September 28 - October 2
Volume 19, Edition 3… September 28-October 2, 2017
Always Offering Weekly Insight And Enlightenment To Help Readers Win College And NFL Football Bets
By Kelso Sturgeon
Lessons learned from last week's college and NFL games were many but at this point of the season one must be quite cautious about understanding them. For instance are the Baltimore Ravens a suddenly below average NFL team after losing in London to the Jacksonville Jaguars 44-7 in London? What about those supposedly Super Bowl-bounce Pittsburgh Steelers who lost in Chicago to the Bears in overtime, 23-17? Are the Seattle Seahawks (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) already toast?
In college football, is TCU as good as it looked in burying previously undefeated Oklahoma State, 44-31, in Stillwater as a 9.5 underdog. Coming off 59-0 win in Nashville over the best team Vanderbilt has put on the field, Alabama appears to stand head-and-shoulders above all the rest in college football - and, yes, I am including defending national champion Clemson among the latter. On the plus side, South Florida, which started the season unimpressively despite being billed as a Top Ten team, has awakened and is currently one of the most dangerous teams in the game.
Back to the NFL it is my opinion the two best teams are the Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) and the Atlanta Falcons (3-0), and it will be no surprise to see them meet in the Super Bowl. The current odds on KC to do that are 16-1 while Atlanta, which lost to New England in last season's big game, is 12-1. New England, which was crushed at home by Kansas City 42-27 in Week #1, remains the 4-1 favorite to win the Super Bowl while Green Bay and Oakland check in at 7-1 and the Dallas Cowboys at 8-1.
In the world of Major League Baseball, my money is going to be on the Cleveland Indians (30-3 in their last 33 games) to win the World Series. The playoffs begin this coming Tuesday and you can expect to get complete betting coverage from me. I have had an excellent season and there is no reason to believe it won't continue in the post season. Click here for my MLB Playoff picks
And in the world of college basketball, the current scandal of buying players etc. is only going to get bigger but, as shocking as it might sound, those involved have broken no laws and the FBI is going to be quite embarrassed when its cases are thrown out of court. What all these individuals have done is despicable, disgusting and grossly unethical but there is no one law on the books that says they committed crimes. As always, the overbearing NCAA sleeps.
How To Use The Bounce-Back Theory To Win
I believe in the bounce-back theory and have used it for years to win bet after bet in college football - and occasionally in the NFL - and here is what a team must do to qualify for a bounce-back performance in its next game.
- The team must first have the ability to bounce back.
- The team must have been at least a touchdown favorite (better yet, a 2-TD choice) in losing its last game.
- The loss must come in a game played just one week ago. (Two weeks off, no)
Here are examples of teams that qualify for play and should bounce back this week off a loss last week:
- Oklahoma State lost to TCU at home 44-31 last week as a 9.5-point favorite and is at Texas Tech this week.
- Oregon lost at home to Arizona State 37-35 as a 14.5-point favorite and hosts California Saturday.
- Florida State lost at N.C. State 27-21 as an 11-point favorite at N.C. State and is at Wake Forest Saturday.
Weekend College Injury Report
Every Player Listed Here Is A Starter And It Is Always Possible Their Status Could Change
Miami Florida - WR Ahmmon Richards (Hamstring) is upgraded to probable Friday vs. Duke
USC - RB Ronald Jones (Thigh) is upgraded to probable Friday vs. Washington State
Nebraska - RB Tre Bryant (Knee) is downgraded to expected to miss Friday vs. Illinois
Rice - QB Sam Glaesmann (Shoulder) "?" Saturday vs. Pittsburgh U
Ball State - RB James Gilbert (Hand) is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Western Michigan. Ball State - QB Riley Neal (Leg) is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Western Michigan
Boston College - QB Anthony Brown (Undisclosed) left last game, "?" Saturday vs. Central Michigan
Massachusetts - QB Andrew Ford (Head) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Ohio. TE Adam Breneman (Ankle) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Ohio
Buffalo U - QB Tyree Jackson (Knee) injured last game, doubtful Saturday vs. Kent State
Maryland - QB Kasim Hill (ACL) out for season.
Minnesota U - RB Rodney Smith (Head) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Maryland
LSU - RB Derrius Guice (Knee) left last game, is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Troy
Oregon State - QB Jake Luton (Back) out indefinitely. QB Darell Garretson (None) expected to start Saturday vs. Washington U
Florida - QB Luke Del Rio (None) expected to start Saturday vs. Vanderbilt
South Alabama - QB Cole Garvin (Ankle) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Louisiana Tech
Middle Tenn St - QB Brent Stockstill (Shoulder) is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Florida Atlantic. QB John Urzua (None) expected to start Saturday vs. Florida Atlantic
Auburn - RB Kamryn Pettway (Ankle) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Mississippi St
New Mexico - QB Lamar Jordan (Concussion) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Air Force
Mississippi - WR A.J. Brown (Knee) "?" Saturday vs. Alabama
Stanford - QB Keller Chryst (Concussion) injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. Arizona State
Nevada - RB Jaxson Kincaide (Concussion) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Fresno State
Louisville - WR Jaylen Smith (Wrist) out indefinitely
FOOTBALL BEST BETS
(These Selections Were Made A Few Days In Advance And I Reserve The Right To Change Them For My Services Should the Situation Change)
College Best Bets Saturday, Sept. 30
15 Units: ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS (2-2) -14 by 35 over Texas-El Paso Miners (0-4) - UTEP is being outscored by an average of 35 points per game and simply does no have the weapons to slow down an efficient offense that that just grinds it out as it controls the game. Of note is the fact Army averages 42.5 points per game at home while giving up 11.5. As for the Miners they are averaging 10.5 points on the road while surrendering 48.5.
10 Units: GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS (2-1) -9.5 by 14 over North Carolina Tar Heels (1-3) - I is accurate to say this is a bad North Carolina team but that aside, the winner emerges in the numbers. Georgia Tech has one of the best rushing offenses (the triple option) in the country, averaging an NCAA best 393.7 yards on the ground. On the other side of the ball, the Yellow Jackets have the 14th best overall defense in the land, giving up just 264.3 yards per game.
10 Units: LSU TIGERS (3-1) -21 by 13 over Troy Trojans (3-1) - Yes, you read that correctly. I am taking underdog Troy in this one and I do realize I am bucking a trend here that has seen LSU win 49 straight games against non-conference opponents and stands 35-0 overall against teams from the Sun Belt Conference. And, yes, it is homecoming in Baton Rouge and LSU is 16-0 in its last homecoming games. Thus, why Troy to at least get the cover? It's simple - the Trojans have a talented team that comes to each game on the razor's edge and frankly LSU has done little to impress me this season. This could also be a look-ahead spot for LSU which is at Florida next week.
NFL Best Bets Sunday, Oct. 1
15 Units: Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1) -3 by 7 over BALTIMORE RAVENS (2-1) - Both these teams are in major bounce back form after last week's unexpected losses. The Ravens are coming off their worst defeat in history, a 44-7 blowout at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars in London while the Steelers were upset at Chicago 23-17. That said, the Steelers have the better talent and possess a running game that can control the pace of the game. Yes I am aware the Ravens have beaten the Steelers four straight in Baltimore and stand 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.
10 Units: Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) at NEW YORK JETS (1-2) over 38 points - Jacksonville put 44 points on the board last week against the Baltimore Ravens and now stand over 23-12 in their last 35 games. The Jaguars offense is much better than advertised and with the boost in confidence it got last week, should continue putting points on the board. For the record this is the first time since 2011 Jacksonville has been a road favorite.
THE WEEKEND BETTING MENU
USC At Washington State Tops 2-0 Friday
#5 Southern Cal (4-0) Lays Its Reputation On The Line At #16 Washington State (4-0) In Pac-12 Showdown Game That Highlights 2-0 TV Night
Let’s take a shortcut to the truth - every football pundits is absolutely certain the Southern California Trojans are one of the best teams in college football. As for Washington State they do not have a clue. The teams that meet on ESPN Friday night in Pullman do have one thing in common—both are an undefeated 4-0. The history of this series has been one-sided with USC standing 58-9-4 in 71 games played since 1921. USC is shooting for its 14th straight win over all, stands 35-5 in its last 40 games with Washington State and has only lost three times in Pullman. Can Washington State’s high-powered offense finally get it done.
USC certainly has been tested, beating Western Michigan (2-2), Stanford (2-2), Texas (1-2) and California (3-1) - all very good teams. The young Washington State team (16 freshmen, including six true freshmen) have played this season as the Cougars whipped I-AA power Montana (2-2), Boise State (2-2), Oregon State (1-3) and Nevada (0-4) but USC will be the first team of substance they have faced this season. Can they pull off the upset as 3.5-point underdogs with one of the most power offenses in the land?
It all remains to be seen as two of the best quarterbacks in the country face off but I do believe I have figured out where this one will fall and am releasing it as a 15-unit play. Win this one with, plus a second nationally televised Best Bets Football Club game, for just $15. Better yet, get on board for the entire college and NFL seasons and receive 6-7 best bets each week for just $199.
The Friday Night Schedule - All Games On National TV
Miami Hurricanes (2-0) at Duke Blue Devils (4-0)
Nebraska Cornhuskers (2-2) at Illinois Fighting Illini (1-2)
BYU Cougars (0-4) at Utah State Aggies (2-2)
Southern California Trojans (4-0) at Washington State Cougars (4-0)
#2 Clemson At #12 Virginia Tech Highlights 4-0 Saturday
Revenge Will Be The Name Of The Game Tonight When Unbeaten Defending National Champion Clemson (4-0) Clashes With The Hokies (4-0)
Just in case you forgot Clemson and Virginia Tech met in the ACC championship playoff game last season and the former prevailed 42-35 on the strength of a 4th quarter interception as the latter was driving for the tying TD. For Virginia Tech it was an unforgettable moment and it most certainly has to be on the Hokies minds tonight as they take the field against the visiting Tigers in a night game that will be televised nationally on ABC. Clemson, an 11-point favorite in the 2016 playoff game, is a 7-point favorite tonight and probably should be on the strength of one victory alone this season - a 47-21 blowout win at nationally-ranked Louisville. But, as noted, there is much more to this game than the pointspread.
Whether Virginia Tech can extract revenge against a team that is 32-2 over the past two-plus seasons remains to be seen. For the record, the game figures to be a defensive affair. Clemson gives up an average of 227.0 yards and 9.2 points per game while the Hokies surrender 311.2 and 10.2 points per outing. I believe I have this one figured out and am making it my top Best Bets Football Club play of the day at 15 units. You can win this game, plus three additional 10-unit plays, for just $15. Better yet, get on board for the entire college and NFL seasons and receive 6-7 best bets each week for just $199.
42-Point Blowout Highlights Saturday's Triple Crown
Saturday's College Football Schedule Is Loaded With Teams That Have Giant Winning Edges And That Means It Is 7-0 Triple Crown Time
I found three teams on today's college football schedule that graded out with better than a 90% chance to win and cover and am taking advantage of the opportunity to win my Sensational September College Football Triple Crown. This is the perfect opportunity to go 7-0 and bury your bookmaker with seven knockout winners. The College Football Triple Crown gives one an opportunity to win seven bets without spending a fortune to do so. Here is how it works,
Win 25 unit straight bets on the three games.
Win three 2-team parlays at odds of 13-5
Win one 3-team parlay at odds of 6-1.
As noted the best bets will all be 25-unit plays and it will be your choice as to how much you want to bet on each parlay. You can take down the cash today for just $50, I can assure you that you do not want to miss this opportunity to break the bank. I am confident you can take down a fortune today.
Saturday's Game Of Week Team Grades Out 5-TD Winner
I Am 2-0-1 With My 50-Unit College Games Of Week And Am Going For Cash Today With Team That Should Win By At Least 5 Touchdowns
Today's college football schedule is by far the most attractive one this season for bettors and presents another golden opportunity to win another 50-unit College Football Game of the Week. My figures say the outcome of this one won't be in doubt 10 minutes into the first quarter. I will only be surprised if my team wins by less than five touchdowns.
For the record I should be a perfect 3-0 in these games this season but got a push with West Virginia last week when they had 1st-and-goal in the waning minutes but could not score. Regardless my games of the week have been winning by an average of 35 points. There is another game on today's schedule that has just such a one-sided matchup and the win and cover should come just as easily. Win my 50-unit College Game of the Week today for just $50. Better yet, join my Personal Best Football Club for highrollers and save a fortune. Details on this website and toll free at the office, 1-800-755-2255. The only thing I ask of you is not to share these games with anyone. A lot of people obviously did that last week as evidenced by the line moves on the first three games.
2-0-1 In 50-Unit Game Of Week Winners
9/23...West Virginia (-22) 56, Kansas 34 (Push)
9/16...Virginia Tech (-27) 64, East Carolina 17 (Won)
9/9...West Virginia (-27) 56, East Carolina 20 (Won)
100-Unit NFL Game Of The Month Stuns Bookies
Vegas Bookmakers Won A Fortune Last Week In NFL As Underdogs Prevailed by 12-4 Margin But It's Bettors Turn To Score Big Today
My Sensational September program is winding down and I intend to send it on its way today with a winning 100 unit play on my NFL Game of the Month with a modest favorite that has every single important edge. I have made the team I am releasing a 100-unit play because my figures and the circumstances under which the game is being played says it will win by at least 10 points above the number. The world's bookmakers made millions last week (some in Las Vegas said it was their second biggest winning Sunday ever) but I am confident the worm will turn on them today, especially with my 100-unit NFL Game of the Month. Win the big one with me today for just $50, or sign up for membership in my Personal Best Football Club for the season and save a fortune. Details on this website and toll free at 1-800-755-2255.
Raiders At Broncos Showdown Tops 3-0 Best Bets Sunday
Denver And Oakland Are In Bounce-Back Form As Both Come Off Stunning Losses And I Know The One Fact That Will Decide This Game
The Denver Broncos (2-1) were stunned 26-16 at the Buffalo Bills this past Sunday while the Oakland Raiders (2-1) lost that night at the Washington Redskins 27-10 while playing like a team of cadavers, as in no life on offense or defense. The losses by both these teams puts them in bounce-back mode and assures both will come looking for the money.
First the facts. While these teams are big-time AFC West rivals, Denver stands 8-2 straight up and 7-2-1 against the spread in their last 10 meetings. But complicating those numbers is the fact Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five home games while Oakland is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 road games. Digging deeply into the history and stats that regard this rivalry meeting, I have found 2-3 factors that tilt the game to the winner. Get the cash with me on this 15-unit play, plus win two additional 10-unit bets, for just $15. Better yet, get on board for the entire college and NFL Best Bets Football Club seasons and receive 6-7 best bets each week for just $199.
25-Unit NFL Underdog Takes Down Cash Sunday
My Chairman's Club Got The NFL Money Last Sunday With The Underdog New York Giants And Is Coming Right Back with Another Shocker Today
NFL underdogs ruled the day last Sunday with eight outright wins while covering in 12 of the 16 games played. Whether that trend continues today is open to question but I have found one game in which the underdog grades out with a 75% chance to win straight up. It does not get better than that in the NFL. Last week my Chairman's Football Club took down the money with a 25-unit play on the underdog New York Giants (+5) who covered in a 27-24 loss at Philadelphia. Today I am looking for the straight up win on this 25-unit play and am confident I will do just that. Win this Chairman's Football Club play with me for just $25..
Get Monday Night Cash On Redskins at Chiefs Clash
The Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) Will Be Out To Prove They Are One Of Top 2-3 Teams In NFL But Most Certainly Face Acid Test Against Washington (2-1)
It is obvious the Kansas City Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL and head into tonight's game at Arrowhead Stadium 3-0 straight up and against the spread, having won at New England 42-7, at home against Philadelphia 27-20 and last week at the Los Angeles Chargers 24-10. Those are interesting facts but prove little at this point of the season. The Washington Redskins (2-1) will obviously be a challenging opponent and made the world stand up and take notice last week when, as a 3.5-point underdog, they buried the very talented Oakland Raiders 27-10.
The facts, Washington is 15-7 against the spread in its last 22 regular season games, 8-2 in its last 10 as a road underdog while Kansas City is 4-8 in its last 12 home games as a favorite. The challenge is there but I believe I still have the winner and will be releasing this game as a 25-unit play and you can win it with me for just $25, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal.