Football Forecast Newsletter - Volume 18 Issue 9
Back-To-Back 100-Unit College, NFL Winners This Weekend
50-Unit Virginia Tech Win Over Miami 37-16 Launches Week 9-1 With 25-Unit College ‘Dogs And Another Wins Saturday
Washington Huskies Getting Ready To Take Over College Football
Warriors, Cavaliers Favored As NBA Season Begins Tuesday
Absolutely Burying Bookmakers In Baseball Playoffs
By Kelso Sturgeon
There are few things more satisfying than being right when the rest of the betting world says you are wrong—and I experienced that feeling last night with a winning 50-unit move on Virginia Tech (-4½) and its 37-16 blowout of the Miami Hurricanes. The sharps, the wiseguys and the betting syndicates obviously had a better opinion and poured it in on Miami and drove the number down from -6 to -4½. I won, they lost and hopefully that sets the trend for this weekend.
There are several things on my mind as I head into my Saturday and Sunday releases.
- First of all I will be releasing 100-unit plays in the colleges on Saturday and in the NFL Sunday and am confident I will win both of them.
- One must keep in mind we are into conference play in the colleges and these games tend to be closer than the non-conference games played earlier. Just pay attention and be careful about laying the big wood.
- In the NFL what you see is what you get. Accept that and you will improve your chances of winning by double-digit percentages. That is why I went 5-1 in the NFL last Sunday.
- Then I must remind you the NBA season begins Tuesday with three games—two of them on national television—and I am 100% prepared to get off to my traditional hot start.
- Last but not least, I have been ripping bookmakers a new one in the baseball playoffs and will continue to win because my game to game analysis is better than theirs.
N.C. State Wolfpack (4-2 SU, 5-1-0 ATS) at Louisville Cardinals (5-1 SU, 3-2-1 ATS)
Louisville has rushed for at least 250 yards in a school record eight consecutive games and have the country’s third best rushing offense, averaging 305.6 yards per game. N.C. State has the best run defense in the ACC, giving up just 95.3 yards per game. Louisville also has the nation’s top-ranked scoring offense at 58 points per game.
Texas A&M Aggies (6-0 SU, 4-2-0 ATS) at Alabama Crimson Tide (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS)
Alabama will be going for its 20th consecutive win in this one and are facing an Aggie team that leads the SEC in total offense, averaging 532.8 yards (274.3 on the ground). Of note is the fact the Crimson Tide defense gives up just 274.7 yards (64½ yards on ground and an average of just 15 points per game.
Oregon State Beavers (2-4 SU, 4-2-0 ATS) at Washington Huskies (6-0 SU, 4-2-0 ATS)
The Washington Huskies, thought to be a team of the future, have become one in the present despite the fact it has a squad made up of 52 true and redshirt freshmen, 24 sophomores and just 13 seniors. Washington goes for its 19th straight win.
Saturday against an Oregon State team much better than its record. Washington is very good right now and has positioned itself to emerge next year as the best team in college football
Ohio State Buckeyes (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS) at Penn State Nittany Lions (4-2 SU, 1-4-1 ATS)
Ohio State, which averages 516½ yards and 49.3 points per game while giving up just 280½ yards and 12.8 points per outing, goes for its 20th consecutive road win in this one. Penn State comes into this off a bye and has won 10 of its last 11 home games.
COLLEGE BETTING MENU FOR SATURDAY
100-Unit College Football Game Of Month Crushes Number
Bookmakers Remain Sound Asleep On The Improvement Of Several College Teams And Because Of It Present An Opportunity To Break The Bank Today With One Of Them
There are at least a dozen college football teams that take the field each week with a betting line that does not reflect their ability. In other words, we catch soft numbers on these teams most of the time and when all the other elements of handicapping are in place these teams can be standout plays for bettors. Today we have just such a team in action and I will be releasing it as my 100-unit College Football Game of the Month.
The team I am releasing has everything going for it today and my figures give it a 99.9% chance to win and a 90% chance to cover the number. It does not get any better than this for bettors and you can win this game with me for just $50, charged to your major credit card or to you Pay Pal account.
For the record I won my 100-unit NFL Must Win Game of the Week this past Sunday as the Kansas City Chiefs (-1½) rolled into Oakland and knocked off the Raiders, 26-10. Now its time for college football to move front and center with a 100-unit winner.
Forgive Me If I Proclaim Myself King Of College Underdogs—A Title I Have Earned Going 9-1 With 25-Unit PlaysThis Season And Eight Of Those Were Won Outright By ‘Dogs
I said in my midweek newsletter bookmakers are offering some of the most ridiculous betting lines of the entire college season today and I meant just that. Some of these lines are off by more than a touchdown and they give us the opportunity to Win With a Giant Underdog.
A deep look into all the games where the number was far from reality revealed absolutely nothing hidden from public view that would justify it. It is full speed ahead today with a 25-Unit Play on One of the Biggest College Upsets of the Season.
Since day one of this season, I have ruled the world with my 25-unit plays (see my record below) and am confident I will again get the money today. You can win this giant upset game for just $25, charged to your major credit card, or to your Pay Pal account.
Chairman’s Club 9-1 In College Games
10/15… 25 Units… Northwestern (+6) 54, Michigan State 40 (Won)
10/8… 25 Units… BYU (+4½) 31, Michigan State 14 (Won)
10/6… 25 Units… Louisiana Tech (+3) 55, Western Kentucky 52 (Won)
10/1… 25 Units… Minnesota (+3.4) 26, Penn State 29 (Won)
9/25… 25 Units… Pittsburgh (+7½) 36, North Carolina 37 (Won)
9/22… 25 Units… Clemson (-10½) 26, Georgia 7 (Won)
9/17… 25 Units… Colorado (+18) 28, Michigan 45 (Won)
9/10… 25 Units… Middle Tennessee (+3½) 24, Vanderbilt 47 (Lost)
9/3… 25 Units… Western Michigan (+3) 22, Northwestern 21 (Won)
9/2… 25 Units… Kansas State (+13½) 13, Stanford 26 (Won)
#6 Texas A&M (6-0) At #1 Alabama (7-0) Tops 3-0 Saturday
Texas A&M Is Getting No Respect Today Against Alabama As An 18-Point Underdog But Why Should It Against A Crimson Tide Team That Is Blowing Away Everything In Its Path?
The betting line is designed to make every game on the football schedule a dead-even affair and history says it usually does just that. Nobody ever got rich laughing at bookmakers and that brings us to today’s Southeastern Conference showdown that finds Texas A&M at Alabama, a contest in which the Crimson Tide opened -16 and Is now -18. The credentials of both these undefeated and talented teams are impressive and on paper the number appears justified. In one comparison, it is noted the Aggies defeated Tennessee in College Station, 45-38, in two overtimes as a 7½-point favorite. Alabama beat this same team last Saturday in Knoxville, 49-10, as a 13½-point favorite.
That said, the winner can be found by reading between the lines and peeking behind the curtain, and I am confidently releasing that team as my top play of the day at 15 units. You can win this nationally-televised affair (CBS… Kickoff 3:30 Eastern) and two additional 10-unit plays for just $15, charged to your major credit card.
Wisconsin Badgers (4-2 SU, 5-1-0 ATS) -4 by 9-10 over IOWA HAWKEYES—Wisconsin is the best 4-2 team in the country and has a defense that should absolutely shutdown Iowa’s offense. It is of note Wisconsin’s two losses have come at the hands of 2nd-ranked Ohio State 30-23 in overtime and at 4th-ranked Michigan, 14-7.
Central Michigan Chippewas (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) +10 over TOLEDO ROCKETS (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS)—This is a true showdown MAC game and I just have a gut feeling an under-rated Central Michigan team will take this one right to the money. While I am taking the ‘dog in this one I fully expect Toledo to win the game by 6-7.
SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (2-4 SU, 3-3-0 ATS)-Massachusetts Minutemen (1-6 SU, 3-4-0 ATS) UNDER 45½ points—If ever there was a game that had “under” written all over it it is this one. South Carolina has no offense (it averages 14.0 yards per game) but it does have a defense that can stop UMass in its tracks. I predict 35 points or less will be scored in this game.
Mississippi State (2-4 SU, 3-3-0 ATS) -3 by 7 over KENTUCKY WILDCATS (3-3 SU, 3-3-0 ATS)—The real Mississippi State showed up last week at BYU and while losing, 28-21, showed signs its rebuilding project is coming to a close and that it is going to be a much-improved team for the rest of the season. You may also call this a vote of “no confidence” in Kentucky which has become famous as a “wait-‘til-next-year team.
MARYLAND TERRAPINS (4-2 SU, 2-4-0 ATS) +3 by 7 over Michigan State Spartans (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS)—Michigan State keeps emerging as the favorite in its games and keeps right on losing them straight up—something that has happened in its last four outings. My figures say that trend will continue today against a Maryland team overdue for a win.
New York Giants (3-3 SU, 2-4-0 ATS) vs. Los Angeles Rams (3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS)—Game is being played in London with kickoff set for 9:30 a.m. Eastern. Rams games have gone under the total by a margin of 13-5 in their last 18 games. The Rams are also 5-2-0 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog. New York is 4-1-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 0.3-3.0 points.
Minnesota Vikings (5-0 SU, 5-0-0 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-2 SU, 3-2-0 ATS)—Eagles are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog. Vikings are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. The over has prevailed by a 14-3 margin in Philadelphia’s last 17 games as a home underdog.
New Orleans Saints (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS)—Saints are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as an underdog while Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games and is 0-5 ATS in their last five games in which they scored an ATS win.
Washington Redskins (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) at Detroit Lions (3-3 SU 2-3-1 ATS)—Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games and the “over” has come in by an 8-3 margin in their last 11 games following a straight-up win. Washington has seen the over come in 10-1 in its last 11 games and are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog.
Cleveland Browns (0-6 Sum 2-4 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS)—The under has prevailed by a 12-5 margin in the Bengals last 17 games and they have gone 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss of 14 or more points. The Browns are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games. Browns WR Terrelle Pryor has not been practicing as he continues to deal with a hamstring injury. Pryor is by far the Browns best offensive player.
Buffalo Bills (4-2 SU, 4-2-0 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (2-4 SU, 2-4-0 ATS)—The Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite and the over is 7-1 in their last eight games as a favorite .Miami is 3-11 ATs in its last 14 home games. RB LeSean McCoy sat out of practice for the Buffalo Bills Thursday and has been downgraded to doubtful for Sunday’s game at Miami. The NFL’s second-leading rusher is still nursing a hamstring injury he suffered during Wednesday’s practice. McCoy has been a huge part of Buffalo’s recent four-game win streak. He has four touchdowns on the ground and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. If McCoy’s injury lingers, they would turn to backup Mike Gillislee to handle most of the load against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday.
Oakland Raiders (4-2 SU, 3-3-0 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3 SU, 2-2-1 ATS)—Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games as a -0½-3.00 favorite. The Jaguars games have gone under the total by a 5-2 margin in games in which they are a -0.3-5.0 favorite. Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games in after it suffered an ATS loss and is 7-2 ATS in the last six games in which it suffered a double-digit loss.
Indianapolis Colts (2-4 SU, 2-3-1 ATS at Tennessee Titans (3-3 SU, 2-4-0 ATS)—The Titans are 0-6-2 in their last eight games as a favorite and stand 15-35-3 ATS in their last 53 home games. The over is 7-2 in Tennessee’s last nine games. The Colts are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a straight up loss.
Baltimore Ravens (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) at New York Jets (1-4 SU, 1-3-1 ATS)—The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss and are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of -0½-3.00 and stand 0-6 in those games as a home favorite. Baltimore is 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 games coming off a loss and are 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 games against teams with a losing record. Geno Smith starts at QB in place o Ryan Fitzpatrick who is off to a terrible start.
San Diego Chargers (2-4 SU, 4-2-0 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (5-2 SU, 5-1-0 ATS)—Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their next game following a straight up loss and are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite. San Diego is 24-8-1 ATS as a road underdog of between 3.0-10.00 points and are 0-5 ATS in the last five games they have played in that situation. The under has prevailed by a 9-2 margin in Atlanta’s last 12 home games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3 SU, 2-3-0 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (1-5 SU, 1-5-0 ATS)—San Francisco 2-6-0 ATS in their last eight games against teams with losing records. Tampa Bay is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games as a favorite and 2-9-1 in its last 12 games as a road favorite of from -0½-3.0. The last 26 games played at the 49ers has seen the under prevail by a 20-6 margin.
New England Patriots (5-1 SU, 5-1-0 ATS) at Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)—The under is 8-2 in the Steelers last 10 games and 21-10-1 against teams with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog. New England is 1-4 ATS in its last five games against teams with winning records and is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games played on grass. Steelers receiver Sammie Coates has a fractured finger. Coates played with it against the Dolphins and plans to continue to do so. With fellow wideout Markus Wheaton re-injuring his shoulder, backup quarterback Landry Jones could use all the weapons he has in relief of Ben Roethlisberger (knee).
Seattle Seahawks (4-1 SU, 2-3-0 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (2-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS)—Arizona is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 home games and stand 2-8 ATS against their last 10 opponents who had a winning record. Seattle is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games and 12-4-2 ATS in is last 18 as a road underdog.
NFL Betting Menu For Sunday
Last Sunday’s 5-1 NFL Record
100 Units… Chiefs (-2) 26, Raiders 10 (Won)
25 Units… Redskins (+3) 27, Eagles 20 (Won)
15 Units… Cowboys (+5) 30, Packers 16 (Won)
10 Units… Falcons (+7) 24, Seahawks 26 (Won)
10 Units… Steelers (-7) 15, Dolphins 30 (Lost)
NFL BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY, OCT. 23
Kelso reserves right to change any of these selections should a late change in circumstances occur
(Home Team In CAPS)
Los Angeles Rams (3-3 SU, 3-2-1 ATS) +3 by 7 over New York Giants (3-3 SU, 2-4-0)—Los Angeles plays everybody tough and has enough edges in this game to win it straight up. At this stage of the game it is difficult to take the Giants as a 3-point favorite in any game played away from East Rutherford and this one is in London.
Minnesota Vikings (5-0 SU, 5-0-0 ATS) -3 by 9-10 over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (3-2 SU, 3-2-0 ATS)—The Vikings are playing better football than any team in the NFL, including New England, and should dominate the Eagles as quarterback Sam Bradford faces an Eagles team that got rid of him. The Eagles may be better than their record, but rookie quarterback Carson Wentz (North Dakota State) is going to make the mistakes that get them beat when they play good teams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-3 SU, 2-3-0 ATS) -1 by 9-10 over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (1-5 SU, 1-5-0 ATS)—My figures say the 49ers have replaced the Cleveland Browns as the worst team in the NFL, averaging a league-worst 292.8 yards per game on offense while also fielding the 27th-ranked defense (398.8 yards and 30.8 points per game) and seem up against it today against a Bucs team that is ready to play its best game of the season.