Football Forecast Weekend Newsletter Nov 18-20

KELSO STURGEON’S FOOTBALL FORECAST
Volume 18, Edition 13… November 19-21, 2016

Go 7-0 Saturday With 100-Unit College Triple Crown Of Month
Win 3 Straight Bets And 4 Parlays With This Giant Turkey Shoot Score
Oklahoma/WVU...Virginia Tech/Notre Dame...Washington State/Colorado

Bettors Beware As Championship Hopefuls Alabama Ohio State, Michigan May Be Looking Ahead To Next Week’s Bitter Rivalry Showdown Games

50-Unit NFL Sunday Night Game Of Month Wins As Part Of Turkey Shoot Package
Packers (4-5) At Redskins (5-3-1) 

By Kelso Sturgeon

Seldom does business take care of itself in the real world but in college football inattention to business solves almost all issues, like the things that will determine which four teams will make it to the national championship plays. Louisville proved that again Thursday night in getting blown away in Houston, following in the footsteps of previously undefeated Michigan, Clemson and Washington, teams that all lost last Saturday.

The road to the national championship is a challenge over-loaded with risk every time one of the contenders takes the field. Even though Louisville had lost but one game-to Clemson by 6 points-it was very much in the running to be among the Final Four but an on-the-field business took care of that as underdog Houston (+17) absolutely embarrassed a sleep-walking Louisville team, 36-10.

As were Michigan, Clemson and Washington the week before, this was a must-win game for Louisville because a second loss would assuredly knock them out of the Final Four. It has been years since I have seen a team perform so poorly in a game it had to win. The Cardinals were out of it early, appeared to have over-dosed on some sleep-inducing medication, and were embarrassed beyond words in this shameful performance.

Thus another reminder as we head into the final weeks of the season teams that "have to win" simply do not have to win. Just keep reminding yourself of that and remember…
Clemson, a 22-point home favorite over Pittsburgh, lost 43-42.
Michigan, a 24-point road favorite, lost to Iowa, 14-13.
Washington, an 8.5-point home favorite, lost to Southern California, 26-13.
Louisville, a 17.0-point road favorite, was crushed at Houston, 36-10.

Of note Pittsburgh, Iowa, Southern California and Houston were not even in the running to get to the championship plays.

New Dynamic In Play For Contenders Saturday

Winning football bets have more to do with one remains ahead and bettor need to be aware three of the contending teams face that situation Saturday.

#1st-ranked Alabama (10-0) hosts I-AA Chattanooga (8-2) and will be a giant favorite but may just go through the motions as it hosts arch-rival Auburn next week. Open to a back-door cover this week, even thought the Crimson Tide in their last two games against Chattanooga is 12-0 lifetime against the Moccasins and in their last two meets won 45-0 and 49-0.

#2nd- ranked Ohio State (9-1) is a 22.5-point favorite at Michigan State and faces its most important game of the season next week in hosting Michigan. A backdoor cover?

#3rd-ranked Michigan (9-1) is a 23-point home favorite over Indiana and, as noted above, plays at Ohio State next week. A backdoor cover. Just food for thought.

Go 7-0 Saturday With 100-Unit College Triple Crown Of Month
Win 3 Straight Bets And 4 Parlays With This Giant Turkey Shoot Score
Oklahoma/WVU...Virginia Tech/Notre Dame...Washington State/Colorado

The biggest eight days of the 2016 college football and NFL seasons begins Saturday with my 100-unit College Triple Crown of the month and runs for eight days with 14 big-game plays, including my 200-UNIT NFL GAME OF THE YEAR SUNDAY, NOV. 27 before closing out on Monday night with a 50-unit play on the Packers at Eagles game. In other words, it is my annual - and always successful - November to Remember/Thanksgiving Turkey Shoot Package that not only is loaded with big-game plays but is modestly priced at $149, Get on board today, charging the $149 to your major credit card or to you Pay Pal account. Again, this is proof you do not have to spend a fortune to win one. The next eight days could be your most profitable of the entire football season.

Saturday’s 100-Unit College Triple Crown - Go 7-0 With 3 Straight Bets & 4 Parlays - Just $50 Click here
Oklahoma at West Virginia, Virginia Tech at Notre Dame, Washington State at Colorado

Sunday’s 50-Unit NFL Sunday Night Game Of Month
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins

Monday’s 25-Unit Monday Night Showdown
Texans-Raiders Game

The Rest Of The Turkey Shoot

Thursday: 50-Unit TV/NFL Parlay
Redskins at Cowboys & LSU at Texas A&M

Friday: 50-Unit Texas Game of the Year
TCU at Texas Plus Washington at Washington State, Boise State at Air Force, Nebraska at Iowa

Saturday: 200-Unit Break The Bank Grand Slam
Michigan at Ohio State, Auburn at Alabama, Florida State at Florida, Utah at Colorado

Sunday: 200-Unit NFL Game of the Year

Monday: 50-Unit Monday Night Special
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles

 

COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS FOR SATURDAY

Oklahoma State Cowboys (8-2) +4.5 by 7 over TCU HORNED FROGS (5-4) - TCU gets a little help by coming off a bye week but I just do not think the Frogs have the firepower to keep up with an Oklahoma State team that can give up a lot of points and still win.

Wisconsin Badgers (8-2) -28 by 35 over PURDUE BOILERMAKERS - Wisconsin remains very much alive to steal the Big Ten championship from Ohio State or Michigan, have had great practices this week and have most of the edges in this one. The Badgers offense is more than adequate and its defense is absolutely a lockdown one, giving up just 27.8 points per game.

Florida Gators (7-2) +14.5 by 3 over LSU TIGERS - It’s all on the line for Florida today if it intends to meet Alabama for the SEC championship and my figures say the Gators can win this one straight up, regardless of injuries on defense. Florida probably deserves to be a 2-TD underdog in this one but the matchups and the incentives are perfect to produce a very close game.

Buffalo Bulls (2-8) +35.5 over WESTERN MICHIGAN BRONCOS (10-0) - I can see no way Buffalo can win this game but the cover is quite another matter since the Broncos figure to play under wraps to get ready for next week’s showdown for all the marbles with Toledo. Just say the back-door cover gets it done.

Clemson Tigers (9-1) -22 by 31 over WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS (6-4) - Clemson is in major bounce-back form after losing at home to Pittsburgh last week and has all the tools to get the job done in a blowout. Clemson has won seven straight against Wake Forest, outscoring the Demon Deacons 264-94 is those games.

 

College Football Handicapping Hints For Saturday
Legend: SU - Straight Up, ATS - Against The Spread

Ohio State (9-1 SU, 6-4-0 ATS) at Michigan State (3-7, 3-7-0) - Ohio State and Michigan State meet in a giant rivalry game and the Buckeyes are 22-point favorites. Ohio State faces Michigan (9-1) next week and one must question whether this game is open to the backdoor cover should the Buckeyes back off late?

Iowa (6-4 SU, 4-6-0 ATS) at Illinois (3-7 SU, 3-7-0 ATS) - Iowa comes to this game in a major negative bounce mode having just Michigan upset Michigan 14-12 as a 24-point underdog. Is there any gas left in the tank for a team that has seen its offense go dead in its last three games, averaging just 12.3 points in those contests.

Oklahoma State (8-2 SU, 5-4-1 ATS) at TCU (5-4 SU, 2-7-0 ATS) - TCU comes into this game off a bye week that followed a 62-22 blowout win over Baylor while Oklahoma’s high-octane offense has led the team to victory in its past two games - over Texas Tech by 1 point and over Kansas State by 6 - but it is of note in those games its defense gave up a total of 88 points.

Wisconsin (8-2 SU, 8-2-0 ATS) at Purdue (3-7 SU, 4.5-1 ATS) - Wisconsin is one of four Big Ten teams rated among the top ten candidates to make it to the championship plays and certainly will come to play to protect its standing. Cover 27.5 - that is another question. It is of note the Badgers are two losses were to Ohio State in overtime and at Michigan by 7. Wisconsin goes for its 11th straight win in this series and one must remind Purdue has not won more than one Big Ten game in a season since 2012.

Kansas State (5-4 SU, 3-6-0) at Baylor (6-3 SU, 2-7-0 ATS) - This is a rebuilding year for Kansas State but they still go into this game as a 2-point favorite even though Baylor is 33-4 at home since 2011. Baylor opened the season 6-0 but has since lost three consecutive games - the last two in blowout fashion to Oklahoma 45-24 and the week before that to TCU, 62-22.

Florida (7-2 SU, 4-5-0 ATS) at LSU (6-3 SU, 4-5-0 ATS) - This is a make-up game that was originally scheduled for Gainesville but was postponed because of Hurricane Matthew. After some bitter debate between the two schools the game was shifted to Saturday in Baton Rouge. Florida has not won at Tiger Stadium since 2009 and will probably be missing its three leading tacklers for this game - all suffering from injuries.

Oregon (3-7 SU, 1-8-1 ATS) at Utah (8-2 SU, 6-4-0 ATS) - Nationally-ranked Utah buried Oregon, 62-20, last season in Eugene, but is this a look-ahead game for the Utes? Utah is at Colorado next week for a game that could decide the PAC-12 South title and a berth in the conference’s championship game. Any chance Oregon has to win this one will rest with its ability to stop senior running back Joe Williams who in his last four games has rushed for 86 yards and eight touchdowns.

Buffalo (2-8 SU, 3-7-0 ATS_ at Western Michigan (10-0 SU, 7-3-0 ATS) - Western Michigan can move within one game of a perfect season with an expected win in this spot. The 21st-ranked Broncos are the complete team on offense and defense and will be going for their 13th consecutive win in this one. Still, one must consider the back-door cover in this one. Western Michigan is a 35-point favorite but, facing powerful Toledo next week, might put the game away early and coast the rest of the way.

Indiana (5-5 SU, 4-6-0 ATS) at Michigan (9-1 SU, 5-5-0 ATS) - First, the important facts. Michigan has not lost at home to Indiana since 1967 and leads the nation in scoring defense (11.0 points per game) and total defense (244.7 yards per game). Those are strong figures and Michigan is rightfully a 23.5-point favorite but with a host of with a question or two. Michigan is in bounce-back form off a 1-point loss at Iowa last week and will not having starting QB Wilton Speight (shoulder injury) for this game. He will replaced by Houston transfer John O’Korn who will be making his first start for the Wolverines. Now throw into the mix the elephant in the room - the fact Michigan is at Ohio State next week - and handicapping this one becomes a major challenge.

Southern California (7-3 SU, 6-4-0 ATS) at UCLA (4-6 SU, 4-6-0 ATS) - USC comes into this game riding a six-game winning streak - it’s longest since 2008 - and last week flexed is muscles in Seattle by knocking off then 4th-ranked Washington, 26-13. UCLA fell apart early in the season and unlike USC never recovered. The Bruins lost at Texas A&M in its opening game, then lost five of six before beating a weak Oregon State team last week. It is of note UCLA is ranked 127th of 128 NCAA Division 1 teams in rushing, averaging just 87.2 yards per game.

 

NFL BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY

Tennessee Titans (5-5) +2.5 by 6 over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-5) - The Colts won the first meeting between these two teams, 34-26, in Nashville and the way Tennessee is playing right now my figures say they will extract their revenge today against an Indianapolis team trying to get it done with a porous offensive line.

DETROIT LIONS (5-4) -6.5 by 13 over Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) - Jacksonville has no running game, a quarterback who is playing terribly and those two very important things should make the Jaguars a sitting duck for a decent Lions team coming off a bye week.

Miami Dolphins (5-4) -2.5 by 7 over LOS ANGELES RAMS (4-5)

NFL Handicapping Hints For Sunday
Legend: SU - Straight Up, ATS - Against The Spread

Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) at Detroit Lions (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) - The Lions are 4-1 in their past five games and coming off a bye week find themselves in first place in the NFC North. To have any chance to win this game, Jacksonville is going to have to see better from QB Blake Bortles who has thrown 11 interceptions and 19 turnovers for the season. The Jaguars rank 27th of 32 teams on points scored at 19.3 per game.

Baltimore Ravens (5-4 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) at Dallas Cowboys (8-1 SU, 8-1 ATS) - The Ravens have the #1 rush defense in the NFL, giving up an average of just 85.3 yards per game and will certainly be tested by rookie running back sensation Ezekiel Elliott who leads the NFL in rushing with 1,005 yards. Baltimore is yet to give up 30 points per game this season and has the #1 overall defense in the league, surrendering 281.6 yards per game.

Pittsburgh Steelers (4-5 SU, 4-5-0 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (0-10 SU, 2-8 ATS) - Pittsburgh has dominated Cleveland for the past several years, standing 8-2 SU in its last 10 games with the Browns and 6-1 ATS in the last seven. To get the overall picture of just how bad Cleveland is, please note that in addition to being winless this season, the Browns have lost 13 straight reaching back to last seasons and stand 3-28 SU in their last 31 games and are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26.

Buffalo Bills (4-5 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (3-5-1 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) - This game features two teams desperate for a win and bettors can expect them to really go after one another. Cincinnati is 1-3-1 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games, while Buffalo has lost three of its last four. No question both teams are better than their records.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ((4-5 SU, 4-5-0 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) - Kansas City keeps finding ways to win, has won its last two by a total of 8 points and today goes for its 6th straight win. Tampa Bay is 3-1 on the road.

Arizona Cardinals (4-4-1 SU, 3-6-0 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (5-4 SU, 5-4-0 ATS) - Where has the Minnesota offense gone? The Vikings opened the season 5-0 with an offense that was in high gear, took of week #6 with a bye, and has since gone 0-4 with an offense that is averaging 14.0 points per game in those four losses. For me Arizona remains a mystery and might be most over-rated team in NFL. Figures speak to the truth.

Miami Dolphins (5-4 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (4-5 SU, 4-3-2 ATS) - The Rams must have grown tired of averaging just 308.0 yards of offense and just 15.4 points per game and have finally decided to go all-in by starting rookie quarterback Jared Goff (California), the #1 pick in the last draft, at quarterback. Still winning won’t come easy for the Rams who face an up-and-coming Miami team that is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in its last four games and was the ’dog in three of them.

New England Patriots (7-2 SU, 7-2-0 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (1-8 SU, 2-7-0 ATS) - The Patriots are an 11-point favorite in this one and frankly speaking there is no team coming off a loss that I would rather not play than New England which lost last week at home to Seattle, 31-24. New England stands 39-17-1 lifetime coming off a loss.