Football Forecast - Super Bowl
Volume 19, Edition 22… February 3-4, 2018
Going For Another 300-Unit Super Bowl Win Sunday
12-4 In Last 16, 27-5 With Sides/Totals Since 2001
The "Silver Bullet" Formula Strikes Again
100-Unit College Basketball Blowout Game Of Month
Should Score By 25-30 Points Saturday To Kickoff Weekend
Las Vegas Bookies Loaded With Philadelphia Action
And Pulling For New England To Win And Cover
By Kelso Sturgeon
Relax—it's just another football game. Exciting, but same old same old—same rules and regulations of the regular season and the same incompetent officiating that quite often determines who wins and who loses. Super Bowl #52 will be played Sunday in Minneapolis when the National Football Conference champion Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) take the field to face the American Conference champion New England Patriots (15-3) and the reality of the day is that both teams have the talent to win it. The Patriots remain the favorite at -4.5, with a few -4s being offered, and the total is pretty much a solid 48.5.
The betting line is as honest and hard as it can get. Nobody is trying to middle the game that opened with the Patriots -5.5. If you took +5.5 at the open, there is no reason to turn around and lay the -4.5 since "5" is considered a dead number with less than 2.0% of the games falling on it.
Las Vegas and offshore bookmakers are extremely nervous because of the heavy action received on the Eagles. For instance, a straight up Philadelphia win (forget about the points) would bury some books that have already taken multi-millions of dollars in money-line bets on the Eagles at odds of 9-5. Vegas bookmakers said today they are starting to see some wiseguy action on New England but know in the end they are going to need the Patriots to win and cover.
There is also heavy totals betting, most of it going on "over" 48.5.
There are more than 300 proposition bets available and to give you some idea of where the money is going, here are the top 10 plays from the William Hill sports books.
Top 10 Super Bowl Prop Bets By Dollars Bet
- Point spread proposition: Eagles +21.5.
- Will there be a safety: No.
- Point spread proposition: Patriots +7.5.
- Will Tom Brady have a rushing TD? No.
- Will both teams have a 100-yard rusher? No.
- Blocked field goal/blocked punt returned for TD? No
- Point spread proposition: Patriots +3.5.
- Point spread proposition: Eagles +10.5
- Two Win Most Valuable: Tom Brady
- Will Patriots score in every quarter? No.
The only thing Vegas bookmakers are confident of is that wagering on this Super Bowl will be the heaviest ever and will easily eclipse the record $138.5 million handled last year.
The King Of Super Bowl Handicapping Scores Again
It Is Not A Stretch To Proclaim Myself King Of Super Bowl
Handicappers Since No One Does It Better Standing 12-4
In The Last 16 Super Bowls And An Amazing 25-7
In Sides And Totals Since 2001
When Super Bowl #52 is over Sunday I am confident I will once again make another giant winning score with a 300-unit play. How big a score will that be? My average release is rated 15 units, giving you some idea of just how strongly I feel about this year's big game—300 units vs. 15 units. Do the math.
The "Silver Bullet" formula again wins the side and total and the parlay that goes with those two bets.
I am among those who have seen all of the 51 previous Super Bowl games and through the years have been involved in some of history's biggest betting coups on this game—one in mid-six figures. It is no accident I stand 12-4 with sides and 13-3 with totals since 2001—numbers that add up to a rather amazing 25-7 number.
It would be easy to take all the credit for my success but I cannot do that. Yes, I know football, betting lines and what the marriage of the two mean for bettors. That aside my success in the Super Bowl comes with a formula shared with me by former Kansas City Chiefs and Hall of Fame coach Hank Stram, one of the great thinkers and innovative individuals to ever coach in the NFL.
During out television time together Stram, who won Super Bowl IV with the Chiefs who upset the Minnesota Vikings, showed me his formula for picking the winners—both favorites and 'dogs—and his chart revealed he had at that time predicted the winner of every Super Bowl. He was proud if it, and it worked in spectacular fashion.
That formula, which I have used for the past 16 years, is as close to the magic "Silver Bullet" as there ever will be and I am obviously using it again this year. I do not remember a time I was more confident I would take down the cash in the big game—so sure of myself that I am again shooting for the moon with another 300-unit play. It will be 200 units on the winning side 70 units on the total and 30 units on the side/total parlay.
Plus, I will throw in five proposition bets to put a little more icing on the cake.
You can again get the Super Bowl cash with me for the modest price of just $50, charged to your major credit card or to your Pay Pal account. The game will be available on this website and toll free at my office…1-800-755-2255.
Super Bowl Handicapping Hints And Insights
Super Bowl underdogs have 12-4 against the spread (ATS) in the last 16 games, beginning with the 2002 season when New England knocked off the Rams 20-17 as 14-point underdogs. The underdog has won the Super Bowl straight up (SU) seven times in the past 10 years.
New England coach Bill Belichick and Patriots quarterback have been to eight Super Bowls together and won five of those games. A win would tie New England with the Pittsburgh Steelers with six wins in the big game. In last year's Super Bowl win over the Atlanta Falcons, the Patriots came from 25 points down to win in overtime.
It is somewhat ironic no team has won back-to-back Super Bowls since Patriots bet the Eagles 24-14 in the 2005 Super Bowl. Pats vs. Eagles—very interesting.
New England superstar wide-receiver Ron Gronkowski is out of concussion protocol and will play against the Eagles.
Both teams closed out the season at the top of their form. New England 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five games, contests that included beating Jacksonville, 24-20 as a 7.5-point favorite, and Tennessee, 35-14, as a 13.5-point choice. Philadelphia marched through the playoffs, winning both its games as an underdog. The Eagles buried Minnesota, 38-7, as a 3-point home dog in the conference championship game, and before that got the best of favored Atlanta, 15-.
It is of note Brady was his usually outstanding self in the playoffs while Philadelphia got it done with back-up quarterback Nick Foles in charge. As a replacement for superstar Carson Wentz (out with a knee injury) Foles will be the third quarterback in NFL history to start in the Super Bowl having started just three games during the season. The first two led their teams to victory.
While Foles had a reputation of being unable to get it done, he came to life in the two playoff games and in the shocking blowout of Minnesota threw for 352 yards and three touchdowns. He will be playing in the big game with sore ribs but pre-game painkillers will take care of that.
Saturday Basketball Betting Menu
--100-Unit College Blowout Game of the Month.
--25-Unit College Underdog Game of the Week.
--Nationally televised Oklahoma at Texas game highlights 3-0 Best Bets Club day
All these games will be available on the Internet at www.kelsosportshandicapping.com or toll free at my office…1-800-755-2255. All major credit cards and Pay Pal accepted.
RHODE ISLAND (18-3), WICHITA STATE (17-5) TWO SLEEPERS IN KELSO'S TOP 20 COLLEGE TEAMS
One must always be careful to not overreact to teams play far above or far below their established performance profile. On any give day teams are not as good as they look, nor as bad. For instance powerhouse teams North Carolina and West Virginia have lost three consecutive games but that does not mean they are not very good squads. For certain, few opponents will get rich playing them.
I have thoroughly examined all 351 teams that will be on the betting board for the rest of the season and have posted below the 20 teams my figures say are the best. You may disagree but my figures do not lie and are the reason I am again having an excellent basketball season.
LEGEND FOR RANKINGS: KP—the highly respected KenPom rankings. RPI—the official NCAA rankings. SOS—the team's strength determined by the RPI folks. Teams in the KenPom and RPI ratings are of all 351 teams and listed below show where each team is ranked in each category. For instance Kansas, my 4th-ranked team, is 8th in the KP rankings, 6th in the RPI numbers and have played the 2nd toughest schedule in the country.
KELSO'S TOP 20 COLLEGE BASKETBALL TEAMS
- VILLANOVA 20-1 1st 2nd 39th
- VIRGINIA 21-1 2nd 1st 20th
- PURDUE 22-2 3rd 8th 44th
- KANSAS 18-4 8th 6th 2nd
- DUKE 19-3 4th 4th 13th
- AUBURN 20-2 10th 7th 40th
- OKLAHOMA 16-5 26th 11th 18th
- ARIZONA 19-4 19th 16th 41st
- CINCINNATI 20-2 5th 15th 83rd
- MICHIGAN STATE 21-3 6th 23rd 90th
- XAVIER 20-3 11th 3rd 14th
- KENTUCKY 17-5 28th 13th 8th
- TEXAS TECH 18-4 13th 17th 52nd
- OHIO STATE 19-5 14th 22nd 32nd
- NORTH CAROLINA 16-7 12th 10th 1st
- TENNESSEE 16-5 9th 12th 9th
- LOUISVILLE 16-6 31st 19th 23rd
- WEST VIRGINIA 16-6 18th 33rd 49th
- RHODE ISLAND 18-3 34th 9th 42nd
- WICHITA STATE 17-5 20th 26th 61st
A College Basketball Betting Primer
THE TOP 10 SCORING TEAMS IN THE COUNTRY
- Oklahoma 90.7
- Duke 90.2
- Gonzaga 88.2
- Portland State 88.0
- Villanova 87.8
- Creighton 86.5
- TCU 86.5
- Marshall 86.2
- Arizona State 85.9
- UNLV 85.8
THE TOP 10 DEFENSIVE TEAMS IN THE COUNTRY
- Virginia 52.7
- Cincinnati 56.8
- Central Florida 60.2
- New Mexico St. 61.9
- SMU 62.3
- Northern Iowa 62.4
- Texas Tech 62.5
- Loyola-Chicago 62.8
- Syracuse 62.8
- Bradley 62.8
THE TOP TO TEAMS IN REBOUNDING MARGIN
- Michigan State Plus-12.1
- North Carolina Plus 11.3
- Duke Plus-10.7
- Wichita State Plus-10.5
- Gonzaga Plus 9.7
- Cincinnati Plus-9.1
- New Mexico St. Plus-8.4
- Texas A&M Plus-8.0
- UC-Irvine Plus 7.7
- New Hampshire Plus 7.6
THE TOP 10 TEAMS IN TOTAL ASSISTS
- Michigan State 24 Games 489
- Iowa 24 Games 452
- Purdue 24 Games 438
- TCU 22 Games 434
- Duke 22 Games 415
- Oakland 23 Games 409
- Creighton 22 Games 407
- Xavier 23 Games 402
- Wichita State 21 Games 401
College Best Bets For Saturday
Editor's note: Home teams listed in CAPS. To bet these games, compare my projected margins of victory with the actual betting liens and then wager accordingly. Home Teams in CAPS. I also reserve the right to change any of these selections should there be late unexpected factors that could alter the outcome.
#6 XAVIER MUSKETEERS (20-3) by 17-18 over Georgetown Hoyas (13-8)—Xavier is one game back of top-ranked Villanova and certainly won't be in any mood to take any prisoners. Georgetown is a bit of a mystery to me but the Hoyas have shown one thing consistently—the inability to beat good teams. The Hoyas are 2-5 in their last seven games and the two wins have come over an absolutely inept St. John's team.
Memphis Tigers (14-8) by 10-11 over EAST CAROLINA PIRATES (8-13)—Coach Tubby Smith noted before the season began that this was a major rebuilding year in Memphis but things are moving the team's way in a quick and positive fashion. The Tigers are 5-2 in their last seven games, playing with discipline and intensity, especially on defense, and are much better than their record. The Pirates are poorly coached and appear to be able to beat on the bad teams on their schedule. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games and the two wins came at the expense of South Florida, one of the least talented teams in the country.
#4 Duke Blue Devils by 16-17 over ST. JOHN'S RED STORM (10-13)—Just what St. John's needed right in the middle of its Big East schedule—a non-conference game against the 4th-ranked Duke. In their last game, the Johnnies lost at home to 6th-ranked Xavier, 73-68, and after Duke the team travels to Philadelphia to tangle with #1-ranked Duke. Duke is at the absolute top of its form right now and will showcase itself to the world at Madison Square Garden in this nationally-televised (FOX) game. St. John's is not as good as it record and should be easy prey for the Blue Devils.
MASSACHUSETTS MINUTEMEN (10-13) by 8-9 over Dayton Flyers (10-11)—When these teams met the first time this season in Dayton UMass prevailed 62-60 as an 8-point underdog and there is little reason to expect a different result as the game shifts to Amherst, where the Minutemen are 9-4 and in their last game, on this same home court, took powerful Rhode Island to the limit before losing to the Rams as a 9.5-point underdog. This is definitely a rebuilding year at Dayton and it is of note the Flyers are a mere 2-7 on the road.
YOU CAN GET MY 300-UNIT SUPER BOWL PLAY FREE SUNDAY BY DOING THIS ONE THING
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Let's cut to the chase.
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- Five or six 25-unit Chairman's Club college or NBA Plays each week.
- All Best Bets Club college and NBA plays (10-15 each week)
- All of March Madness, including the 32 conference tournaments, the entire NCAA Tournament, the entire NIT Tournament and the other minor post seasons tournaments.
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This special Chairman's Club package is Just $279. Monthly subscriptions are available for $159.