College Bowl and Final Week NFL Edition
KELSO STURGEON’S FOOTBALL FORECAST
Volume 18, Edition 18… December 31, 2016 - January 2, 2017
200-Unit College Bowl Game Of Year Wins Saturday
Alabama Solid 1-2 Favorite To Win 2nd Straight National Championship...Ohio State 3-1, Clemson 6-1 And Washington 15-1
Vegas Bookmakers Say It Will Be New England And Dallas In Super Bowl...Patriots 7-5 To Win It All, Cowboys 4-1
100-Unit NFL Stunner Gets The Cash Sunday
RPI Ratings, Strength Of Schedule Plays Extremely Important Role In Winning In College Basketball Right Now
By Kelso Sturgeon
The National Football League heads into the 17th and final week of its regular season without putting on its payroll 198 Philadelphia lawyers, and one each from Arkansas and South Dakota, to determine the status of each team heading to the post season. Ten of the 12 playoff spots have already been determined, leaving showdowns between the Green Bay Packers and the Detroit Lions and the Washington Redskins and the New York Giants to determine the remaining two participants. Before getting into the NFL playoffs, I want to remind you of two important games.
- On Saturday I will be releasing my 200-unit College Bowl Game of the Year and am looking to win it in a blow.
- On Sunday I intend to win my 5th straight 100-Unit NFL winner in December.
The winner of the Green Bay Packers (9-6) at Detroit Lions (9-5) advances while Washington (8-6-1) clinches a playoff spot with a win over the Giants as long as Green Bay-Detroit does not end in a tie. A member of Mensa also figured out Tampa Bay (8-7) can claim a spot in the post season if it beats the Carolina Panthers, the Washington Redskins game ends in a tie, Green Bay loses and Tampa Bay clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over the Packers - if Tennessee, Indianapolis, Dallas and San Francisco all win.
Of course some teams are still playing for divisional champions, a better seed in the playoffs, home field advantage...You get the idea.
Last but not least, the Cleveland Browns (1-14) and the San Francisco 49ers (2-13) are still battling for the #1 seed in the next NFL draft. Cleveland appeared to have that all wrapped up but beat San Diego for its first win last season to put the 49ers in the race - showing once again this absolutely dreadful and talentless team cannot get anything right.
San Francisco holds the edge over Cleveland if both teams end up with identical records since the 49ers have a lower strength of schedule. Just win, lose or tie, baby.
The complete playoff picture is listed below and comes directly from the NFL.
National Football Conference
Atlanta clinches a first-round bye:
1) ATL win
2) ATL tie + SEA loss or tie
3) SEA loss + DET loss or tie
4) SEA tie + DET loss
Seattle clinches a first-round bye:
1) SEA win + ATL loss or tie
2) SEA tie + ATL loss + GB/DET tie
Detroit clinches division title:
1) DET win
Detroit clinches a first-round bye:
1) DET win + SEA loss or tie + ATL loss
Detroit clinches a playoff berth:
1) DET tie
2) WAS loss or tie
Green Bay Packers
Green Bay clinches division title:
1) GB win or tie
Green Bay clinches a playoff berth:
1) WAS loss
2) WAS tie + TB win + GB clinches at least a tie in strength of victory over TB
(Note: GB clinches at least a tie in strength of victory tiebreaker over TB if one of the following teams win or tie: SEA, HOU, JAX, PHI. GB has already clinched strength of schedule tiebreaker over TB in this scenario)
Washington clinches a playoff berth:
1) WAS win + GB-DET game does not end in a tie
2) WAS tie + GB loss + TB loss or tie
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay clinches a playoff berth:
1) TB win + WAS tie + GB loss + TB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over GB
(Note: TB clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over GB if all of the following teams win: TEN, IND, DAL and SF
American Football Conference
CLINCHED: New England -- AFC East division title and first-round bye; Pittsburgh -- AFC North division title; Houston -- AFC South division title; Oakland -- playoff berth; Kansas City -- playoff berth; Miami -- playoff berth
New England Patriots
New England clinches home field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
1) NE win or tie
2) OAK loss or tie
Oakland clinches division title and a first-round bye:
1) OAK win or tie
2) KC loss or tie
Oakland clinches home field advantage throughout AFC playoffs:
1) OAK win + NE loss
Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City clinches division title and a first-round bye:
1) KC wins + OAK loss
Miami clinches No. 5 seed:
1) MIA win
200-Unit College Bowl Game Of The Year Wins Saturday
I Am Expecting A Dominating Performance By This Under-Rated Team
This is the biggest day of the college bowl season because I am going for another winning 200-unit College Bowl Game of the Year. There are four games on the schedule, including the two BCS semifinal games that match Washington and defending national champion Alabama in the Peach Bowl and Ohio State and Clemson in the Fiesta Bowl. I am not about to reveal which game I will be releasing as the game of the year but I assure you every contest to be played today is one handicappers can find many reasons to win. Suffice it to say, the game I am releasing is under-rated, has had excellent practices this week and comes with the bonus of an extremely soft betting line. This is a break-the-bank game and you can win it with me for just $50, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal
The Saturday Bowl Schedule
Citrus Bowl - Played In Orlando, FL
LSU Tigers (7-4) vs. Louisville Cardinals (9-3) 11:00 A.M. Eastern...On ABC
Taxslayer Bowl - Played In Jacksonville, FL
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (8-4) vs Kentucky Wildcats (7-5) 11:00 A.M. Eastern...ESPN
BCS Semifinal Games
Peach Bowl - Played In Atlanta, GA
Washington Huskies (12-1) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0) 3:00 Eastern...On ESPN
Fiesta Bowl - Played In Glendale, AZ
Ohio State Buckeyes (11-1) vs. Clemson Tigers 12-1) 7:00 Eastern...ESPN
Alabama 1-2 Favorite To Win 2nd Straight National Championship And 3rd In Last 5 Years
It has been my opinion from the first day of this college season defending champion Alabama (13-0) was at least a touchdown better than any Top 25 team in the country and the betting world agrees, making the Crimson Tide a solid 13.5 favorite over Washington in one of Saturday's semifinal playoff games. That is done a bit from the -14.5 offered earlier in the week but Alabama remains the 1-2 favorite to go the distance.
I never thought I would say this, but Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban has surpassed the legendary Paul "Bear" Bryant, a personal friend, is the best football coach in the history of Alabama football. Saban is in his 10th season in Tuscaloosa, took over a program in the doldrums and heads into the Washington game with a record of 118-18 record (87% winners in what is arguably the best football conference in the country. And yes it is amazing this team has won five of the last seven titles.
These comments are not a knock on the other three teams - all of which are loaded with blue-chip talent and capable of stinging Alabama in the playoffs - but a tribute to the man who has built the dynasty of dynasties. Until now I believed Bryant was the greatest football coach who ever lived and to replace him with Saban is akin to me as a 10-year old, confessing to my saintly pacifist Presbyterian mother, yes, I had been contaminating my body and soul by smoking those missing Camels out behind the barn. But in the world of Bryant vs. Saban emerges as the new best.
Current Odds To Win National Championship
Alabama Crimson Tide 3-1
Ohio State Buckeyes 3-1
Clemson Tigers 6-1
Washington Huskies 15-1
Maybe A Money Line Bet? If you like one of the underdogs in the BCS semifinals, you might consider betting the money line.
- In the Ohio State-Clemson game...Favored Ohio State is -155 while underdog Clemson is +130
- In the Alabama-Washington game...Favored Alabama is -600 while underdog Washington is +500
In handicapping these games keep in mind Alabama and Clemson met in the national championship game last year and the Crimson Tide, a 6.5 favorite, won by four, 45-40.
College Basketball Bettors Can Gain Better Footing In This Topsy-Turvy Universe By Beginning With Reliable RPI and SOS Ratings
College basketball bettors living in the past are getting buried this season because they seem unaware past national powers such as Georgetown, St. John's, Connecticut, DePaul, and UNLV - just to name five - are in a major state of decline and won't rejoin the living anytime soon. Meantime emerging teams such as Southern California, Middle Tennessee, Chattanooga, Northern Kentucky and the all-alphabet team, IUPU, are on the verge of becoming major players.
Those not looking at the entire group of the more than 350 teams on which we bet are missing much of the changes and in the process blowing opportunities to win. Change in college basketball seem to be difficult to accept and there is no better example than that of Wichita State.
The Shockers have gone 239-87 under coach Gregg Marshall, who is one of the highest paid college basketball coaches in the country. In the last seven years, Marshall has led the team to three 30-plus wins season and four 25-plus wins season. In the process Wichita State has won the NIT, gone to seven straight NCAA Tournaments including one Final Four. The Shockers also have the highest percentage of road wins over the past five seasons than any other basketball team.
Yet, the team is still referred to as a "mid-major, rendering that term meaningless.
Maybe it takes forever and three days for a team to move up to the memory board of basketball bettors. Meantime, those focusing on the past in which they live are getting their brains kicked in.
Pay attention to what is happening and the best way to get up to date is to being with the RPI and ratings that rank teams to their overall ability and while doing that note a team's strength. A 4-4 team with a Top 25 strength of schedule rating is better than a 9-1 team with a 285th SOS rank.
For instance Villanova (12-0) has the #1 RPI rating with an SOS ranked 23rd. Twenty-first ranked UCLA (13-1) has an SOS rating of 193. It simply helps to know the quality of the opposition a team has faced. The ratings also expose bad teams as is illustrated by 334th-ranked Oregon State (3-10) which has an SOS ranking of 297.
Figures are certainly a guide to what teams we should bet and what teams we can win a bet by wagering against them.
There are so many variables added to handicapping the NFL on the final week of its season many call it one of the sports worlds biggest crap shoots. In essence that point of view may be correct but not absolute and I intend to prove that Sunday when I go for my 5th straight 100-unit winner in the month of December. You can win this game with me for just $50, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal, I promise you do not want to miss it. Enough said, please look at my record below and I will let that 4-0 mark do the rest of my talking
4-4 In 100-Unit NFL Winners This Month
12/24...100 Units...Raiders (-3.5) 33, Colts 25 (Won)
12/18...100 Units...Raiders (-2.5) 19, Chargers 16 (Won)
12/11...100 Units...Redskins (-2) 27, Eagles 22 (Won)
12/5...100 Units...Packers (-6.5) 21, Texans 13 (Won)
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