September 21-23, 2017
Volume 19, Edition 2… September 22-23, 2017
Alabama, Clemson, Penn State, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma 1-2-3-4-5 In My Top 20 But All The Rest Have Much To Prove
Kansas City Chiefs Just Might Be Best NFL Team While Jets Working At Being The Worst
Giants QB Eli Manning Says Giants Offense Doomed Because Of An Offensive Line That Can't Block
NFL Totals Bettors Need To Pay Attention As The Day Of High-Powered Offenses Appears In Decline
Perfect 4-0 In College And NFL Games Of The Week And Go For Two More 50-Unit Scores This Weekend
By Kelso Sturgeon
Oh, the lessons we learned in college and NFL football this past week. It is obvious in the NFL the New York Jets (0-2) cannot win with retread quarterback Josh McCown and are even hampered more with a defense that cannot stop the rush. Ditto for the San Francisco 49ers (0-2) who are trying to do it with an offense run by journeyman Brian Hoyer that is scoring an average of 6.0 points per game and has not put the ball in the end zone this season.
It's also hard to overlook the once-feared Seattle Seahawks (1-1) are averaging 10.5 points per game and have scored by one TD in their first two games. Faring just as poorly on offense is Cincinnati (0-2). The Bengals have looked lost in their first two games, are averaging 4.5 points per game, and are yet to score a TD. It also is fair to suggest Dallas Cowboy running back Ezekiel Elliott is a narcissist who does not care one bit about his team or its teammates after he quit on them in a 42-17 loss at Denver.
Elliott stood the NFL on its head last season when as a rookie he rushed for a league-leading 1,631 and 15 touchdowns. Against the Broncos he rushed for 8 yards on nine carries and ran the wrong pattern on a pass play, giving Denver an interception. Maybe that pending six-day suspension for allegedly slapping around a former girlfriend is weighing too heavily on him?
It also is of note New York Giants veteran quarterback Eli Manning s said rather bluntly life is going to be treacherous playing behind an offensive line that for reasons unknown has lost its way. In the Giants first two games this season - both lackluster losses - Manning has been sacked eight times and at the current pace is on track for it to happen 64 times this season.
The mystery is why. He is playing behind the same offensive line he did last year and it gave up but 21 times the entire season in 2016 - his lowest number in 13 years under center.
NFL Teams On Historically Low Pace In Scoring Touchdowns
Those legions who bet NFL totals need to start paying attention to scoring. Two weeks into the season have scored 132 touchdowns or 213 per team per game. This means teams are currently averaging 20.1 points per game as opposed to 22.6 last season. It also must be noted in almost all the higher scoring games, the scoring has been done by just one of the teams and in 14-of-32 games thus far teams have won by 14 or more points.
It's too early to declare this the year of NFL defense but it is something totals bettors need to begin to chart.
Coaches Just Have To Find Someone To Blame
When a college team is not performing well, the head coach as license to blame somebody - usually an assistant coach - and easily finds his scapegoat. At East Carolina, where head coach Scottie Montgomery is in the process of destroying a once-proud program, he knew the seldom-ready-to-play Pirates were giving up too many points. After giving up 34 points in a loss to James Madison and 56 to West Virginia, he fired defensive coordinator Kenwick Thompson and replaced him with associate head coach Robert Prunty.
It must have worked, in their first game under Prunty, East Carolina gave up a season-high 64 points to Virginia Tech. Montgomery went 3-9 in his first season in Greenville and is on his way to another. And to think the powers to be at ECU fired the very competent Ruffin McNeil to bring this guy in. McNeil landed on his feet and is currently the defensive line coach at unbeaten Oklahoma.
In other college news, there is not the slightest doubt in my mind Missouri (1-2) is the worst team in the SEC. The Tigers opened with a 72-43 win over I-AA Missouri State but in their last two games were buried by South Carolina, 31-13, and underdog Purdue 35.3...Speaking of the SEC, always noisy LSU coach Ed Orgeron saw his Tigers crushed at underdog Mississippi State, 37-7, and you can take it to the bank the citizens in the bayou will be begging for Les Miles to return...On the upside in that conference Vanderbilt has surfaced as a real threat to any opponent.
In the Big Ten, Nebraska's Mike Riley is now on the hot seat after back-to-back losses, first at Oregon, 42-35, and at home last week to Northern Illinois, 21-17, as a 10.5-point favorite. The Cornhuskers look disorganized and tentative to me. . .Two biggest conference games on the Saturday schedule find TCU at Oklahoma State in a Big 12 battle of 3-0 teams and, a bit further west, Washington (3-0) is at Colorado (3-0) in a PAC-12 contest.
South Carolina Injury Most Costly Of All
In putting together this week's college injury report it is apparent the South Carolina Gamecocks got hit hardest of all. They lost superstar wide-receiver Deebo Samuel when he broke an ankle in Saturday's 23-13 upset home loss to Kentucky. The impact will be felt immediately. Samuel, a junior, got hurt late in the third quarter after but still finished the game with five catches for 122 yards and a touchdown scored on a 68-yard pass play on the first play of the game.
In his first two games, Samuel had returned two kickoffs for touchdowns, had 10 receptions for 128 yards for two touchdowns and had rushed for another in wins over N.C. State and Missouri. Teams such as South Carolina cannot afford to lose game-breaking players of his caliber. Listed below are other injuries to key people.
Weekend College Injury Report
Every Player Listed Here Is A Starter And It Is Always Possible Their Status Could Change
Boise State - QB Brett Rypien (Concussion) is upgraded to probable Friday vs. Virginia
Appalachian St - RB Jalin Moore (Foot) injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. Wake Forest
Massachusetts - TE Adam Breneman (Ankle) injured last game, "?" Friday vs. Tennessee
Kent State - QB Nick Holley (Knee) is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Louisville
Old Dominion - RB Ray Lawry (Hamstring) out indefinitely
Nebraska - RB Tre Bryant (Knee) "?" Saturday vs. Rutgers
Miami Florida - WR Ahmmon Richards (Hamstring) missed last game, probable Saturday vs. Toledo
New Mexico - QB Lamar Jordan (Head) is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Tulsa
LSU - RB Derrius Guice (Knee) is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Syracuse
Middle Tenn St - QB Brent Stockstill (Shoulder) "?" Saturday vs. Bowling Green. WR Richie James (Ankle) injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. Bowling Green
Tulane - QB Jonathan Banks (Ribs) "?" Saturday vs. Army
TCU - RB Kyle Hicks (Undisclosed) injured last game, doubtful Saturday vs. Oklahoma State
Ball State - RB James Gilbert (Knee) injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. Western Kentucky
North Texas - QB Mason Fine (Knee) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. UAB
Rice - QB Sam Glaesmann (Shoulder) is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Florida Intl
South Alabama - QB Cole Garvin (Ankle) is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Idaho
UL Lafayette - QB Jordan Davis (Knee) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. UL Monroe
Baylor - QB Zach Smith (None) expected to start Saturday vs. Oklahoma
Nevada - RB Jaxson Kincaide (Head) injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. Washington State
Utah State - QB Kent Myers (Head) injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. San
Current Weekend NFL Injury Report
Every Player Listed Here Is A Starter And It Is Always Possible Their Status Could Change
Indianapolis - QB Andrew Luck (Shoulder) out indefinitely
New England - TE Rob Gronkowski (Groin) "?" Sunday vs. Houston
Minnesota - QB Sam Bradford (Knee) "?" Sunday vs. Tampa Bay
Green Bay - WR Jordy Nelson (Quad) left last game, "?" Sunday vs. Cincinnati
FOOTBALL BEST BETS
(These Selections Were Made A Few Days In Advance And Kelso Sturgeon Reserves The Right To Change Them For His Telephone Services I Any Later Situation Occurs)
College Best Bets Saturday, Sept. 23
MARYLAND TERRAPINS (2-0) -3.5 by 9-10 over Central Florida Knights (1-0) - The situation under which this game is being played tilts the game heavily in Maryland's favor and the figures say they should rather easily cover the number. UCF opened the season August 31 with a 61-17 win over a bad Florida International team and has not played since them, with games against Memphis and Georgia Tech being postponed because of Hurricane Irma. Yes, the Knights will be fresh but one has to wonder just how sharp they will be coming off the long layoff. Maryland opened is season at Texas and as a 19-point underdog pistol-whipped the Longhorns, 51-41, and followed that up with a 63-17 blowout win over I-AA power Towson, 63-17. They were off last week and have practiced in a manner that suggests they intend to keep right on rolling.
TCU Horned Frogs (3-0) +13.5 over OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (3-0) - My position in this Big 12 showdown is that OSU is the superior team talentwise and should prevail in a hard-fought battle with a TCU team that is loaded on both sides of the ball and has buried Jackson State, 63-0, Arkansas in Fayetteville, 28-7, and SMU 56-36 last week. The two biggest edges the Cowboys have are a strong home field bias and the best quarterback in the country in Mason Rudolph who is an offensive weapon beyond words - a game breaker that simply can't be stopped. In beating Tulsa 59-24 and then winning at South Alabama 44-7 and at Pittsburgh 59-21, Rudolph has completed 72.3% of his passes, including 11 touchdowns, with one interception. In a show that made him the leading candidate to win the Heisman Trophy, against Pittsburgh Rudolph led an offense that had 516 yards and a 49-14 lead at the intermission. But even with Rudolph leading the way, TCU is also loaded with talent, has its own blue-chip QB in Kenny Hill and is averaging 49 points per game. This is a conference game and neither team is expected to give an inch. The Cowboys should get the win but my figures say the cover will belong to the Frogs.
VANDERBILT COMMODORES (3-0) +18.5 over Alabama Crimson Tide (3-0) - Believe me, I am not just taking a shot with underdog Vanderbilt in this game. The Commodores have a superstar QB in junior Kyle Shurmur and a lockdown defense that in its first three games has given up an average of 4.3 points per game, with the wins coming at Middle Tennessee 28-6, at home against Alabama A&M 42-0 and at home again last week with an impressive and quite powerful 14-7 win over nationally-ranked Kansas State. I happened to watch every minute of the Kansas State game and came away understanding this is one of the best teams Vanderbilt has put on the field in modern history. Yes, Alabama should grind out the win but I do not think it will come easily. The 18.5 points we are getting in this game makes it the bargain of the day.
NFL Best Bets Sunday, Sept. 24
Baltimore Ravens (2-0) -3.5 by 12-13 over Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) - You will have to get up early to watch this game since it will be played several time zones away in London's Wembley Stadium and will kick off at 9:30 a.m. Eastern. For openers the betting line in this game is according to my figures off by at least 4 points and my opening number was Baltimore -7.5. Just call this a dramatic difference of opinion between myself and the bookmakers of the world and I am betting I am right. Baltimore opened the season as a 2.5 underdog at Cincinnati and won, 20-0. The Ravens came right back last week and got the best of the Cleveland Browns, 24-10, this time as a 7.5 point choice. Do the math. The numbers mean Baltimore is giving up a stunning 5.0 points per game. With all due respect Jacksonville snuck up on an ill-prepared Houston team in its opener and won 29-7 as a 6-point underdog and returned home last week to get buried by Tennessee 37-16. The Ravens have much better talent, a much better QB, a lockdown defense and should dominate the Jaguars in this one.
Miami Dolphins (1-0) -6 by 13-14 over NEW YORK JETS (0-2) - The Dolphins finally got into action last week with a 19-17 win at the Los Angeles Chargers, having missed their opening-week game against Tampa Bay because it was postponed by Hurricane Irma. For the record, this is as much a play against the Jets as it is on the Dolphins. I am not yet ready to join the legions who have declared the Jets the worst team in the NFL, although they might be just that. The are going nowhere with journeyman Josh McCown in charge. After two games - losses at Buffalo, 21-12, and at Oakland, 20-45 - New York is giving up 33 points per game while scoring by 16.0. Miami has the makings of a decent team and show a ton of poise and grit in winning at the Chargers last week. It is said teams improve the most between the first and second games of the season and that certainly does not bode well for the Jets.
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) -3 by 12-13 over LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (0-2) - It is a bit too early in the season to make bold statements and predictions but my figures and personal observation suggest to me the Kansas City Chiefs may well be the best team in the NFL. The stunned the football world but not me (I had KC plus that night) when they opened the season at New England and as 8-point underdogs completely outplayed and outclassed the Patriots with a 42-27 win and followed that up with a solid 27-20 victory over the well-regarded Philadelphia Eagles. KC went 12-5 last season and lost to the Pittsburgh Steelers 18-16 in the playoffs. The season before the Chiefs went 12-6 and beat Houston 30-0 in the playoffs before losing to New England 27-20. In other words, Kansas City is no Johnny-Come-Lately and it is obvious to me coach Andy Reid has his team primed to go the distance this season. They are just to talented on offense for the Chargers to keep up and I do expect them to breeze in this game.
THE WEEKEND BETTING MENU
There are two outstanding college football games tonight - both of national TV - and I am extremely confident I will win both of them. In the first game under-rated Virginia (2-1) is at over-rated Boise State (2-1) and the second matches Utah (3-0) against Arizona (2-1) in a real bad-blood battle in Tucson. Boise State owns wins over Troy, 24-13, and New Mexico, 28-14, with the only blemish on its record a three-overtime loss at Washington State, 47-44. As for Virginia, the Cavaliers, who lost to Boise State, 56-14, in Charlottesville two seasons ago, have beaten I-AA William & Mary, 28-10, and Connecticut, 38-18, while losing at home to Indiana, 34-17. Boise State 104-6 at home since 2000 and deserves to be the favorite. The Broncos are -11.5 favorites but Virginia coach Bronco Mendenhall, formerly head coach at BYU, has played on the blue carpet several times and will have his team ready.
In the second game, undefeated Utah heads into Tucson with a long memory and a chip on its shoulder. The Utes are used to getting the business when they play at Arizona and they most certainly will leave little to chance in this one. Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez is on the hot seat after last year's stunning 3-9 season and is working overtime to win.
The circumstances should make this PAC-12 showdown quite a game. Even though Utah is a 3-point favorite, this one grades out as a dead-even affair. I will be releasing one of the teams as a 25-unit play, the second one at 15 units. As noted I have done my homework and believe I have the winners in both these games and you can get the cash with me for just $25, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal. For the record, Arizona has beaten I-AA Northern Arizona, 62-24, and Texas-El Paso, 63-16, while losing to Houston, 19-16. Utah has beaten I-AA North Dakota, 37-16, BYU, 19-13, and San Jose State, 54-16.
The Friday Night Schedule
Virginia Cavaliers (2-1) at Boise State Broncos On ESPN2...Kickoff 8:00 Eastern
Utah Utes (3-0) at Arizona Wildcats (2-1) On Fox Sports 1...Kickoff 10:30 Eastern
Going For 3rd Straight 50-Unit College Game Of Week On Saturday
I Won My First Two 50-Unit College Football Games Of The Week By An Average Of 41.5 Points, And Predict Another Blowout Today
My peers long ago accepted the fact I have few equals in picking college football blowout winners and I done just that twice already this season by winning both my 50-unit College Football Games of the Week by an average of 41.5 points. The King is set to strike again today with another 50-unit College Game of the Week and I am certain it will win by 35-40 points. As you can see by the results below, I opened the season with a 50-unit 36-point win over East Carolina and last week go the cash with a 50-unit bet on Virginia Tech which crushed those same ECU Pirates by 47 points.
Winning these games is all about finding a power team facing a much weaker team that one knows does not have the talent to keep up with a talented high-powered offense led by blue chip plays and game-breakers. That is the simple key to winning the first two games.
There is another game on today's schedule that has just such a matchup and, like Virginia Tech and west Virginia, and the win and cover should come just as easily. Win my 50-unit College Game of the Week today for just $50, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal. Better yet, join my Personal Best Football Club for highrollers and save a fortune. Details on this website and toll free at the office, 1-800-755-2255.
The only thing I ask of you is not to share these games with anyone. A lot of people obviously did that last week as evidenced by the line move. When I released Virginia Tech the Hokies were -21.5 and were bet out to -27. Silence, please. And a reminder I am 2-0 with my 50-unit NFL Games of the Week and go for another one Sunday.
2-0 In 50-Unit Game Of Week Winners
9/16...Virginia Tech (-27) 64, East Carolina 17 (Won)
9/9...West Virginia (-27) 56, East Carolina 20 (Won)
Bookmakers Still Sleeping On The Job And Opening Door For Underdog College Football Winners
Went 3-0 With Dogs Last Saturday And Will Do it Again
Bookmakers cringe at the thought that anyone thinks they might be making soft betting lines and one some games making the logical winners the underdog. With due respect, the guys on the other side of the counter begin each football season with preconceived notions about just how good, or bad, teams will be. There habit is to do as most bettors do - handicap teams as they were last year, or even the year before - failing to realize in both the colleges and the NFL teams change from season to season. Some get better, some get worse.
I took advantage of this situation last Saturday and released three underdogs that all had a solid chance to win straight up. Purdue won outright in a blowout, Tennessee covered at Florida, losing on a Hail Mary pass with no time on the clock, and Tulsa got the cash while losing by three at Toledo. (see the results below. As noted all three underdogs could just as easily have won.
Today's college football schedule also offers 10-11 underdogs that could easily win straight up and I am releasing all three as Best Bets Football Club plays and you can again win all three for just $15, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal. Better yet, sign up for the entire Best Bets Club NFL and college seasons for just $199 and receive 6-7 best bets each week.
3-0 With College Underdogs Last Saturday
Tennessee (+6.5) 20, Florida 26 (Won)
Purdue (+4.5) 35, Missouri 3 (Won)
Tulsa (+7) 51, Toledo 54 (Won)
It's Unbeaten USC (3-0) At Unbeaten California (3-0) And The Annual UCLA (2-1) At Standard (1-2) Grudge Match In Sensational September TV Parlay
It's rivalry Saturday in California football as the Southern California Trojans (3-0) visit the California Golden Bears (3-0) UCLA (2-1) hits Palo Alto to take the Stanford Cardinal (1-2) in one of college football's true grudge matches. Everyone expected USC to be undefeated a this point but California is a complete surprise at 3-0. UCLA and Stanford began the season with high hopes but neither has done much to impress anybody. Regardless the teams in each of these rivalry games always fire their best shots and come ready to win, putting their "A" games on display.
USC arrives at California off a hard-fought 27-24 home win over Texas while the Golden Bears knocked off Ole Miss, 27-16, in their last game. UCLA, famous this season for having no defense (gives up an average of 38.3 points and 515.3) arrives at Stanford off a 48-45 loss at Memphis while the Cardinal lost at San Diego State 20-17 this past Saturday.
I have found the edges to win both these games and will be releasing them in a 40-unit Sensational September parlay, wagering 15 units on each winner and 10 units on the parlay. You can get the cash with these two nationally televised games for just $25, charged to your major credit card or Pay Pal.
Important Note: The Complete NFL Betting Menu Will Be Revealed A Bit Later Here Online