Football Forecast - October 20-23
Volume 19, Edition 6… October 20-23, 2017
There Are Four Nationally Televised College Football Games On Friday Night's Schedule And I Intend To Make A Major Score With A 50-Unit 2-Team Parlay
Bettors Need To Pay Special Attention This Weekend To College And NFL Teams That Are In Major Bounce-Back Mode
Newsletter Contains Current Injury Reports, Trends And 6 More College And NFL Winners
By Kelso Sturgeon
Those who have followed me for years know I am a long-time student of and believer in the bounce factor in handicapping football and basketball. When I was first introduced to this element of as a supporting feature of analysis it was simply known as the "bounce theory". I stopped years ago considering a theory and have used it as a deciding point on many occasions in handicapping and it has produced scores of winners.
The bounce factor is simple. I says if a team plays far below its profile as a big favorite and loses a game straight up it is a strong candidate to win in convincing style in its next out. Conversely, it says a team that plays far above its performance profile and wins will play far below it in its next game.
Both factors are true but I have found big favorites who get beat, and that are in strong bounce-back form, are far more apt to play their guts out in their next game and win it by a large margin above the betting line. I call this a positive bounce off a negative performance. As for those teams that pulled off an upset as a big underdog in their last game do not fare as well as those in a positive mode off a negative game. The latter I refer to as a negative performance off a positive play.
With that said, there are several college and NFL teams in the positive mode off a negative performance on this weekend's schedule and I suggest you consider this unquantifiable element in handicapping games involving these teams.
The following college and NFL teams in the strongest bounce-back candidates are the following.
--Louisville lost last week at home, 45-42, to Boston College as a 19-point favorite and is a 7-point underdog at Florida State.
--Troy lost at home, 19-8 as, an 18-point favorite and is a 4.5-point favorite at home against UL-Monroe.
--Washington State lost at California, 37-3, as a 16.5-point favorite and is a 9.5-point home favorite against Colorado.
--Atlanta Falcons lost at home to the Miami Dolphins, 20-17, and are 3.5-point underdogs at New England.
--Denver Broncos lost at home to the New York Giants, 23-10, as 13.5-point favorites and are a pick'em at the San Diego Chargers.
Key Player Injury/Personnel Report For College Football
Middle Tenn St - QB Brent Stockstill (Collarbone) doubtful Friday vs. Marshall.
Troy - RB Jordan Chunn (Leg) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Georgia State.
Cincinnati U - QB Hayden Moore (Elbow) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. SMU.
Buffalo U - QB Tyree Jackson (Knee) is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Miami Ohio. 2nd QB Drew Anderson (Shoulder) is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Miami Ohio.
Charlotte - QB Hasaan Klugh (Illness) missed last game, probable Saturday vs. UAB.
Ball State - RB James Gilbert (Hand) is out indefinitely.
Georgia Tech - RB KirVonte Benson (Leg) left last game, "?" Saturday vs. Wake Forest.
Wake Forest - QB John Wolford (Shoulder) missed last game, probable Saturday vs. Georgia Tech.
Coastal Carolina - QB Tyler Keane (Shoulder) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Appalachian St. 2nd QB Dalton Demos (Concussion) is downgraded to OUT Saturday vs. Appalachian St.
Boston College - QB Anthony Brown (Shoulder) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Virginia.
Rice - QB Sam Glaesmann (Shoulder) is upgraded to probable Saturday vs. Tex San Antonio.
Georgia Southern - QB Shai Werts (Undisclosed) injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. Massachusetts.
Arkansas - QB Austin Allen (Shoulder) is downgraded to doubtful Saturday vs. Auburn.
South Alabama - RB Xavier Johnson (Ankle) injured last game, "?" Saturday vs. UL Monroe.
Notre Dame - QB Brandon Wimbush (Foot) missed last game, probable Saturday vs. USC.
Utah - QB Tyler Huntley (Arm) "?" Saturday vs. Arizona State.
Washington State - WR Tavares Martin Jr. (Suspension) is OUT Saturday vs. Colorado.
Key Player Injury/Personnel Report For NFL
Cleveland - QB DeShone Kizer (None) has been named the starter Sunday vs. Tennessee.
Tampa Bay - QB Jameis Winston (Shoulder) left last game, "?" Sunday vs. Buffalo.
Green Bay - QB Aaron Rodgers (Collarbone) out indefinitely.
Dallas - RB Ezekiel Elliott (Not Suspended) is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. San Francisco - QB C.J. Beathard (None) has been named the starter Sunday vs. Dallas.
This Week's College Betting Trends
Friday Night Games
Air Force at Nevada - Air Force is 1-5 ATS in its last six Mountain West games as a road favorite. Nevada is 3-6 ATS in last 9 in Reno.
Colorado State at New Mexico - Colorado State is 5-0 SU and ATS in last 5 against New Mexico and is 8-0 ATS in its last eight road games.
This Week's College Betting Trends
Iowa at Northwestern - Iowa has won and covered in three of the last four against Northwestern and Hawkeyes under coach Ferentz is 16-5-1 ATS in last 22 road games.
Tulsa at Connecticut - UConn is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games, with the win coming in an upset of Temple last week. Tulsa is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 road games.
SMU at Cincinnati - SMU is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games while Bearcats are 6-15-1 in last 22.
Buffalo at Miami-OH - Buffalo is 6-1 ATS this season while Miami is 1-6 and has lost all three of its home games.
Northern Illinois at Bowling Green - Northern Illinois is on 10-3-1 ATS in its last 14 games while BG is 5-14 in its last 19.
Western Michigan at Eastern Michigan - Eastern Michigan 5-1 ATS last 6 and 14-3 last 17 and has covered 5 of last 7 against Broncos.
Indiana at Michigan State - Hosts 3-0 last 3 in East Lansing but just 4-8 there last 2 years.
BYU at East Carolina - Battle of ATS losers. BYU 0-7 ATS run while ECU 2-14-1 in last 17.
Pittsburgh at Duke - Pitt is 8-4 in its last 12 games as road underdog.
Syracuse at Miami - Orange 4-1 ATS in last 5 as road 'dog while Miami is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 and 12-6-1 as a home favorite.
Wake Forest at Georgia Tech - Wake Forest is 5-1 ATS this season and 11-3 in its last 14 while Tech is on a 9-0 run, dating back to last season.
Michigan at Penn State - Michigan 6-3 ATS in last 9 road games and has crushed Penn State the past 2 seasons. Nittany Lions currently on 14-2 ATS run past 2 years.
Boston College at Virginia - BC stands 9-2-1 in its last 12 games as road underdog. Virginia 4-0 ATS last four.
Central Florida at Navy - UCF 5-0 ATS this season and 13-5 in last 18 while Navy is 7-2 in its last 9 as an underdog.
Oregon at UCLA - UCLA has lost last six to Ducks who went 4-2 ATS in those game. Bruins currently on 5-14-1 downer.
Tennessee at Alabama - Alabama 8-3 ATS in last 11 against Tennessee, a truly hated rival of the Crimson Tide, because Volunteer coaches turned team into NCAA for alleged violations.
Oklahoma State at Texas - Cowboys just 5-9-1 in last 15 as road favorite.
Auburn at Arkansas - Auburn is 6-4 ATS in last 10 as visiting favorite. The Hogs stand 0-7-1 against the number in their last 8 games.
USC at Notre Dame - Home team has won and covered in the last 4 meetings. USC on 1-7 ATS skid while Notre Dame is on 5-1 run.
LSU at Mississippi - LSU has covered in 5 of its last 6 road games but it is of note the home team in this series has won and covered in the last 4.
Arizona State at Utah - Utah has covered in 4 straight in tis series. The Sun Devils, who upset Washington last week, are 3-7-1 in their last 11 road games while the Utes is 10-2 ATS in its last 12.
Fresno State at San Diego State - Fresno State is 5-0-1 ATS this year, 10-2-1 in their last 12 and 6-1 in their last 7 as an underdog. San Diego State is 3-8 in its last 11 home games.
This Week's NFL Betting Trends
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns - Browns on 0-5 ATS run and stand 5-18 against the number in last 23 games. Cleveland games have gone UNDER by a 10-4 margin in their last 14.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts - Jaguars are 3-0 SU, have covered 4 straight against Indianapolis and are 5-1 ATS In their six games. Colts are 3-0 ATS at home this season.
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings - Ravens are 4-0 ATS in last 4 as a 'dog. Vikings 7-10 ATS in last 17.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins - Jets are 6-1-1 ATS in last 8 meetings with Dolphins.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills - Buffalo 4-1 ATS this year while Bucs are 1-6 dating back to last year.
Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears - Bears 7-1-1 ATS in last eight as home 'dog.
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers - Saints 11-5 in last 16 as road 'dog and have played to the OVER by a 4-1 margin this year.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams - Rams stand 7-1 to the OVER in their last eight games while Cardinals 12-5 ATS this year.
Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco Giants - San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games - the Cowboys 3-8 in their last 11.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers - Pittsburgh has won and covered in last 3 games against Bengals who have played to the under by a 23-9 margin in their last 32 games.
Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants - Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games against New York teams but are only 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers - Chargers are 0-7 ATS at home in last 7 home games while Denver is 5-1 SU and ATS in last six meetings with L.A.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots - Falcons 9-2 ATs in last 11 road games as an underdog while New England is 0-3 ATS at home this season.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles - Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 gams and beat the Redskins 30-17 in Washington to open the season. Washington is 8-3 in its last 11 games as a road underdog. Eagles have played 7-3-1 to the OVER in their last 11 games and the Redskins have played 20-6 to the over in their last 26.
72nd NBA Season Is Underway And I'm Already Winning
6 Best Bet Club Winners, Two 50-Unit Power Plays This Weekend
The National Basketball Association regular season is underway and it started by going 2-1 with Best Bets Club winners. The NBA winning continues this weekend, with 6 more Best Bets Club Plays and two 50-unit highroller winners. My Three Basketball Clubs
BEST BETS BASKETBALL CLUB - Get daily an average of two-three 5-to-15 unit plays in both the NBA and colleges for the entire season...Just $199 or $15 per day.
CHAIRMAN'S BASKETBALL CLUB - By far my most popular club. All Chairman's releases must qualify as 25-unit plays and members also receive all Best Bets Basketball Club plays. Just $499 for the season, $149 per month or $29 per day.
PERSONAL BEST BASKETBALL CLUB - A club designed for big bettors and highrollers who are looking for an average of four-five 50-unit and 100-unit plays each week. Members also get all Chairman's Basketball Club games. Just $999 for the season, $349 per month or $49 per day.
Get all the details, choose the club that best suits your needs and sign up online, or toll free at my office, 1-800-755-2255. All major credit cards and Pay Pal accepted.
It also is important to remind I am well wired into NBA and college basketball and got my start in this business more than four decades ago making basketball lines for a cadre of bookmakers on the East Coast. I understand teams; I understand lines and why they are what they are. The dividends of experience and knowledge have paid off for decades and they will again this year.
FOOTBALL BEST BETS
(These Selections Were Made A Few Days In Advance And I Reserve The Right To Change Them If Needed)
COLLEGE BEST BETS FOR SATURDAY
Army Black Knights (5-2) -6.5 by 14-17 over Temple Owls (3-4) - Temple has fallen off the edge of the football world under the guidance of first-year coach Geoff Collins and appears a sitting duck for the best team Army has put on the field in several years. I have seen three Temple games this season and have genuinely felt sorry for the players who are not ready to play, are confused, lack focus and are absolutely not ready to play. Army should be in command from flag-fall to finish. (12:00 Eastern. CBS College Sports Network).
Purdue Boilermakers 3-3) -9.5 by 21 over RUTGERS SCARLET KNIGHTS (2-4) - I do not know how many games Purdue will win this season but for the first time in memory the Boilermakers act like they are serious and showing up to play every game. Credit it all to first-year coach Jeff Brohm, an offensive genius who prepares his team to take its best shot, regardless of the opponent. Rutgers simply does not have the weapons to keep up with Purdue's high-octane passing attack. (12:00 Noon Eastern. Big Ten Network)
Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (2-5) -5.5 by 14 over CONNECTICUT HUSKIES 2-4) - No question Tulsa got off to a slow start and has been a major disappointment this season but it woke up last week, put it all together and buried Houston, 45-17, as a 14-point underdog at the Cougars homecoming. That is the Tulsa team I have been waiting for and I expect them to do a talent-challenged UConn team what they did to Houston last week. (12:00 Noon Eastern. ESPNU)
Louisville Cardinals (4-3) +7 by 14 over FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (2-3) - This was the season these two Atlantic Coast Conference powers were supposed to be in the running for the national championship but that obviously is not going to happen. That said, Louisville has far more talent than does Florida State, especially at the skill positions, and has the speed to run off and hide from the weakest Seminoles team I have seen in years. Nothing Florida State has done this season has impressed me. This is Louisville's bounce-back opportunity to gain back some respect and I expect the Cardinals to do just that. (12:00 Noon Eastern. ESPN)
NFL BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY
Cincinnati Bengals (2-3) +5.5 by 3 over PITTSBURGH STEELERS (4-2) - Cincinnati certainly has to be tired of getting kicked around by the Steelers and has practiced this week with new-found injury and focus and that signals me they are coming to get the money. I believe they will do just that in a major upset.
Atlanta Falcons ((3-2) +3.5 by 6-7 over the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (4-2) - There is no way Atlanta, which lost to New England in the Super Bowl last season, can be as bad as it has looked this season. With revenge on their mind, and with New England's weak pass rush, I look for the Falcons to get it done straight up.
The Friday-Saturday-Sunday Football Betting Menu
50-Unit College Parlay Cashes Big Friday Night
There Are Four Nationally Televised College Football Games On Tonight's Schedule And I Intend To Make A Major Score With A 50-Unit 2-Team Parlay
The Friday night college football schedule does not offer any marquee matchups as did last week's but it certainly remains an attractive one for bettors. All four games are playable and all are on national TV. Two of the games grade out with an 85% chance to get the money and I am releasing them in a 50-unit parlay - the winning teams at 20 units and the parlay at 10 units.
Heading into the weekend I was on a 6-1 run in college football and am confident I will win both these games. I have been quite successful with my Friday night plays and last week won 15 unit plays with two of the biggest upsets of the season. Last Friday I won with underdog Syracuse (+23.5) which upset 2nd-ranked Clemson, 27-24, and followed that up with a win by underdog California (+15.5) which upset nationally-ranked Washington State, 37-3. I am looking for another perfect Friday night and you can go 3-0 with me with this 50-unit parlay for just $25
Friday Night's College Football Schedule
(All 4 Games On National TV)
Western Kentucky (4-2) at Old Dominion (2-4)
Marshall 5-2) at Middle Tennessee State (3-4)
Air Force 2-4) at Nevada (1-6)
Colorado State (5-2) at New Mexico (3-3)
Saturday, Oct. 21
Michigan-Penn State Highlight 4-0 Marquee TV Saturday
I Went 6-1 With My Best Bets Club Football Plays And Am Confident I Will Take Down The Money With A 4-0 National TV Saturday
I went 3-1 in college football last Saturday and have found four games on today's schedule where the edges are mostly hidden but quite significant and should deliver a perfect 4-0 Saturday. All four are marquee games and all are on national TV. I will be releasing each as a 15-unit play. Every game involves at least one nationally-ranked team and the betting lines on each make them dead-even affairs. That said, in every single contest, one can find the edges that will put one team in the winner's circle - and that is something about which I am very confident. My figures say it should be a 4-0 day.
You can win all four games for the modest price of just $15. Better yet, get on board for the entire college and NFL seasons for just $179 and receive 6-7 best bets each week.
Saturday's Best Bet Football Club Games
#11 Oklahoma State (5-1) at Texas (3-3) 12:00 Noon Kickoff...On ABC
#20 Central Florida (5-0) at Navy (5-1) 3:30 Eastern Kickoff...On CBS College Sports Network
#19 Michigan (5-1) at #2 Penn State (6-0) 7:30 Eastern Kickoff...On ABC
#10 Southern California (6-1) at #16 Notre Dame (5-1) 7:30 Eastern Kickoff...On NBC
5-0-1 In College Game Of Week Plays - Another One Wins Today
I Have Been Deadly With My Last Six 50-Unit College Game Of Week Plays And And Intend To Win Another In A Blowout Today
In the interest of honesty, I must acknowledge I lost last Saturday's 300-unit Game of the Year with Auburn (-7.5) in a 27-23 loss at LSU. Auburn opened up a 20-0 lead in that game and appeared to be on its way - that is before the team's coaching staff decided to nurse it the rest of the way with a quite unsuccessful ground game. Almost every play in the second half was run up for middle for 2 yards and a cloud of dust. It was a tough one to lose but by no means diminishes my confidence and I am right back in action today believing I will remain undefeated this season with my College Football Games of the Week. There are 50 games on the Saturday schedule and one of them stands out as a strong candidate to dispose of its opponent in blowout fashion and I am releasing it was my 50-unit Game of the Week. Win it for just $50, charged to your major credit card.
5-0-1 With Last 50-Unit Game Of Week Plays
*10/7...50 Units...UCF (-14.5) 51, Cincinnati 23 (Won)
10/4...50 Units...(-7.5) 42, Georgia Southern 25 (Won)
9/30...50 Units...UNLV (-18) 41, San Jose State 13 (Won)
9/23......50 Units...West Virginia (-21) 56, Kansas 34 (Push)
9/16...50 Units...Virginia Tech (-27) 64, East Carolina 17 (Won)
9/9...50 Units...West Virginia (-24) 56, Eastern Carolina 20 (Won)
30-Point Blowout Highlights 7-0 Triple Crown
I Have Been On A Sizzling Run In College Football And Am Going For The Big Money Today With Another Bookie-Bustin' 7-0 Triple Crown
I found three teams on today's college schedule that graded out with better than a 90% chance to win and cover and am taking advantage of the opportunity to win my annual OctoberFest College Triple Crown. This is the perfect opportunity to go 7-0 and bury your bookmaker with seven knockout winners. The NFL Triple Crown gives one an opportunity to win seven bets without spending a fortune to do so. Here is how it works:
Win 25 unit straight bets on the three games.
Win three 2-team parlays at odds of 13-5
Win one 3-team parlay at odds of 6-1.
As noted the best bets will all be 25-unit plays and it will be your choice as to how much you want to bet on each parlay. You can take down the cash today for just $25, charged to your
major credit card or to Pay Pal. I can assure you that you do not want to miss today's opportunity to break the bank. I am confident you can take down a fortune going 7-0.
Sunday, October 22
Bookmakers Confusion Gifts 3 Underdog Winners Today
We Are Just 2 Weeks Into The Month And I Already Have Won 8 Underdog Plays Ranging From 100 Units To 10 Units And I Intend To Win With 3 More Today
I went 2-1 with NFL underdogs last Sunday and over the past three weeks have released 11 inning pro underdogs nine of which won straight up. Of course, when underdogs win bookmakers make a fortune even if by accident. Last week, the 'dogs went 11-2 against the spread and I believe the trend will continue today. I intend to keep right on rocking bookmakers with NFL underdog winners and am releasing three more today - one at 15 units, the other two at 10 units. As noted I have already won with 11 NFL underdogs this month and it is of note nine of them (82%) won straight up. This success has come mostly as the results from soft - even inaccurate - betting lines on high profile favorites. For instance you can see from my current underdog record listed below I have danced twice against the Dallas Cowboys and won both bets outright. There are 13 games on the Sunday schedule and in six of those contests my figures say the underdog has at least a 50& chance to win straight up and a 75% chance to cover. Those numbers are just too attractive to ignore. You can win three NFL underdog plays with me today for just $15, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal. Better yet, get on board for the entire college and NFL seasons for just $179.
11 NFL Underdog Winners Already This Month
10/15...25 Units...Chargers (+3.5) 17, Raiders 16
10/15...10 Units...Bears (+6.5) 27, Raves 24 (OT)
10/15...10 Units...Rams (+3.5) 17, Buccaneers 16
10/9...25 Units...Bears (+3.5) 17, Vikings 20
10/8...25 Units...Packers (+3) 35, Cowboys 31
10/8...10 Units...Jaguars (+7.5) 30, Steelers 9
10/8...10 Units Seahawks (+1.5) 16, Rams 10
10/1...100 Units...Eagles (+2) 26, Chargers 24
10/1...10 Units...49ers (+6.5) 15, Cardinals 18 (OT)
10/1...10 Units...Lions (+3) 14, Vikings 7
10/1...10 Units...Rams (+5.5) 35, Cowboys 30
50-Unit NFL Game Of Week Looks Like Blowout Winner
When An NFL Team Is In The Right Spot At Right Time And Has Every Important Winning Edge It's Time To Go For Broke
The most powerful thing about handicapping NFL football Is that one knows what to expect because teams early in the season establish a performance profile that most of the time predicts how it will perform against any given opponent. We have such a team on today's 13 game schedule that is in the right spot at the right time and has all the important edges it takes to win and cover and I am releasing it as the winner of my 50-unit NFL Game of the Week. I will be going for my fourth NFL Game of the Week winner in the past five weeks and must note I lost last week's game - the Green Bay Packers (-3) with their 23-10 loss at Minnesota - because Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers suffered a broken collarbone in the first quarter. With him out, Green Bay was dead in the water.
I do not expect to be done in today by such an unpredictable event and am confident I will get the money. Win my 50-unit NFL Game of the Week today for just $50, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal and set yourself but for a very enjoyable day.
Side/Total Parlay Takes Down NFL Money Again
I Took Down The Big Money Last Sunday With Another Winning 40-Unit Side/Total/Parlay And Intend To Do It Again Today
I hit another 40-unit side/total parlay last Sunday when I took down all the money with that same bet, a side/total parlay on the underdog Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) over the Oakland Raiders and the under. The final score, 17-16 in favor of the Chargers, got the 25-unit cover for Los Angeles and Under 49.0 cashed easily for for 10 units. I am coming right back today with another parlay with a team that is simply in the right spot and is being offered to the public at very soft numbers - both side and total. It required a lot of work and digging to decide to go for the parlay and it all had a lot to do with changing performance profiles and injuries. Wade through all of this, determine the truth and win - and that is just what I have done. It will again be 25 units on the winning team, 10 units on the total and 5-units on the parlay and you can win this Chairman's play for just $20, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal. Win a fortune today without betting one. The only thing that will surprise me would be not winning all three bets. Go for it with me.