Football Forecast - Super Bowl

Volume 19, Edition 22… February 3-4, 2018

Going For Another 300-Unit Super Bowl Win Sunday
12-4 In Last 16, 27-5 With Sides/Totals Since 2001
The "Silver Bullet" Formula Strikes Again

100-Unit College Basketball Blowout Game Of Month
Should Score By 25-30 Points Saturday To Kickoff Weekend

Las Vegas Bookies Loaded With Philadelphia Action
And Pulling For New England To Win And Cover

By Kelso Sturgeon

Relax—it's just another football game. Exciting, but same old same old—same rules and regulations of the regular season and the same incompetent officiating that quite often determines who wins and who loses. Super Bowl #52 will be played Sunday in Minneapolis when the National Football Conference champion Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) take the field to face the American Conference champion New England Patriots (15-3) and the reality of the day is that both teams have the talent to win it. The Patriots remain the favorite at -4.5, with a few -4s being offered, and the total is pretty much a solid 48.5.
The betting line is as honest and hard as it can get. Nobody is trying to middle the game that opened with the Patriots -5.5. If you took +5.5 at the open, there is no reason to turn around and lay the -4.5 since "5" is considered a dead number with less than 2.0% of the games falling on it.
Las Vegas and offshore bookmakers are extremely nervous because of the heavy action received on the Eagles. For instance, a straight up Philadelphia win (forget about the points) would bury some books that have already taken multi-millions of dollars in money-line bets on the Eagles at odds of 9-5. Vegas bookmakers said today they are starting to see some wiseguy action on New England but know in the end they are going to need the Patriots to win and cover.
There is also heavy totals betting, most of it going on "over" 48.5.
There are more than 300 proposition bets available and to give you some idea of where the money is going, here are the top 10 plays from the William Hill sports books.

Top 10 Super Bowl Prop Bets By Dollars Bet

  1. Point spread proposition: Eagles +21.5.
  2. Will there be a safety: No.
  3. Point spread proposition: Patriots +7.5.
  4. Will Tom Brady have a rushing TD? No.
  5. Will both teams have a 100-yard rusher? No.
  6. Blocked field goal/blocked punt returned for TD? No
  7. Point spread proposition: Patriots +3.5.
  8. Point spread proposition: Eagles +10.5
  9. Two Win Most Valuable: Tom Brady
  10. Will Patriots score in every quarter? No.


The only thing Vegas bookmakers are confident of is that wagering on this Super Bowl will be the heaviest ever and will easily eclipse the record $138.5 million handled last year.
The King Of Super Bowl Handicapping Scores Again

It Is Not A Stretch To Proclaim Myself King Of Super Bowl
Handicappers Since No One Does It Better Standing 12-4
In The Last 16 Super Bowls And An Amazing 25-7
In Sides And Totals Since 2001

When Super Bowl #52 is over Sunday I am confident I will once again make another giant winning score with a 300-unit play. How big a score will that be? My average release is rated 15 units, giving you some idea of just how strongly I feel about this year's big game—300 units vs. 15 units. Do the math.
The "Silver Bullet" formula again wins the side and total and the parlay that goes with those two bets.
I am among those who have seen all of the 51 previous Super Bowl games and through the years have been involved in some of history's biggest betting coups on this game—one in mid-six figures. It is no accident I stand 12-4 with sides and 13-3 with totals since 2001—numbers that add up to a rather amazing 25-7 number.
It would be easy to take all the credit for my success but I cannot do that. Yes, I know football, betting lines and what the marriage of the two mean for bettors. That aside my success in the Super Bowl comes with a formula shared with me by former Kansas City Chiefs and Hall of Fame coach Hank Stram, one of the great thinkers and innovative individuals to ever coach in the NFL.
During out television time together Stram, who won Super Bowl IV with the Chiefs who upset the Minnesota Vikings, showed me his formula for picking the winners—both favorites and 'dogs—and his chart revealed he had at that time predicted the winner of every Super Bowl. He was proud if it, and it worked in spectacular fashion.
That formula, which I have used for the past 16 years, is as close to the magic "Silver Bullet" as there ever will be and I am obviously using it again this year. I do not remember a time I was more confident I would take down the cash in the big game—so sure of myself that I am again shooting for the moon with another 300-unit play. It will be 200 units on the winning side 70 units on the total and 30 units on the side/total parlay.
Plus, I will throw in five proposition bets to put a little more icing on the cake.
You can again get the Super Bowl cash with me for the modest price of just $50, charged to your major credit card or to your Pay Pal account. The game will be available on this website and toll free at my office…1-800-755-2255.

Super Bowl Handicapping Hints And Insights
Super Bowl underdogs have 12-4 against the spread (ATS) in the last 16 games, beginning with the 2002 season when New England knocked off the Rams 20-17 as 14-point underdogs. The underdog has won the Super Bowl straight up (SU) seven times in the past 10 years.
New England coach Bill Belichick and Patriots quarterback have been to eight Super Bowls together and won five of those games. A win would tie New England with the Pittsburgh Steelers with six wins in the big game. In last year's Super Bowl win over the Atlanta Falcons, the Patriots came from 25 points down to win in overtime.
It is somewhat ironic no team has won back-to-back Super Bowls since Patriots bet the Eagles 24-14 in the 2005 Super Bowl. Pats vs. Eagles—very interesting.
New England superstar wide-receiver Ron Gronkowski is out of concussion protocol and will play against the Eagles.
Both teams closed out the season at the top of their form. New England 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in its last five games, contests that included beating Jacksonville, 24-20 as a 7.5-point favorite, and Tennessee, 35-14, as a 13.5-point choice. Philadelphia marched through the playoffs, winning both its games as an underdog. The Eagles buried Minnesota, 38-7, as a 3-point home dog in the conference championship game, and before that got the best of favored Atlanta, 15-.
It is of note Brady was his usually outstanding self in the playoffs while Philadelphia got it done with back-up quarterback Nick Foles in charge. As a replacement for superstar Carson Wentz (out with a knee injury) Foles will be the third quarterback in NFL history to start in the Super Bowl having started just three games during the season. The first two led their teams to victory.
While Foles had a reputation of being unable to get it done, he came to life in the two playoff games and in the shocking blowout of Minnesota threw for 352 yards and three touchdowns. He will be playing in the big game with sore ribs but pre-game painkillers will take care of that.

Saturday Basketball Betting Menu

--100-Unit College Blowout Game of the Month.
--25-Unit College Underdog Game of the Week.
--Nationally televised Oklahoma at Texas game highlights 3-0 Best Bets Club day
All these games will be available on the Internet at or toll free at my office…1-800-755-2255. All major credit cards and Pay Pal accepted.


One must always be careful to not overreact to teams play far above or far below their established performance profile. On any give day teams are not as good as they look, nor as bad. For instance powerhouse teams North Carolina and West Virginia have lost three consecutive games but that does not mean they are not very good squads. For certain, few opponents will get rich playing them.
I have thoroughly examined all 351 teams that will be on the betting board for the rest of the season and have posted below the 20 teams my figures say are the best. You may disagree but my figures do not lie and are the reason I am again having an excellent basketball season.
LEGEND FOR RANKINGS: KP—the highly respected KenPom rankings. RPI—the official NCAA rankings. SOS—the team's strength determined by the RPI folks. Teams in the KenPom and RPI ratings are of all 351 teams and listed below show where each team is ranked in each category. For instance Kansas, my 4th-ranked team, is 8th in the KP rankings, 6th in the RPI numbers and have played the 2nd toughest schedule in the country.


  1. VILLANOVA                   20-1                        1st            2nd           39th
  2. VIRGINIA                        21-1                        2nd           1st            20th
  3. PURDUE                         22-2                        3rd           8th           44th
  4. KANSAS                          18-4                        8th           6th           2nd
  5. DUKE                              19-3                        4th           4th           13th
  6. AUBURN                         20-2                        10th         7th           40th
  7. OKLAHOMA                  16-5                        26th         11th         18th
  8. ARIZONA                        19-4                        19th         16th         41st
  9. CINCINNATI                    20-2                        5th           15th         83rd
  10. MICHIGAN STATE          21-3                        6th           23rd         90th
  11. XAVIER                           20-3                        11th         3rd           14th
  12. KENTUCKY                      17-5                        28th         13th         8th
  13. TEXAS TECH                   18-4                        13th         17th         52nd
  14. OHIO STATE                   19-5                        14th         22nd         32nd
  15. NORTH CAROLINA        16-7                        12th         10th         1st
  16. TENNESSEE                     16-5                        9th           12th         9th
  17. LOUISVILLE                    16-6                        31st         19th         23rd
  18. WEST VIRGINIA             16-6                        18th         33rd         49th
  19. RHODE ISLAND             18-3                        34th         9th           42nd
  20. WICHITA STATE             17-5                        20th         26th         61st

A College Basketball Betting Primer


  1. Oklahoma                      90.7
  2. Duke                               90.2
  3. Gonzaga                         88.2
  4. Portland State               88.0
  5. Villanova                        87.8
  6. Creighton                      86.5
  7. TCU                                 86.5
  8. Marshall                         86.2
  9. Arizona State 85.9
  10. UNLV                              85.8


  1. Virginia                           52.7
  2. Cincinnati                      56.8
  3. Central Florida              60.2
  4. New Mexico St.            61.9
  5. SMU                                62.3
  6. Northern Iowa              62.4
  7. Texas Tech                    62.5
  8. Loyola-Chicago             62.8
  9. Syracuse                        62.8
  10. Bradley                         62.8       


  1. Michigan State              Plus-12.1
  2. North Carolina              Plus 11.3
  3. Duke                               Plus-10.7
  4. Wichita State Plus-10.5
  5. Gonzaga                         Plus 9.7
  6. Cincinnati                      Plus-9.1
  7. New Mexico St.            Plus-8.4
  8. Texas A&M                    Plus-8.0
  9. UC-Irvine                       Plus 7.7
  10. New Hampshire            Plus 7.6



  1. Michigan State              24 Games              489
  2. Iowa                                24 Games              452
  3. Purdue                           24 Games              438
  4. TCU                                 22 Games              434
  5. Duke                               22 Games              415
  6. Oakland                         23 Games              409
  7. Creighton                      22 Games              407
  8. Xavier                             23 Games              402
  9. Wichita State 21 Games              401


College Best Bets For Saturday
Editor's note: Home teams listed in CAPS. To bet these games, compare my projected margins of victory with the actual betting liens and then wager accordingly. Home Teams in CAPS. I also reserve the right to change any of these selections should there be late unexpected factors that could alter the outcome.

#6 XAVIER MUSKETEERS (20-3) by 17-18 over Georgetown Hoyas (13-8)—Xavier is one game back of top-ranked Villanova and certainly won't be in any mood to take any prisoners. Georgetown is a bit of a mystery to me but the Hoyas have shown one thing consistently—the inability to beat good teams. The Hoyas are 2-5 in their last seven games and the two wins have come over an absolutely inept St. John's team.

Memphis Tigers (14-8) by 10-11 over EAST CAROLINA PIRATES (8-13)—Coach Tubby Smith noted before the season began that this was a major rebuilding year in Memphis but things are moving the team's way in a quick and positive fashion. The Tigers are 5-2 in their last seven games, playing with discipline and intensity, especially on defense, and are much better than their record. The Pirates are poorly coached and appear to be able to beat on the bad teams on their schedule. They are 2-8 in their last 10 games and the two wins came at the expense of South Florida, one of the least talented teams in the country.

#4 Duke Blue Devils by 16-17 over ST. JOHN'S RED STORM (10-13)—Just what St. John's needed right in the middle of its Big East schedule—a non-conference game against the 4th-ranked Duke. In their last game, the Johnnies lost at home to 6th-ranked Xavier, 73-68, and after Duke the team travels to Philadelphia to tangle with #1-ranked Duke. Duke is at the absolute top of its form right now and will showcase itself to the world at Madison Square Garden in this nationally-televised (FOX) game. St. John's is not as good as it record and should be easy prey for the Blue Devils.

MASSACHUSETTS MINUTEMEN (10-13) by 8-9 over Dayton Flyers (10-11)—When these teams met the first time this season in Dayton UMass prevailed 62-60 as an 8-point underdog and there is little reason to expect a different result as the game shifts to Amherst, where the Minutemen are 9-4 and in their last game, on this same home court, took powerful Rhode Island to the limit before losing to the Rams as a 9.5-point underdog. This is definitely a rebuilding year at Dayton and it is of note the Flyers are a mere 2-7 on the road.


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Let's cut to the chase.
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