Volume 18, Edition 10... October 27-28, 2016

Volume 18, Edition 10… October 27-28, 2016

ACC Showdown Battle Virginia Tech-Pittsburgh Plus Jaguars-Titans NFL Matchup Gets It Done In 50-Unit Parlay Thursday Night… Just $25

Nationally Televised Navy (5-1) At South Florida (5-1) Appears To Be Standout 50-Unit Play Friday Night

Have Buried The NBA For Past Several Seasons And Am Off To Another Winning Start—Get The Entire NBA Season For Early-Bird Price Of $195

Alabama At Least 1 Touchdown Better Than Every Other College Team But Future May Belong To Washington

100-Unit Big Ten Game Of Year Wins Saturday

By Kelso Sturgeon

Just when one thinks college football could not become better, it does. Just when you think the NFL cannot get worse, it does. My figures college figures suggest there has been few years in the past when there were so many good teams. They also confirm what my eyes are seeing in the NFL—that never in the league’s history has there been more dreadfully inept teams.

The run to college football’s national championship will definitely go through the Alabama Crimson Tide which has won the last two title games and four of the last seven, grades out at least a touchdown better than any other team in the country. In the NFL everything points to another Super Bowl win for New England and a true contender has yet to surface.

The Golden Nugget sports book in Las Vegas has posted lines on four possible matchups in the national championship game and Alabama is favored in all of them…

  • Alabama -7 over Ohio State
  • Alabama -7½ over Clemson
  • Alabama -8½ over Michigan
  • Alabama -12 over Washington

These are the opinion of an outstanding bookmaker and they certainly do not include all the teams that have a shot to play in the Big Game for all the marbles. There are several key matchups Saturday and three of them will be front and center in he run for the money.

  • Clemson (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) is -5 at Florida State (4-2, SU, 3-3 ATS)
  • Nebraska (7-0 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) is a 9½ underdog at Wisconsin (5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS)
  • Washington (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) is a -9½ at Utah (7-1 SU, 4-3 ATS)

The future is on the line in these free games and there is nothing in he books that says Florida State, Nebraska or Utah has to lose. This is not to suggest a play on any of the three underdogs but merely to point out this season is loaded with very good teams—possibly even a great one in Alabama—and one can take nothing for granted.

Betting Menu For Thursday
(When Viewing The Unit Ratings Given Each Game, Keep In Mind My Average Play Is Between 10-15 Units)

50-Unit Two Team NFL/College Football Parlay
20 Units on Virginia Tech (5-2)  at Pittsburgh (5-2)
20 Units On Jaguars (2-4) at Titans (3-4)
10 Unit Parlay On Both Winners

Knockout 15-Unit NBA Winner
This Team Should Cover The Number By At Least 10 Points

Betting Menu For Friday
(When Viewing The Unit Ratings Given Each Game, Keep In Mind My Average Play Is Between 10-15 Units)

50-Unit American Athletic Conference Game Of Year
Navy (5-1) at South Florida (6-2)

50-Unit NBA Game Of The Week
Cash In On One Of Softest Betting Lines You Will See This Season

Saturday Betting Menu
(When Viewing The Unit Ratings Given Each Game, Keep In Mind My Average Play Is Between 10-15 Units)

100-Unit Big Ten Game Of The Year
Other Releases Yet To Be Decided And Will Reveal Them in Friday’s News Letter

All Games Available On Internet At www.KelsoSportsHandicapping.com
And Toll Free At 1-800-755-2255

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Browns Are Woeful 0-7 But May Get A Little Help This Weekend

The only thing good one can say about the NFL’s Cleveland Browns (0-7) is that the San Francisco 49ers (1-6) are a worse team. It is a matter of public record I predicted Cleveland will go 0-16 this season and it is of note the only year they ever opened 0-7 came in 1999 in their first year as an expansion team. I still stand by the 0-16 prediction but must note help may be on the way for bettors. Veteran Cleveland quarterback Josh McCown has been out several weeks with a broken collarbone and could return Sunday. He has practiced all week and says he is ready to go.

McCown would replace rookie Cody Kessler who is one of six individuals to start for the Browns in their first seven games. The bottom line on Kessler (Southern California) is that he has good feet and can run the ball but can’t throw long, except to the opposing team.

Cleveland is a perfect example of what an ignorant owner and a less competent front office can do to a team that at the NFL level of play should be able to beat somebody—anybody. First-year coach Hue Jackson is a winner but he will have a hard time proving it with the group management has put together.

Just call it “Mission Impossible”.

Cleveland is a 3-point home ‘dog against the New York Jets this week. Maybe the NFL and the Cleveland owner and front office would realize Browns fans are fed up and tired of this—all the promises and the battle cry of wait-‘til-next year”—an start doing what San Francisco Fans are doing, i.e. staying home by the tens of thousands on game day.

Alabama Is A TD Better Than Any College Team And May Even Be Better Than 1-2 NFL Teams

Alabama (7-0) won’t beat badly or otherwise trample any other college team Saturday but that is only because it has a bye week before heading to Baton Rouge to take on the Bengal Cats of LSU, which also is off this week.

Kelso’s College Top 15

  1. Alabama (9-0)—Off this week… At least a TD better than any other team.
  2. Michigan (7-0)—At Michigan State (2-5)… Experience and depth paying big dividends.
  3. Washington (7-0)—At Utah (7-1)… Huskies are already the power team of the West.
  4. Clemson (7-0)—at Florida State (5-2)… FSU presents THE acid test.
  5. Louisville (6-1)—At Virginia (2-5)… Has talent to beat any team.
  6. Ohio State (6-1)—Hosts Northwestern (4-3)… Penn State exploited all of Buckeyes weaknesses.
  7. Florida State (5-2)—Hosts Clemson (7-0)… Seminoles much better than record.
  8. Wisconsin (5-2)—Hosts Nebraska (7-0)… Talented enough to beat anybody.
  9. Texas A&M (6-1)—Hosts New Mexico State (2-5)… Loss to Alabama takes nothing away from Aggies.
  10. Florida (5-1)—Vs Georgia in Jacksonville… Gators have much to prove despite record.

Rounding out the Top 15: 11th Nebraska (7-0), 12th West Virginia (6-0), 13th Baylor (6-0), 14th Auburn (5-2), 15th Utah (7-1).

Current NFL, College Football, NBA Power Ratings, Injury Reports
and Handicapping Info available 24-7 at www.KelsoSportsHandicapping.com

Don’t Let One Game Fog Your Focus On NBA Teams

It is a matter of public record that I am one of the few public handicappers comfortable with betting the NBA. While some say they find it just too difficult to handicap, my position lands at the other end of the spectrum—not easy to handicap but quite rich in winners if you understand what the game is all about.

As usual I began the new NBA season a winner, getting the cash with a 15-unit bet on the Portland Trail Blazers (-5½) with their 113-104 victory over the much-improved Utah Jazz, while losing a 5-unit play on the New York Knicks who were blown out at Cleveland. 1-1 and plus 10 units to get things rolling.

It admittedly is a challenge to get a line on each of the 30 NBA teams at the beginning of the season and a good guideline of what the future holds can be found in black and white at sports books who post odds current futures odds and the projected number of wins each team figures to capture.

For instance, as you can see below, the Golden State Warriors are the odds-on 2-3 favorites to recapture the NBA championship and are projected to win 66 games. At the other end of the spectrum the Brooklyn Nets at 1000-1 and the projected winner of 21 of the 82 games they will play.

Betting lines are supposed to bring both teams in all games together but they do not always do that. There is no better example than last night’s Cleveland-New York Knicks game. The Cavaliers were 9-point favorites and won by 29, 117-88. Talent wins games and that means sometimes one should give a different weight to the number in games in which superior teams meet lesser talented squads.

It is also important to remember one game does not a season make. While the underdog San Antonio Spurs buried those favored Golden State Warriors by 29 points in that game, going ahead into the other 81 games. Things happen. Golden State was a an 8-point home favorite in that one and lost 129-100. The loss was no tragedy and simply sets the stage for a possible bounce-back win at the New Orleans Pelicans Friday night (on ESPN).

Just remember what happens in a single game often dictates the outcome of the teams’ next outing.
Listed below are the odds to win the NBA championship, along with the projected number of wins Las Vegas books calculate each team will win. Study them; in the overall scheme of things they mean something.

Odds To Win NBA Championship
(All Odds From Westgate Super Book, Las Vegas)

Team Opening Odds Current Odds Projected Number Of Wins
Atlanta Hawks 40-1 60-1 44
Boston Celtics 20-1 20-1 52
Brooklyn Nets 500-1 1000-1 21
Charlotte Hornets 80-1 200-1 41
Chicago Bulls 40-1 100-1 39
Cleveland Cavaliers 5-2 11-4 56
Dallas Mavericks 100-1 300-1 39
Denver Nuggets 100-1 200-1 36
Detroit Pistons 100-1 80-1 44
Golden State Warriors 3-2 2-3 66
Houston Rockets 60-1 100-1 43
Indiana Pacers 100-1 100-1 45
Los Angeles Clippers 16-1 20-1 54
Los Angeles Lakers 100-1 500-1 25
Memphis Grizzlies 80-1 100-1 44
Miami Heat 25-1 200-1 34
Milwaukee Bucks 100-1 200-1 36
Minnesota Timberwolves 60-1 100-1 41
New Orleans Pelicans 60-1 100-1 36
New York Knicks 100-1 60-1 40
Oklahoma City Thunder 8-1 30-1 45
Orlando Magic 100-1 200-1 36
Philadelphia 76ers 100-1 300-1 24
Phoenix Suns 300-1 500-1 28
Portland Trail Blazers 60-1 80-1 45
Sacramento Kings 100-1 300-1 33
San Antonio Spurs 6-1 6-1 57
Toronto Raptors 25-1 40-1 50
Utah Jazz 80-1 80-1 47
Washington Wizards 100-1 100-1 43