NFL Football Forecast - November 19
Volume 19, Edition 11… November 19, 2017
By Kelso Sturgeon
Stop, slowdown and take a deep breath. The National Football League can only be described this season as chaotic on and off the field but there is no reason to buy into all the distractions. The winners are still there and I intend to keep right on proving it, topped Sunday by a winning 150-unit parlay on two teams that grade out with a 90% chance to win and cover. It doesn't get better than that and it is a golden opportunity to make a fortune.
I am aware of but not distracted by all the issues that are contributing to this mind boggling season, whether it relates to the absolutely stupid practice of kneeling during the national anthem and in the process giving fans the finger, the league's threat to force Jerry Jones to sell the Dallas Cowboys (some chance) because he's too much of a loudmouth and a bully and continually challenges the authority of commissioner Roger Goodell and, yes, why should not the league raise the latter's salary to $50 million a year?
For the record, one owner - not Jones - wants to replace Goodell with NBA commissioner Adam Silver.
But that means nothing to me. My concerns are the decline in overall quality of the league's current crop of quarterbacks. Brady is great but who is Blaine Gabbert? What impact will the loss of superstar running back Ezekiel Elliott have on the Dallas Cowboys and who in heaven's name is Nathan Peterman who this week replaces Tyrod Taylor as the starting quarterback?
And while we're talking about all of this, why is no one suggesting the ownership and management of the Cleveland Browns (0-9 this season and 1-24 over the last two) give up the franchise and take a walk? How long are Cleveland fans going to suffer. It gets a little tired always waiting until next year.
At the present time, my focus is equally on the world of football and the world of basketball. The winning continues in both sports and I want to advise you I am 2-0 with my 50-unit college basketball plays and am going for another one Sunday. Then its right back in the NBA on Monday with another winning 50-unit Game of the Week bet. I am 6-1-1 with my last eight 50-unit NBA plays.
THIS WEEKEND'S NFL BEST BETS
(These Selections Were Made A Few Days In Advance I Reserve The Right To Change Them if Any Later Situation Occurs - Home Team In CAPS)
CHICAGO BEARS (3-6) +3 by 7 over Detroit Lions (5-4) - Some days one has to go with his gut feeling on game and I am doing just that here. The Bears are better than their record, have had outstanding practices this week and are strong candidates to ambush Detroit which may well be looking ahead to its showdown battle on Thanksgiving Day against the Minnesota Vikings
GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-4) +2 by 7 over Baltimore Ravens (5-4) - The Packers may be without superstar quarterback Aaron Rodgers but that still does not mean they can't win. Green Bay is operating under the philosophy that it can still make the playoffs with backup QB Brett Hundley leading the way and still be alive for a playoff spot when Rodgers returns in Week 16. Baltimore's offense is so anemic the Packers do not have to score much to get the win.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9-2) - Washington Redskins (4-5) over 51 Points - New Orleans has a long history of seeing its games go over the total (35-23 since 2013 and have a power-packed offense that is averaging 29.8 points per game. The Washington Redskins are also a regular "over" participant, going 23-7 "over" in its last 30 games. Mark this one down for a 55-56-point game.
NFL Sunday Injury/Personnel Report
Tampa Bay - QB Jameis Winston (Shoulder) is out indefinitely. Tampa Bay - WR Mike Evans (Suspension Served) is probable Sunday vs. Miami.
Green Bay - QB Brett Hundley (Hamstring) is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Baltimore.
Arizona - QB Drew Stanton (Knee) will not start Sunday vs. Houston.
Arizona - QB Blaine Gabbert (None) has been named the starter Sunday vs. Houston.
LA Chargers - QB Philip Rivers (Concussion) is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Buffalo.
Buffalo - QB Nathan Peterman (None) has been named the starter Sunday vs. LA Chargers.
Dallas - RB Ezekiel Elliott (Suspension) is OUT six games (eligible to return 12/24 vs. Seattle).
Philadelphia - TE Zach Ertz (Hamstring) is upgraded to probable Sunday vs. Dallas.
NFL Rundown For Sunday Games
DETROIT LIONS (5-4) at CHICAGO BEARS (3-6)
Chicago is 4-1 ATS with rookie quarterback Mitchell Trubisky (North Carolina) under center. Meantime the Bears have been limited to 17 or less points in seven of its nine games. Detroit has won seven of the past eight meetings but the past five have been decided by a total of 19 points, or an average of 3.88 points. Of note Chicago has played to the "under" in seven of its games this season.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (6-3) at NEW YORK GIANTS (1-8)
The Giants underwent the indignity of the season last week when they lost in San Francisco to the previously winless 49ers, 31-21, meaning they have been outscored by 88 points. KC opened 5-0 and since has gone 1-3, losing to Pittsburgh, Oakland and Dallas and appears to be in right spot to win. Cover? Giants are 0- 4 ATS at home and KC coach Andy Reid's teams are 14-4 ATS in 18 games coming off a bye.
TAMPA BUCCANEERS (3-6) at MIAMI DOLPHINS (4-5)
Bucs are 2-8-1 ATS in last 11 and 0-4-1 against the number in their last five road games. Tampa Bay will again go with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback in place of the injured Jameis Winston (shoulder). He was successful last week in leading the Bucs to a 15-10 win last week over his old team, the New York Jets. Miami has one big problem - a lackluster inept offense that averages and NFL-worst 15.2 points and a 2nd-worst offense that averages 275.0 yards per game.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (4-5) at GREEN BAY PACKERS (5-4)
The Ravens have been an under-performing team all season and arrive in Green Bay last in the NFL in passing average (165.7) yards and last in yards per completion (5.3 yards). Baltimore has played "over" the total by a margin of 10-4 in their last 14 games but are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. Packers running backs Ty Montgomery (ribs) and Aaron Jones (knee) have been held out of practice all week and are questionable.
LOS ANGELES RAMS (7-2) at MINNESOTA VIKINGS (7-2)
For openers, both teams are in 1st place in their respective divisions. The Rams are 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this season and second-year quarterback Jared Goff has put his name in the record book in the team's last three games, becoming the first player in franchise history to throw for last 300 yards and 11 touchdowns with no interceptions in three straight games. He is aided by running back Todd Gurley who ranks fourth in NFL rushing with 754 yards. The Vikings go again with back-up quarterback Case Keenum who is filling in for the injured Sam Bradford and he has been aces in leading the team to the top in his seven starts.
ARIZONA CARDINALS (4-5) at HOUSTON TEXANS (3-6)
Both teams have suffered disastrous injuries at the quarterback position and find themselves truly up against it. Backup Tom Savage again starts for Houston in place of rookie sensation Deshaun Watson, out for the season with a torn ACL, simply because they have no suitable substitute. Savage is 0-3 in three games (2 starts) and the once high-scoring team has scored only 21 points in their last two games. The Cardinals have lost their 1-2 quarterbacks and will start former first-round pick Blaine Gabbert. Arizona is 1-4 ATS on the road this season, with the only cover against an inept San Francisco team, and stands 5-13 ATS in its last 18 games.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (6-3) at CLEVELAND BROWNS (0-9)
Same song, 10th verse. The Cleveland Browns are handicapped and doomed by the most enthusiastically ignorant front office in the NFL but the team still comes out fighting, albeit outclassed, each week and will try to win a game after going 1-24 in their last 25 outings. The win will be a big-time challenge - the cover? It is of note Cleveland is 8-26-1 ATS in its last 35 games. Jacksonville will be going for its fourth-straight win and appear to be at the top of their game on both sides of the ball. The Jaguars are giving up an NFL best 14.9 points per game and lead the league in sacks with 35. Might be a long afternoon for Browns rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame)?
WASHINGTON REDSKINS (4-5) at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (9-2)
Conflicting trends in this spot. New Orleans is 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games while Washington is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 road games. There is no conflicting numbers on the total, however, The Saints are a traditional "over" team and stand 35-23 in that category in their last 58 games. Washington stands 23-7 to the "over" in its last 30 games.
BUFFALO BILLS (5-4) at LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (3-6)
Are the Bills throwing in the towel for this season? That is the question on the table as Buffalo benches quarterback Tyrod Taylor (ranked 15th of 32 NFL starting signal callers). Taylor will be replaced today by rookie Nathan Peterman (the 17th pick in the 5th round of the draft. Very strange spot to start a rookie since the Chargers are much better than their record and have an outstanding pass rush that has recorded 29 sacks this season, second best in the NFL.
CINCINNATI BENGALS (3-6) at DENVER BRONCOS (3-6)
It would be a classic understatement to say Cincinnati and Denver have been the two most disappointing teams in the NFL this season. Both began the year with high hopes, backed by a ton of talent, and then fell apart. Denver has gotten worse, Cincinnati a bit better as the season progressed. Denver started 3-1 and its been all down hill since then. The Bengals started 0-3 but are playing better now. The Broncos, once known for their lockdown defense, have given up 92 points in their last two games - losses to Philadelphia and New England. In addition to that, the offense seems lost and has scored 20 points but once in its last seven games.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (7-2) vs. OAKLAND RAIDERS (4-5)
This one is being played in 104,000-seat Estadio Azteca in Mexico City. Oakland is 1-5-1 against the line in its past seven games and stand 1-5-1 in their last seven games away from home. The Patriots and Raiders have met but four times in the past 12 seasons and the former won them all. Both quarterbacks are at the top of their games. Pats signal caller Tom Brady has 19 touchdown passes for an NFL high 2,807 yards, with just two interceptions this season. Raiders QB Derek Carr has been outstanding since coming back from an injury and in his last three games has thrown for 1,030 yards and five touchdowns.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (8-1) at DALLAS COWBOYS (5-4)
Philadelphia has been a good friend to bettors over their last 12 games dating back to last season, going 10-2 against the spread. Of major importance is the fact Dallas will be without suspended super star running back Ezekiel Elliott and possibly will have to also get along without Pro Bowl offensive tackle Tyron Smith who is recovering from a back injury. The Eagles have lost only at Kansas City, 27-20, in the second game of the season and have since gone 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. The Eagles are winning by an average of 12.5 points per game.
Sunday NFL Betting Menu
Sting Your Bookmaker With 150-Unit 2-Team NFL Parlay
One Of The Rarest Of Opportunities To Make A Giant NFL Score Is Front And Center Today And I Intend To Take Down The Money With Two Blowouts
I always run my figures and handicapping protocol on every team in every NFL game 10-12 times to determine which teams are worth a play and which teams have so many holes in their current history they are too unpredictable to merit a bet. But that is just the beginning, since the bigger question is whether they should cover the number. In the handicapping process of today's 12 games, two teams popped up as potential blowout winners, with each grading out with better than a 90% chance to win and cover. And the icing on the cake was the fact both were being offered by two of the softest betting lines I have seen this season. When a team is in the right spot at the right time and is being offered with a ridiculous betting line the opportunity is present to make a big score and I have made it a long-standing habit to do just that win. Today we have two teams that fit that situation. I am going for the big money in a rather unusual way, releasing the two teams that grade out with a 90% chance to get it done each as 50-unit plays and then complete the giant score with a 50-unit parlay on both winners. My success in big-game plays in the NFL this season entitles me to charge anything I want for this 150-unit parlay, but that is not my style. Get all the cash with me for just $50,
It's A 3-0 Day In The NFL Today
My Best Bets Football Club Has Gone 6-2-1 In NFL The Past Three Sundays And Is Primed To Win Three More Games With Three Mismatches
Handicappers know they have punched their tickets to winning when they find three definite NFL mismatches in games that do not reflect that difference in the betting lines. We have three such games today and I will be releasing the winners of all three, including two favorites and an underdog, as my Best Bet Football Club plays of the day. As noted above, my Best Bets Football Club has gone 6-2-1 the past three Sundays and I do believe I will get the sweep today. The two favorites I am releasing should easily cover the spread by double digits and the underdog should win outright in a romp.
Win all three games today for just $15
Side/Total Parlay Takes Down NFL Again Money Today
My Chairman's Club Just Missed Hitting Its 3rd Straight 40-Unit Parlay Last Sunday And I Am Going For Another Bookie Buster Today
I shot for my 3rd consecutive winning NFL side/total parlay last Sunday and just missed - winning a 25-unit play on the Minnesota Vikings (Pick'em) with their 38-30 takedown at the Washington Redskins, while losing the 10-unit total and the 5-unit parlay. Still it was a winning day for my Chairman's Football Club members. I had hit two of my last three 40-unit NFL side/total parlays, using a special formula that produces 70% winners, and was confident I would win another one. It just didn't happen but I am coming right back today with another one, releasing a team that is simply in the right spot and is being offered to the public at very soft numbers - both side and total. As usual It required a lot of work and digging to decide to go for the parlay and it all had a lot to do with changing performance profiles and injuries. Wade through all of this, determine the truth and win - and that is just what I have done. It will again be 25 units on the winning team, 10 units on the total and 5-units on the parlay and you can win this Chairman's play for just $20, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal. Win a fortune today without betting one. The only thing that will surprise me would be not winning all three bets. Go for it with me.