Football Forecast October 7-9
Volume 19, Edition 4… October 7-9, 2017
College Games Of Week Winning By 33 Points...Another Blowout Saturday
100-Unit OctoberFest PAC-12 Game Of Year Crushes Bookies
Stunning OctoberFest Blowout Highlights Sunday's NFL Triple Crown
5-1 Last Sunday And Another 50-Unit NFL Game Of Week Wins
By Kelso Sturgeon
The good news continues. After going 5-1 in the NFL last Sunday, including 50-unit and 100-unit wins, opening this week with a 50-unit winner Wednesday with Arkansas State and kicking off my traditional OctoberFest program Thursday night with a winning 40-unit side/total parlay on underdog N.C. State and the "under" against Louisville, the stage is set for a solid weekend of winning.
Highlight of the weekend will be my OctoberFest 100-unit PAC-12 Game of the Year. I guarantee you will be surprised at the team I am releasing in this spot but it does have a 90% chance to win and cover. Another best bet would be to sign up for my OctoberFest program and 28 premium plays during the month for just $125. You can sign up here online, or toll free at my office - 1-800-755-2255. All major credit cards and Pay Pal accepted.
Now to the business at hand...
--Please review the new power ratings on my website because they have been completely revised and the changes are many.
--Wake up to the fact several NFL teams are not performing as advertised. For instance the fact the New England Patriots remain the favorite to win the Super Bowl is a joke.
--Tennessee's 41-0 home loss to Georgia last Saturday means head coach Butch Jones will be fired before the season is over. Losing in Knoxville is simply unacceptable and the thought the Volunteers might lose to arch-rival Vanderbilt looms large. The loss was Tennessee's 27th straight to a Top 10 team. Only Wake Forest (56) and Indiana (35) have longer losing streaks against Top 10 teams.
--South Florida (4-0) and Central Florida (3-0) just might be the two best teams in the Sunshine State. Sorry to say that and do not mean to offend noted national powers Florida, Miami and Florida State.
--I predicted in this newsletter last week Troy would get it done against an LSU team that has turned into a shipwreck under coach Ed Orgeron - and it is only going to get worse. By the way, Troy's 24-20 win over the Tigers in Baton Rouge, snapped an LSU 50-game winning streak at home against non-conference teams. The Trojans win and a payday of $985,000 for being a 21.5-point homecoming underdog had all the folks in Troy, Alabama, celebrating.
--Baylor may be 0-5 but the Bears are far better than that - something they showed last week in a 33-20 loss at Kansas State and the week before that in a 49-41 home loss to Oklahoma. Do not be afraid to take them as an underdog.
--BYU (1-4) has fallen off the edge of the world and the blame lies directly at the feet of second-year coach Kalani Sitake. The man simply can't do it and you can bet the BYU brass are already looking for another Mormon (thus far a requirement) to take his place. BYU's only win this season came in its opening game when it slipped by I-AA Portland State, 20-6, as a 37.5-point favorite.
Betting Trends For Key College Games
Straight Up Record, Against The Spread Record In Parenthesis
Penn State (5-0, 4-1-0) at Northwestern (2-2, 2-2-0)
Northwestern coach Pat Fitzgerald is 3-0 ATS against Penn State teams coached by James Franklin. The Nittany Lions are 0-4 as a road favorite in their last four away games
Virginia Tech (4-1, 3-2-0) at Boston College (2-3, 2-3-0
Boston College is 2-11 ATs in its last 11 home games and 0-7 in its last seven. Virginia Tech is 7-2 ATs in its last nine games.
Michigan State (3-1, 3-1-0) at Michigan (4-0, 2-2-0)
Michigan State has covered the number in the last nine games (9-0-1 last 10) against Michigan. The Spartans are 14-4 ATS in their last 14 as an underdog.
West Virginia (3-1, 1-3-0) at TCU (4-0, 2-2-0)
West Virginia has covered three of last four against TCU but both have negative current ATS numbers. WVU is 1-6 overall in it last seven games while TCU is 1-7 ATS in its last eight games as a home favorite.
LSU (3-2, 1-4) at Florida (3-1, 1-3)
LSU us 4-1 ATs in his last five road games, Florida is 8-12-1 in its last 21 board games.
SMU (4-1, 5-0-0) at Houston (3-1, 2-2-0)
Houston is 0-5-1 in its last six games as a home favorite while SMU is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as a road 'dog and stands 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games.
Kansas State (3-1, 2-2-0) at Texas (2-2, 3-1-0)
Kansas State is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games and is 33-17 as an underdog since Bill Snyder returned as coach in 2009.
Alabama (5-0, 3-2-0) at Texas A&M (4-1, 2-2-1)
Alabama has covered in last three against Texas A&M and is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games as a road favorite. The Aggies 6-17-1 in its last 24 home games and 2-6 in its last eight as an underdog.
Weekend College Injury Report
Every Player Listed Here Is A Starter And It Is Always Possible Their Status Could Change
BYU - QB Beau Hoge (Concussion) is downgraded to expected to miss Friday vs. Boise State. BYU - 2nd QB Beau Hoge (Head) injured last game, "?" Friday vs. Boise State.
Illinois - QB Jeff George Jr. (None) expected to start Saturday vs. Iowa.
Notre Dame - QB Brandon Wimbush (Foot) "?" Saturday vs. North Carolina.
Buffalo U - QB Tyree Jackson (Knee) doubtful Saturday vs. Western Michigan.
Ball State - RB James Gilbert (Hand) is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Akron. Ball State - QB Riley Neal (Leg) out indefinitely.
Purdue - QB David Blough (Shoulder) injured last game, is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Minnesota U.
Michigan - QB Wilton Speight (Back) out indefinitely. QB John O'Korn (None) expected to start Saturday vs. Michigan State.
UTEP - QB Ryan Metz (Shoulder) injured last game, doubtful Saturday vs. Western Kentucky.
Utah - QB Tyler Huntley (Arm) injured last game, doubtful Saturday vs. Stanford.
UL Lafayette - QB Jordan Davis (Knee) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Idaho.
Rice - QB Sam Glaesmann (Shoulder) "?" Saturday vs. Army.
Texas Tech - WR Keke Coutee (Knee) is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Kansas.
Oregon - QB Justin Herbert (Collarbone) out indefinitely. 2nd QB Taylor Alie (Head) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Washington State. RB Royce Freeman (Shoulder) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Washington State.
Middle Tenn St - QB Brent Stockstill (Shoulder) doubtful Saturday vs. Florida Intl.WR Richie James (Ankle) doubtful Saturday vs. Florida Intl.
Oregon State - RB Ryan Nall (Ankle) injured last game, is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. USC.
TCU - RB Kyle Hicks (Undisclosed) missed last game, probable Saturday vs. West Virginia.
LSU - RB Derrius Guice (Knee) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Florida.
Nebraska - RB Tre Bryant (Knee) is downgraded to expected to miss Saturday vs. Wisconsin.
Indiana - QB Peyton Ramsey (None) expected to start Saturday vs. Charleston Southern.
FOOTBALL BEST BETS
(These Selections Were Made A Few Days In Advance And I Reserve The Right To Change Them If Any Later Situation Occurs)
(Newsletter Best Bets Went 4-1 Last Week)
COLLEGE BEST BETS FOR SATURDAY
AUBURN TIGERS (4-1) -22.5 by 28 over Mississippi Rebels (2-2) - Auburn's 13th-ranked Tigers woke up the world last week when it crushed a decent Mississippi State team 49-10. Now coach Gus Malzahn says the best is yet to come - that Auburn is a much better team that it has showed thus far this season. That's got to make Ole Miss a little nervous, since it already has in the record book a 66-3 loss to Alabama. Auburn's defense, which gives up just 11.0 points per game should use its high-powered offense (431.0 yards and 34.2 points per game) and its lock-down defense (259.8 yards and 11.0 points per game) to dominate the Rebels from start to finish.
TULANE GREEN WAVE (2-2) -4.5 by 9-10 over Tulsa Golden Hurricane (1-4) - Tulane is a dramatically improved team - give the credit to 2nd-year coach Willie Fritz, formerly at Georgia Southern - and should be well rested after getting the week off after knocking off Army, 21-17, two weeks ago. Tulsa has been in all its games this season but has a major weakness in that it cannot stop the run as it showed last week in a 31-21 loss to Navy. Tulane takes great pride in its running game and uses it to control the pace of each game and is well equipped to do just that today and keep Tulsa's explosive offense off the field.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-1) -14.5 by 27-28 over NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (1-4) - For openers Notre Dame, which went went 4-8 last season, is back and in a very strong way. The Irish have won their last three games by at least 20 points and suffered their only loss this season by a single point - 20-19 at home against the best team Georgia has put on the field in years. While many do not understand the sudden decline of North Carolina football, the reasons are obvious. The Tar Heels have no experienced players at the skill positions. The Tar Heels defense isn't much better. It gave up 403 rushing yards in a 33-7 loss to Georgia Tech and now faces a Notre Dame team that averages 301.4 yards on the ground.
NFL BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY
San Francisco 49ers (0-4) +1.5 by 7 over INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (1-3) - The Colts are still without starting quarterback Andrew Luck and that means they will again start back-up Jacoby Brissett who fell apart last week, completing just 2-of-9 pass attempts in the second half in a 46-18 loss at Seattle. San Francisco comes into this game off an overtime loss at the Arizona Cardinals and has a defense that can shut down any opponent, especially one run by a suspect quarterback.
Los Angeles Chargers (0-4) +3 by 6-7 over NEW YORK GIANTS (0-4) - Both these teams are a mess and my figures say neither is better than its winless record. That said, I have a long-standing policy of always taking the points when teams this inept get together. I also believe the Chargers have more talent than do the Giants. One also might want to take a shot at the under in this game. The Chargers average 18 points per game, the Giants 15.0.
THE WEEKEND BETTING MENU
Saturday, Oct. 7
Games Of Week Winning By 33 Points - Another Blowout Saturday
My 50-Unit College Football Games Of The Week Are Burying Bookmakers, Winning By 33.3 Points Per Game, And Another Big One Wins Today
There are 10-12 absolute mismatches in college football every Saturday but bookmakers apparently do not know that. They are offering teams at prices that deny reality and are far afield from what they should be. That’s fine with me and I have used these mismatches to go 3-0-1 in 50-unit College Games of the Week - contests I am winning by an average of 33.3 points per game. There is another game on today’s schedule that has just such a one-sided matchup and the win and cover should come just as easily as my previous four releases. Win my 50-unit College Game of the Week today for just $50. Better yet, join my Personal Best Football Club for highrollers and save a fortune.
3-0-1 In 50-Unit Game Of Week Winners
9/30 …UNLV (-18) 41, San Jose State 13 (Won)
9/23…West Virginia (-22) 56, Kansas 34 (Push)
9/16…Virginia Tech (-27) 64, East Carolina 17 (Won)
9/9…West Virginia (-27) 56, East Carolina 20 (Won)
100-Unit PAC-12 Game Of Year Crushes Bookies Saturday
My Annual OctoberFest Program Goes For The Big Money Today With Its 100-Unit Pac-12 Game Of The Year With A Team That Should Win In Stunning Style
Every betting dynamic in the total college football handicapping spectrum is in play in the six PAC-12 Conference games being played today and in one situation the door has opened to make a giant score with my 100-unit PAC-12 Game of the Year. While the PAC-12 has been a challenge for most handicappers this season it has not been for me since I recognized before the season began that Washington was a top five team, that USC was highly over-rated and that Utah and Colorado were much better than advertised, the Utes because of their talent and the Buffaloes because of their coach. I admit I thought Washington State, because of its youth, was year away but that was the only place I was wrong. As noted there is a single game on today's PAC-12 schedule (all games are on national TV) that is the standout play of the season. The situation supports a big win and the betting line is powderpuff soft. Win this 100-unit play with me for just $50, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal. Better yet, sign up for my OctoberFest program and play the entire month for just $125 and, yes, that includes next Saturday's 300-unit College Game of the Year, a $100 value.
Saturday's PAC-12 Schedule
Stanford Cardinal (3-2) at Utah Utes (4-0)
Arizona Wildcats (2-2) at Colorado Buffaloes (3-2)
California Golden Bears (3-2) at Washington Huskies (5-0)
Washington State Cougars (5-0) at Oregon Ducks (4-1)
Oregon State Beavers (1-4) at USC Trojans (4-1)
It would be easy to take the position the bloom is off the bougainvillea in Tallahassee simply because the Seminoles have already lost two games - first to #1 5-0 Alabama, 24-7, and then to #24 4-1 N.C. State, 27-21. I suggest the jury is still out but Florida State needs to step up and fire its best shot on national television (ESPN at 3:30 Eastern) to regain its status against the undefeated and 12th-ranked Miami Hurricanes. The Seminoles have not had any trouble doing that in their last seven meetings with Miami and today go for their 8th straight win over the Hurricanes. I have a very strong opinion on this game will be my top play of the day at 15 units and you can win it, plus two additional 10-unit bets, for just $15, charged to your major credit card. Better yet, get on board for the entire college and NFL seasons for just $199 and receive 6-7 best bets each week.
Sunday, Oct. 8
This past Sunday the figures said it would for me be a big-time underdog day and I won with four of them, including my Chairman's Club 25-unit cover with the San Francisco 49ers (+6.5) who lost but covered in overtime at the Arizona Cardinals, 18-15. It is right back today with another winning underdog. As noted, last week it was the 49ers with the upset, the week before it was the New York Giants (+5) who covered in a 27-24 loss at Philadelphia. Today I am looking for the straight up win with this 'dog, which grades out with a 75% chance to report to the winner's circle. Win this Chairman's Football Club play with me for just $25.
I found three teams on today's NFL schedule that graded out with better than a 90% chance to win and cover and am taking advantage of the opportunity to win my annual OctoberFest NFL Triple Crown. This is the perfect opportunity to go 7-0 and bury your bookmaker with seven knockout winners. For the record I went 5-1 in the NFL last Sunday and that included a 10-unit win with the underdog Philadelphia Eagles and a 50-unit blowout win by the Cincinnati Bengals. The NFL Triple Crown gives one an opportunity to win seven bets without spending a fortune to do so. Here is how it works:
Win 25 unit straight bets on the three games.
Win three 2-team parlays at odds of 13-5
Win one 3-team parlay at odds of 6-1.
As noted the best bets will all be 25-unit plays and it will be your choice as to how much you want to bet on each parlay. You can take down the cash today for just $50. Better yet, sign up for my OctoberFest package and get a month of big game winners for just $125. I can assure you that you do not want to miss today's opportunity to break the bank. I am confident you can take down a fortune going 7-0.
Another 50-Unit NFL Game Of Week Wins Sunday
I Ruled The NFL Betting World Going 5-1 Last Sunday And That Included A 100-Unit Winner With Eagles And A 50-Unit Winner With Bengals
Win the big one with me today for just $50, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal, or sign up for membership in my Personal Best Football Club for the season and save a fortune.
Last Sunday's 5-1 Games
100 Units...Eagles (+2) 26, Chargers 24 (Won)
50 Units...Bengals (-3.5) 31, Browns 7 (Won)
25 Units...49ers (+6.5) 15, Cardinals 18 (Won)
10 Units...Lions (+3) 14, Vikings 7 (Won)
10 Units...Rams (+5.5) 35, Cowboys 30 (Won)
15 Units...Raiders (+3.5) 10, Broncos 16 (Lost)
Monday, Oct. 9
It takes a combination of factors to bet with confidence a side/total parlay and all those factors are present in tonight's nationally-televised Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears game. That means I am going to take advantage of this perfect situation to win a 40-unit parlay on this contest. It required a lot of work and digging to decide to go for the parlay and it all had a lot to do with personnel changes and injuries. The Bears will start rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (N.C. State) who has never played a single down in the NFL. The Vikings "may" get starting QB Sam Bradford back from a knee injury. Minnesota's starting running back Dalvin Cook is out indefinitely with a ACL injury Wade through all of this, determine the truth and win - and that is just what I have done.
It will be 25 units on the winning team, 10 units on the total and 5-units on the parlay and you can win this Chairman's play for just $20, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal.
Win a fortune today without betting one. The only thing that will surprise me would be not winning all three bets. Go for it with me.