYU and Northwestern and how finds itself a 2.5-point favorite at Maryland Saturday. Hello, suckers.
- Pittsburgh has seen all six of its games this season go over the number.
- Indiana has seen all six of its games this season go under the number.
- Rice (0-6) gets off the snide this week when it hosts Prairie View A&M.
- Rutgers (2-5) has scored just 14 points in its last four games and has in those games been outscored 43.5-3.5 in those contests. The Scarlet Knights visiting under-rated Minnesota (4-2) this week and are 21-point underdogs.
- Stanford (5-2) won in an upset at Notre Dame, 17-10, last week and did it without superstar running back Christian McCafferey who missed the game with an injury. He will play Saturday at homecoming against a very dangerous Colorado (5-2) team. The Cardinal is a 1.5-point favorite, bet down from -2.5,
No Surprise Here - 49ers Worst Team In NFL
For reasons thus far unexplained the media continues to prop up San Francisco 49ers first-year coach Chip Kelly who has just seen his team (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS) replace the winless Cleveland Browns (0-6 SU, 2-4 ATS) as the worst team in the National Football League. Kelly is praised each week for his "innovative offense" which is ranked last in the league, averaging a mere 292.8 yards per game. His defense is little better, ranked 25th of 32, giving up 398.8 yards per outing. Am I missing something the pundits and self-proclaimed experts see that I don't? The 49ers are 2-point home underdogs to Tampa Bay (2-3) Sunday
New York Jets will replace their $12 million man - quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick - with former starter and first-round draft pick Geno Smith. I guess those 11 interceptions finally got to the Jets coaching staff.
Pittsburgh Steelers had better hope starting quarterback Ben Roethlisberger recovers quickly from this week's knee surgery or they are doomed. His replacement, Landry Jones, the pride of Artesia, NM and a former signal-caller for the Oklahoma Sooners, may be the worst back-up quarterback in the NFL. He has no on-the-field presence, can't make the quick decisions required to win and in my opinion is simply out of his league.
The Saturday Betting Schedule
100-Unit College Football Game Of The Month
Another Giant 25-Unit Underdog Winner
Texas A&M At Alabama Tops Best Bets Club Day
The Sunday Betting Schedule
100-Unit NFL Knockout Blowout Game Of The Month
50-Unit NFL Underdog Game Of The Week
25-Unit 2-Team NFL Parlay
(All The Details Will Be In Friday's Weekend Newsletter) All games are available here online and toll free at 1-800-755-2255. All major credit cards and Pay Pal accepted.
NBA Begins Its Long Season Tuesday With 3 Games
I have been working overtime to get ready for the 2016-17 NBA season and assure you I intend to launch it in winning fashion Tuesday night when the first three games ae played. You can purchase the entire NBA and college basketball seasons for a bargain price, or play by the day from fees ranging from $15 to $50.
For the record, general managers of the 30 teams met this past week and to no one's surprise voted that the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers will meet for the third straight year in the championship round six months down the road.
It is also of interest they also predicted the Minnesota Timberwolves will be the most improved team in the league. It was also interesting they voted that 7-0 center/forward Karl-Anthony Towns(18.3 points, 10.5 rebounds per game as a rookie last season) would be the one player they would select to start a new franchise. He received 47% of the votes, followed by Kevin Durant of the Golden State Warriors at 21% and LeBron James of the Cavaliers at 17%.
To me these are two signals to bettors to pay attention to this recently down-trodden team.
Tuesday Night Schedule
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls (TNT)
San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors (TNT)