Football Forecast - October 27-30
Volume 19, Edition 7… October 27-30, 2017
KELSO STURGEON DOES IT AGAIN!
For players who didn't get off to a good start I just invented a new month for you to catch up on!
A MONTH OF REGAINED OPPORTUNITIES AND REBUILT BANKROLL!
If you got off on the wrong foot or you think your bankroll is too low...NO PROBLEM!
SECOND CHANCE gives you around 40 games to ZOOM your roll up to where it shoulda, coulda been, and now IS!
SECOND CHANCE RUNS NOW THROUGH THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 30
Penn State-Ohio State Tops 100-Unit Grand Slam And That Means It's Time To Break The Bank Once More
I Am 5-1-1 In My 50-Unit College Game Of The Week Plays This Season And Am Going For Another One With A Team That Should Win By Five Touchdowns
Michigan State, Wichita State, Duke, North Carolina 1-2-3-4 In My College Top 10 For Season Just Days Away
By Kelso Sturgeon
Betting numbers in both college football and the NBA are tighter than a dead-heat while beating the NFL, in a major state of overall decline in the quality of play still requires an artful insight into the zig-and-zag element of handicapping. The Houston Astros have started hitting again and should win the World Series over the Los Angeles Dodgers and adding to each day's challenging work load will be college basketball that begins in two weeks.
The top college game of the week finds undefeated and 2nd-ranked Penn State 7-0 at 6th-ranked Ohio State (6-1) in a showdown that will have much to say about which four teams qualify for the post-season final four. The Buckeyes are 6.5-point favorites despite getting destroyed by the only good team (Oklahoma) they have played this season. It also is somewhat interesting Wisconsin, undefeated at 7-0, is quietly flying under the radar and getting little attention in the Big Ten title chase.
In addition to Penn State and Wisconsin there are six other undefeated teams - Alabama (8-0), Georgia (7-0), TCU (7-0), Miami (6-0), South Florida (7-0) and Central Florida (6-0). Three teams remain winless - Baylor (0-7), Texas-El Paso (0-7) and Georgia Southern (0-6).
My top plays in college football this week will my 100-unit 4-team OctoberFest Rivalry Grand Slam and another winning 50-unit game of the week. (all details below).
In the NFL the Philadelphia Eagles (6-1) are the surprise of the young season and have emerged as the best in the NFL. The fact they are 6-1 against the number says bookmakers and bettors have not given them the respect they deserve but rest assured that edge is now gone. In the world of pointspreads the Eagles (5-2), the Buffalo Bills (4-1-1) and the Chicago Bears (5-2) standout. If you have bet on each game the the Arizona Cardinals and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers played this season, you are 2-10-1 ATS.
Trends For Saturday's Key Games
Tennessee Volunteers at Kentucky Wildcats - Tennessee is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games with Kentucky but has not covered this season, standing 0-5-1 in its 6 games..
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Clemson Tigers - Georgia Tech has covered in its last 10 games dating back to last season and is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog. Clemson is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 meetings with Georgia Tech.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers - WVU is 6-9 ATS in its last 15 home games and 2-6 as a dog the past two seasons. The Cowboys have won and covered in the last 2 meetings.
Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Tech Hokies - Duke is 20-9 ATS in its last 29 games as an underdog and is 3-1 ATS in its last four games with the Hokies.
Southern California Trojans at Arizona State Sun Devils - The Trojans are 1-8 ATS in their las 9 games and 4-14 ATS in its last 18 away from home
Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks - Kansas State 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in last 10 against Jayhawks and 18-2 in last 20.
N.C. State Wolfpack at Notre Dame Fighting Irish - Notre Dame is 6-1 ATS this season but is just 1-4 ATS in its last five games after hosting Southern California.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Ohio State Buckeyes - The Buckeyes have covered in their last 3 games but are only 1-3 ATS at home this season and 6-12 there in their past 18. Penn State is 15-2 ATS in its last 17 games.
UCLA Bruins at Washington Huskies - UCLA has won and covered in its last 2 meetings with Washington but is just 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games and just 2-8-1 in its last 11 road games.
THIS WEEKEND'S FOOTBALL BEST BETS
(These Selections Were Made A Few Days In Advance And I Reserve The Right To Change if needed)
COLLEGE BEST BETS FOR SATURDAY
Louisville Cardinals (5-3) -3 by 12-13 over WAKE FOREST DEMON DEACONS (4-3) - This is the same Louisville team that began the season ranked in the Top Ten and played like it last week in a 31-28 win at Florida State. The Cardinals obviously have not given up on the season and will again bring their "A" game to Winston-Salem looking for redeem their name. It is of note Louisville has won all four games in this series. (12:20 Eastern On ACC Network)
Indiana Hoosiers (3-4) -4.5 by 19-20 over MARYLAND TERRAPINS (3-4) - It is obvious Maryland is not quite ready to run the gauntlet in the Big Ten after getting destroyed in their last three games - 38-13 at Wisconsin, 37-21 at home by Northwestern and 62-14 at Ohio State. Maybe next year? The Terps are meeting a good Indiana team that was quite competitive in its last two games, losing at home to Michigan, 27-20, and last week at Michigan State, 17-9. The Hoosiers have two much talent and too much depth for Maryland and should romp. (3:30 Eastern On Big Ten Network)
ARIZONA WILDCATS (5-2) +2.5 by 6-7 over Washington State Cougars (7-1) - Arizona is one of the biggest surprises of the college football season. The Wildcats went 3-9 last year and were picked to finish last or next to last in the PAC-12 this time around. That obviously is not going to happen because their quarterback Khalil Tate has emerged as one of the best offensive players in the game. So outstanding has been his play he has been named Conference Offensive Player of the Week three consecutive weeks - the first player since Rodney Peete in 1988 to do that. In the process he has led Arizona to three consecutive wins - beating Colorado in Boulder, 45-42, UCLA at home, 47-30, and California, 49-44, in Berkeley. Washington State is nobody's pushover but my gut feeling is that Arizona will make it four straight. (9:30 Eastern On PAC-12 Network)
NFL BEST BETS FOR SUNDAY
CINCINNATI BENGALS (2-4) -10.5 by 21 over Indianapolis Colts (2-5) - The Cincinnati Bengals may have an unexpected dreadful record but they have the wherewith all to bury this rather hopeless Colts team - a team that has the worst offensive line in the NFL. This fact was driven home last week when they were crushed at home, 27-0, by the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Colts offensive line gave up 10 sacks and made certain back-up quarterback Jacoby Brissett spent the day running for his life. Starting QB Andrew Luck remains out with a shoulder injury and if I were him - noting the offensive line - would try not to return this season. It is little wonder Brissett has thrown but one TD pass in the last three games.
DETROIT LIONS (3-3) +2.5 by 7 over Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) - My figures say the Detroit Lions are much better than their record and I believe they will show that today in a mild upset. Both these teams have excellent defenses but Detroit matches up extremely well against the Steelers offense and seems primed to give Pittsburgh quarterback fits. Detroit has practiced this week in a manner that suggests it is going to go conservative, control the flow of the game and these two factors make the +2.5 a major factor in what figures to be a very close game.
Duke 5-1 Favorite To Win NCAA Basketball Championship- The Season Begins In 2 Weeks With 59 Games
The 2017-18 college basketball season begins in two Weeks, on Friday, November 10, when 59 games are scheduled. That means if you have not already began your analysis of the more than 350 teams on which we will have the opportunity to get this season, you need to get with it. Personally I have owned the early college season for decades because I am ready for it - having already arrived at a current performance profile for every single NCAA I team.
There are two rules I always follow early:
- Never underestimate the power of the home floor bias.
- Don't try to win bets on or against teams about which you know nothing.
I am off to a very decent start in the NBA and intend to come out firing from the get-to in the colleges. Again I have three clubs designed to serve the needs of bettors, whether they wager $10 or $1,000 per game. For instance you can get the entire college and NBA seasons for just $195 and save a fortune for play by the day for $15.
My Three Basketball Clubs
BEST BETS BASKETBALL CLUB - Get daily an average of two-three 5-to-15 unit plays in both the NBA and colleges for the entire season...Just $199 or $15 per day.
CHAIRMAN'S BASKETBALL CLUB - By far my most popular club. All Chairman's releases must qualify as 25-unit plays and members also receive all Best Bets Basketball Club plays. Just $499 for the season, $149 per month or $29 per day.
PERSONAL BEST BASKETBALL CLUB - A club designed for big bettors and highrollers who are looking for an average of four-five 50-unit and 100-unit plays each week. Members also get all Chairman's Basketball Club games. Just $999 for the season, $349 per month or $49 per day.
Get all the details, choose the club that best suits your needs and sign up online, or toll free at my office, 1-800-755-2255. All major credit cards and Pay Pal accepted.
It also is important to remind I am well wired into NBA and college basketball and got my start in this business more than four decades ago making basketball lines for a cadre of bookmakers on the East Coast. I understand teams; I understand lines and why they are what they are. The dividends of experience and knowledge have paid off for decades and they will again this year.
Kelso's Opening College Basketball Top 10
1. Michigan State Spartans - Best Michigan team in years.
2. Wichita State Shockers - Returns top 9 players and primed to win it all.
3. Duke Blue Devils - Loaded as usual will shock no one if they win it all.
4. North Carolina Tar Heels - Never out of it.
5. Kansas Jayhawks - Talented, gritty and plays to win them all.
6. Saint Mary's Gaels - Replaces Gonzaga as best in West this season.
7. Villanova Wildcats - Loaded and as dangerous as ever.
8. Kentucky Wildcats - One-and-done NBA prep team is always a sleeper.
9. Missouri Tigers - Legitimate power-best team Missouri has had in years.
10. Virginia Cavaliers - Well coached and plays defense like it invented it.
The Weekend's Football Betting Menu
Friday, Oct. 27
Can Boston College Hand Florida State Its 5th Loss Friday Night?
Florida State (2-4) Is A 3.5-Point Favorite At Boston College (4-4) And You Can Take It To The Bank The Seminoles Are Extremely Nervous...Go 2-0 Tonight
Florida State began this season as the 3rd-ranked team in the country and had no idea this would be the disastrous season it has become. At the other end of the spectrum back in August was Boston College which was picked to finish last in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Things have not quite worked out that way. Boston College opened 1-3 with the losses coming at the hands of Wake Forest, Notre Dame and Clemson. The Eagles offense was terrible and then something happened. In its last four games, BC has beaten Central Michigan, 28-8, and scored upsets at Louisville, 45-42, and Virginia, 41-10. What has happened and which team will show up tonight?
As for Florida State, the Seminoles have beaten only Wake Forest and Duke while losing to Alabama, N.C. State and Louisville. The Boston College wake-up call is the results of outstanding performances by three heretofore unknown redshirt freshmen - quarterback Anthony Brown, running back A.J. Dillon and wide-receiver Kobay White. When these three figured it out, it was lights-out and a formerly non-existent offense scored 40 points in back-to-back games for the first time in school history. Brown had completed just 46.9% of his passes in his last four games but went 19-of-24 passing and three touchdowns in the blowout win at Virginia. As for Dillon, he woke up at Louisville and rushed 39 times for 272 yards and last week gained 89 more against the Cavaliers. Kobay has 24 receptions for 313 yards and scored on a 75-yard pass last week. This certainly is not the same BC team we saw at the beginning of the season. As for FSU, who knows?
I am confident I have the winner of this nationally-televised (ESPN) game and will be releasing it as a 15-unit Best Bets Football Club play. There are two other TV games on tonight's schedule - Tulane (3-4) at Memphis (6-1) and Tulsa (2-6) at SMU (5-2) and I will also being releasing one of them at the 10-unit level. Go 2-0 with me tonight for just $15 and build your bankroll for another dynamite weekend. All major credit cards and Pay Pal accepted.
Saturday, Oct. 28
Penn State-Ohio State Tops 100-Unit Grand Slam
It's Time To Break The Bank Once More With My Annual OctoberFest 4-Team Rivalry Grand Slam And I Intend To Do That With Four Power Plays
There are at least 18 rivalry games on the Saturday college football schedule and I am going to use four of them to deliver the big money for my OctoberFest clients with a 100-unit 4-0 Grand Slam. All four games are important traditional rivalry contests that usually bring out the best in all eight teams as they take their best shot to win one of their what to them is one of their most important games.
As you can see from the four grand slam games listed below, betting lines make all dead-even affairs. However I have found significant edges in each of the games and these edges should give us four 25-unit winners for the day. You can win the 4-game OctoberFest Grand Slam for just $35, charged to your major credit card or to your Pay Pal account. Please - do yourself a favor and rock your bookmaker big time today. It is your option if you want to combine the winners in various parlays (11 are possible).
Today's 100-Unit OctoberFest 4-0 College Grand Slam
Penn State (7-0) at Ohio State (6-1) Begins At 3:30 Eastern...On FOX
Kansas State(3-4) at Kansas (1-6) Begins at 3:00 Eastern...On Fox Sports 1
UCLA (4-3) at Washington (6-1) Begins at 3:30 Eastern...On ABC
Tennessee (3-4) at Kentucky (5-2) Begins at 7:30 Eastern...On SEC Network
You Can Send It In On Saturday's 50-Unit Game Of Week
I Am 5-1-1 In My 50-Unit College Game Of The Week Plays This Season And Am Going For Another One With A Team That Should Win By Five Touchdowns
I stubbed my toe last week and lost my first 50-unit College Football Game of the Week this season but am confident I will bounce right back today and take down another big money winner. The team am releasing as my 50-unit College Game of the Week winner is dramatically superior to its opponent but that fact is absent from the betting line. In other words, I intend to win with a dominating team being offered with another very soft betting line. The team I am releasing grades out with a 90% chance to win and cover and I am extremely confident it will take charge from the get-go and march right to the winner's circle with its best showing of the season. Win this one with me for just $50. Believe me it's right back to winning the big ones today.
5-1-1 With Last 50-Unit Game Of Week Plays
10/21...50 Units UAB (-9.5) 24, Charlotte 25 (Lost)
*10/7...50 Units...UCF (-14.5) 51, Cincinnati 23 (Won)
10/4...50 Units...(-7.5) 42, Georgia Southern 25 (Won)
9/30...50 Units...UNLV (-18) 41, San Jose State 13 (Won)
9/23......50 Units...West Virginia (-21) 56, Kansas 34 (Push)
9/16...50 Units...Virginia Tech (-27) 64, East Carolina 17 (Won)
9/9...50 Units...West Virginia (-24) 56, Eastern Carolina 20 (Won)
*Game Was A Win But Not For Betting Purposes Since It Was Called With 4 seconds Left In 3rd Quarter. Games Must Go At Least 55 Minutes For Betting Purposes
Three Stunning Bounce-Back Plays Win Saturday
There Are Numerous Teams On The College Football Schedule And Three of Them Are Standout Bets To Get The Cover And The Cash
The bounce-back element is alive and well in college football and has produced many winners this season. To earn the tag of a "bounce-back" candidate two requirements must be met - (1) a team must have lost its last game as a favorite and (2) must have the ability to come right back and get the job done in dominating fashion. We have three such qualifying teams today and I am releasing all of them to my Best Bets Football Club members as solid 15-unit plays. You can go 3-0 with me today for just $15, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal.
I am on a powerful winning run in the NFL, went 6-1-1 (see below) last week and still have not decided precisely what I am going to do Sunday and Monday. The betting schedule will be posted here Sunday a.m. and will include at least one 50-unit or 100-unit play. I know I am being very cautious but I need to have all the last minute information before making a final decision.
Meantime I will let last weekend's results speak for where I am going Sunday and Monday.
NFL Goes 6-1-1 This Past Week
Monday Night Football
50 Units...Eagles (-4.5) 34, Redskins 24 (Won)
NFL Game Of The Week
50 Units...Jacksonville (-3) 27, Indianapolis 0 (Won)
40-Unit Side/Total Parlay
25 Units...Seattle (-3.5) 24, New York Giants 7 (Won)
10 Units...Seahawks-Giants UNDER 39 (Won)
5 Units...Parlay of Seahawks and Under (Won)
Best Bets Club
15 Units...New York Jets (+3) 28, Miami 31 (Push)
10 Units...San Francisco (+6) 10, Dallas 40 (Lost)
10 Units...Los Angeles Chargers (+1) 21, Denver 0 (Won)