Football Forecast Issue 11 - Nov 4-7, 2016
KELSO STURGEON’S FOOTBALL FORECAST
Volume 18, Edition 11… November 5-7, 2016
It's November! I am no longer dealing with maybe games involving maybe teams. By now, the games are gut games where everything is on the line. Team play is sharper. Recognition is instant. By now - with the wannabees weeded out - starting Saturday, November 12th through Monday November 28th - are the 22 best games of the year - games so certain to win, I have tabbed most of them 50, 75, 100 and even 200 units! So let's not waste a second. Get in as soon as you can. Dollars are never too early!
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100 Unit College Upset of the Month on Saturday, Right Back On Sunday With 50-Unit NFL Blowout
NFL More Difficult To Predict As Referees Take Over The Game With Literally Stupid Marginal Calls, But In Spite Of It All I Am Still Winning
Undefeated 8-0 Washington Huskies Hacked Off About Their Playoff Rating And Are Most Incentive Driven Team in College Football Saturday
Alabama-LSU, Broncos At Raiders National TV Showdowns Highlight 3-0 Saturday-Sunday Best Best Bet Packages
By Kelso Sturgeon
Open your eyes, my betting friend. Wake up. The money is there for the taking in college football because an absolutely predictable annual phenomenon is occurring even though bettors and bookmakers alike are again missing it. Simply put the strong college teams are now better than ever while the lesser teams, as they always do at this time of the year, run out of gas and fall off the edge of the world.
There is a reason Alabama is 8-0 and 8-0 Clemson are still kickin' ass and taking names. There is also a reason why early-season bloomers such as Central Michigan opened 3-0, including a somewhat tainted win at Oklahoma State, and has since gone 2-4 and 0-2 in its last two games. One could say the same for Houston which opened with a win over Oklahoma, took the money in four more to become 5-0 and ranked 4th in the nation's Top 25 - and since has gone 2-2 and seen its championship hopes crash and burn.
College football is all about talent and teams such as Alabama and Clemson who may for the second straight year play for the national championship have it. They have nothing but blue-chip players three players deep at every position on their depth charts. One gets hurt, the next man up is just as good. Lesser teams do not have this luxury. Many, such as Central Michigan and Houston, began the season with their first units on offense and defense capable of playing anybody. But unlike the teams loaded with blue-chip talent the second and third units on their depth charts are far less talented than the starters.
For the lesser teams it is a case of injuries and attrition taking a toll even before the starters literally wear out - too tired to walk, talk or chew - and can last about a half a game before just losing their focus and giving it up. Most of these teams have the talent and depth to play 3-4 games at peak efficiency and then it is lights out, regardless of the perceived quality of their opponents.
Teams beat up and out of gas lose when they appear to be able to win.
Pay attention. Bettors need to be aware of this as we head into the final month of the college season. The big boys have the talent and everything else it takes to play at 100% of their potential right through game number 12, without taking a deep breath. The others just hope to survive and win a game or two.
For this reason we seen over-rated teams such as Baylor lose to supposedly inferior teams such as Texas, and is the reason a team such as Akron can one Saturday beat Ball State 35-25 as a 3.5-point underdog and the following Saturday take on the worst Buffalo team in years and as a 19.5-point favorite lose by three touchdowns, 41-20.
I bring up this point because what you see may not be what you get, meaning that while any team can be bet at the right price, successful handicappers will dig deeply into the facts - both obvious and hidden - before knowing everything about the current condition of each team. Teams that have been worn down by the long season but do not really show it in their won-lost records will have trouble winning, let alone covering the number.
Saturday's Football Betting Schedule
Sunday's Football Betting Schedule
Stunning 50-Unit NFL Blowout...$50
25-Unit Sunday Night Play On Denver (6-2) at Oakland (6-2)..$25
3-Game NFL Package 1 Favorite, 1 Underdog, 1 Total...$15
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6-2 With Last 8 NBA Plays Including 50-Unit Winner - College Season Begins Next Friday With 62 Games
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I am off to an excellent start in the NBA basketball season and expect that to continue when the colleges take the stage next Friday night with 62 games - with at least 15 of them on national television. It is going to be a marquee launch as some of the best teams in the country begin play. Some of the outstand games include: Vanderbilt vs. Marquette, Michigan State vs. Arizona, Indiana vs. Kansas
I am ready to roll and will launch the college season with a full slate of winners and you can get the entire basketball season for the early-bird price of just $190.
6-2 In NBA Past 4 Days
11/2...15 Units...Clippers (-7) 83, Thunder 85 (Lost)
11/2...10 Units...Jazz (-4.5) 97, Mavericks 81 (Won)
11/2...10 Units...Trail Blazers (-2.5) 115, Suns 118 (OT) (Lost)
11/1...50 Units...Timberwolves (-7.5) 116, Grizzlies 80 (Won)
10/31...15 Units...Clippers (-12.5) 116, Suns 98 (Won)
10/31...10 Units...Bulls (-6) 118, Nets 88 (Won)
10/30...15 Units...Spurs (-6.5) 106, Heat 99 (Won)
10/30...10 Units...Pistons (-7.5) 98, Bucks 83 (won)
College Handicapping Hints For Saturday, Nov. 5
Navy (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) at Notre Dame (3-5 SU, 3-5-0 ATS) - This game is being played on a neutral field at EverBank Field (home of the Jacksonville Jaguars) in Jacksonville, Florida. Navy has scored at least 42 points in its last three games, ranks 5th in the nation in rushing, averaging 296.6 yards per game (Notre Dame gives up an average of 149.8 per game), but showed a new offensive dimension in last week's loss to South Florida as senior QB Will Worth passed for a career high 299 yards.
Air Force (5-3 SU, 3-5-0 ATS) at Army (5-3 SU, 5-3-0 ATS) - Army has played well enough this season it might have enough to get it done against a subpar Air Force team. Air Force has gone 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with the Cadets and goes for its fourth straight in against them today.
Texas (4-4 SU, 5-3-0 ATS) at Texas Tech (4-4 SU, 6-2 ATS) - Texas RB D'Onta Foreman is the 2nd-ranked college rusher this season with an average of 157.9 yards per game (250 last week in the Longhorns upset of previously unbeaten Baylor) and will see plenty of action today as his team tries to control the ball and limit Texas Tech's time on the field. Tech's rapid-fire offense leads the nation in passing with an overall offense that average 600.3 yards and 47.4 points per game.
Texas A&M (7-1 SU, 4-4-0 ATS) at Mississippi State (3-5 SU, 3-5-0 ATS) - There is a lot on the line for Texas A&M in this game since the Aggies, who have lost only to top-ranked Alabama (33-14), are ranked in the 4th spot in the playoff rankings that decides the final four teams that will compete for the national championship. Texas A&M beat the Bulldogs, 30-17, last season at home as a 40-point favorite but on their trip to Starkville two seasons ago lost, 48-31, as a 3-point choice.
Wisconsin (6-2 SU, 6-2-0 at Northwestern (4-4 SU, 5-3-0 ATS) - Wisconsin is ranked 8th in the playoff standings and is better than its record. The Badgers two losses this season have come at the hands of #3 Michigan, 14-7, and in overtime to #6 Ohio St, 30-23 - with both games on the road. Northwestern is playing at the top of its game right now, has won three of its last four games and comes into this off a hard-fought loss at Ohio State, 24-20 as a 26-point underdog. I think there is plenty of evidence that says the Wildcats are quite under-rated.
Louisville (7-1 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) at Boston College (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) - Louisville is ranked 7th in the playoff standings and has show a bad habit this season of playing down to its competition. The Cardinals come into this game off a 32-25 last-second win at Virginia, 32-25. Louisville QB and the leading candidate to win the Heisman Trophy, Lamar Jackson, has accounted for as many or more touchdowns than all but 22 of the NCAA Division-!A teams. He's worth the price of admission.
Georgia Tech (5-3 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) at North Carolina (6-2 SU, 5-3-0 ATS) - North Carolina is chasing Virginia Tech for the ACC Coast Division championship, is certainly motivated but will have to face a red-hot QB in Justin Thomas who was named College Player of the Week after accounting for 459 yards of total offense (264 passing, 195 rushing) in last week's 38-35 win over Duke. The Tar Heels have won the last two against Georgia Tech and have now won 17 of their past 21 games and stand 12-1 in their last 13 regular-season conference games.
Iowa (5-3 SU, 3-5-0 ATS) at Penn State (6-2 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) - Three weeks ago Penn State fans were calling for the ouster of coach James Franklin but after beating Ohio State and blowing away Purdue, they want to appoint him King. The 20th-ranked Nittany Lions are ranked 12th in the college playoff standings and will challenge a disappointing Iowa team with one of the strongest home field bias figures in the country. Penn State is 5-0 in University Park this season and 11-1 in its last 12 home games.
Alabama (8-0 SU, 6-2-0 ATS) at LSU (5-2 SU, 3-4-0 ATS) - Top-ranked in all the polls Alabama, the defending national champion, is a slim 7.5-point favorite at LSU, despite the fact it was a double-digit favorite in all its previous games. The Crimson Tide are going for their 21st straight win in this one and are the complete football team - a great offense and a better defense - one that has scored nine touchdowns this season. LSU builds its hopes around superstar running back Leonard Fournette who despite missing three games, has rushed for 670 yards and five touchdowns. This one is not for boys in short pants.
Nebraska (7-1 SU, 5-2-1 ATS at Ohio State (7-1 SU, 4-4-0 ATS) - Ohio State certainly deserves to be the favorite in this one - but 17 points? The Buckeyes opened the season in a manner that suggested they could slug it out on even terms with Alabama but that is a fleeting memory. In its last three games, Ohio State won at Wisconsin, 30-23 in overtime, lost at Penn State, 24-21 as a 17.5-point favorite and was pushed to the limit last week to get past Northwestern, 24-20. The Cornhuskers suffered their only loss of the season last Saturday at Wisconsin, 23-17 in overtime, and will certainly make the Buckeyes prove themselves today.
Washington (8-0 SU, 4-4-0 ATS) at California (4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS) - Washington heads into Berkeley for this PAC-12 showdown more incentive-driven than any team playing today. The upstart Huskies were quite pissed off when the first playing rankings had them in the 5th spot, one place behind once-beaten Texas A&M. Washington is a 16.5-point road favorite in this one and while they should win it, the cover is, as always, up in the air. Washington averages 46.1 points per game while
California checks in at 41.3. The listed total is 77. Maybe a total?
Legend SU = Straight Up...ATS = Against The Spread
COLLEGE BEST BETS FOR SATURDAY
Navy Midshipmen (5-2) +6.5 by 7 over Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-5) - Notre Dame has done little to impress me this season and a win over a mediocre Miami team still does not move me. Navy always comes to play and in the past as given the Fighting Irish big-time trouble, always as an underdog. This game is being played on a neutral field, EverBank Stadium, in Jacksonville, Florida.
ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS (5-3) -1.5 by 7-10 over Air Force Falcons (5-3) - Army has been a bit unpredictable this season, beating Temple and Wake Forest while losing to the likes of Buffalo and North Texas, but seems to have what it takes to get a rare win over Air Force, which stands 9-1 in the last 10 games played in this series. I have seen Air Force play four times this season on TV and believe me, this team does not compare favorable with any Falcons team of the decade.
Pittsburgh Panthers (5-3) +3.5 by 6-7 over MIAMI HURRICANES (4-4) - My figures say Pitt is a solid touchdown better than the host Hurricanes and should win this one straight up. The Panthers come into this game off a powerful performance in a 39-36 loss against Virginia Tech, has practiced with great intensity this week and should hand Miami its fifth straight loss. In short, the wrong side is favored in this one.
COLORADO STATE RAMS (4-4) -15 by 21-24 over Fresno State Bulldogs (1-8) - Colorado State does not have its usual talent this season and because of it may be unable to beat the better teams on its schedule but is a standout play over the weakest Fresno State seen I have seen in years. Fresno State has beaten only !-AA Sacramento State this season and has been crushed by all its I-A opponents.
Tulane Green Wave (3-5) +16.5 over CENTRAL FLORIDA BULLS (4-4) - This game was postponed earlier in the season because of Hurricane Matthew and while I like Tulane to cover I do expect the Bulls to win the game. Under first year coach Willie Fritz who went 18-7 in two seasons at Georgia Southern the Green Wave has been whipped into a real football team and is going to give every opponent problems. My figures say Tulane will take this one right to the money.
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Handicapping NFL By Numbers Sunday
Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3 SU, 4-3-0 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (3-4 SU, 2-4-1 ATS) - The Baltimore Ravens are 2-13=-2 in their last 17 games as a favorite. Pittsburgh is 6-22-1 ATS in its last 29 games against teams with a losing record.
Dallas Cowboys (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (0-8 SU, 2-6-0 ATS) - The Cleveland Browns are 3-13 in their last 16 games as an underdog. Dallas last nine games on the grass have gone under the total by an 8-1 margin.
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) SU, 2-4-1 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) - Kansas City is 1-5 in its last six games as a home favorite. Jacksonville is 1-4-1 in its last six games as a road 'dog and the Jaguars have seen the total go over by a margin in their last 13 games as an underdog.
New York Jets (3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (3-4 SU, 3-4-0 ATS) - Miami is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games and is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games against teams with losing records. Jets are 0-4 in last four games as 'dog and stand 1-5 in their last 6 games on the grass.
Indianapolis Colts (3-5 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (4-3 SU, 5-2-0 ATS) - Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with losing records but is 6-2-1 ATS overall in its last nine games. The Colts are 3-9 in their last 12 games following a double-digit loss. The total has gone over by a 10-3 margin in the Colts last 13 as an underdog.
Detroit Lions (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (5-2 SU, 5-2-0 ATS - The under has prevailed by a 19-7 margin in these teams last 27 meetings. Vikings are 16-5 ATS following a SU loss while Lions are 2-9 in ATS in their last 11 games against teams from the NFC North.
Philadelphia Eagles (4-3 SU, 4-3-0 ATS) at New York Giants (4-3 SU, 4-3-0 ATS) - The Giants are 1-4 ATs in their last five games as a favorite while the Eagles stand 3-7 in their last 10 against NFC teams. The Eagles have seen the over prevail by a 10-4 margin in their last 14 games.
Tennessee Titans (4-4 SU, 3-5-0 ATS) at San Diego Chargers (3-5 SU, 5-3-0 ATS) - San Diego is 8-1 ATS in its las nine games following a SU loss and is 9-3 ATS overall in its last 12 games. The Titans are 8-24-1 in their last 33 after a SU win and are 13-36-3 ATS in their last 52 games.
Carolina Panthers (2-5 SU, 2-5-0 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (3-4 SU, 3-3-1 ATS) - The Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after a bye week. Carolina is 14-6 in its last 20 games on grass and has seen the over prevail by an 8-1 margin in its last nine games as an underdog.
New Orleans Saints (3-4 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (1-6 SU, 1-6-0 ATS) - San Francisco is 0-5 in its last five games following a loss and stands 8-20-1 overall ATS in its last 22 games. New Orleans is 3-12-1 in its last 16 games as the favorite.
Denver Broncos (6-2 SU, 6-2-0 ATS) at Oakland Raiders (6-2 SU, 5-3-0 ATS) - Oakland is 0-7 ATS in its last seven home games and is 16-35 in its last 51 as a favorite. Denver is 6-2-1 in its last nine games against teams with winning records, is 9-4 in its last 13 contests against teams from he AFC West and stands 8-2-1 overall in its last 11 games.
Legend SU = Straight Up...ATS = Against The Spread
All Figures Listed Here Are ATS Unless Otherwise Specified
NFL BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY
Philadelphia Eagles (4-3) +2 by 7 over NEW YORK GIANTS (4-3) - There is no question in my mind the Eagles are much better than their record - more like the team that opened 3-0 before going 1-3 in its last four games. The Eagles come to play and have been in each of the last four games, beating the Vikings 21-10, while losing at Detroit 24-23, at Washington 27-20 and at Dallas 23-29. After that run the unpredictable Giants look like a chicken dinner.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (3-4) +3 by 7 over Carolina Panthers (2-5) - The Rams have a strong winning history coming off a bye week and I do expect their defense to come out looking for blood and keep Panthers QB Cam Newton running for his life. Insiders in the L.A. camp tell me the team has had excellent practices this week and are ready to fire their best shot.
Minnesota Vikings (5-2)-Detroit Lions (4-4) UNDER 40.5 points - Minnesota comes into this game off back-to-back losses in which it scored 10 points in each game. In the interim Vikings offensive coordinator Norv Turner resigned - on his own - and that is not a formula for offensive success. Factor in the Minnesota defense that gives up just 14.9 points and 297.1 yards per game and the foundation has been laid for a very low-scoring affair. My figures say 35 or less points will be scored.
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