Basketball Forecast - February 23-24

Kelso Sturgeon Basketball Forecast Newsletter

Volume 19, Edition 24...February 23-24, 2018

Going For 2nd Straight 200-Unit College Winner Saturday
Won 200-Unit Game Last Week As Mississippi State Crushed Arch-Rival Ole Miss By 17 Points

175-Unit Big Ten Triple Crown Closes Out Regular Season Sunday...Went 7-0 This Past
Thursday With 175-Unit PAC-12 TC

8-Point Betting Guide For Winning During College Conference Tournaments And NCAA

50-Unit NBA Game Of The Week Scores Tonight As Winning Run In Pros Continues

By Kelso Sturgeon

Time is running out for most college basketball teams to make a run for a spot in the NCAA Tournament and that alone makes this one of the most important weekends of the entire college season. The Big Ten Conference and eight mid-majors end their seasons on Saturday and Sunday and head into their college tournaments beginning on Wednesday. For the mid-majors it is win or go home, since only the winner their post-season tournaments will get an automatic bid to the big dance.

There are 123 college games scheduled (99 on Saturday and 24 on Sunday) and the NCAA is watching, with the outcomes of many games determining where each team will be seeded in the post-season showdowns. First place in several conferences are also at stake.

In the Big 12, #6 Texas Tech (10-5) and #8 Kansas (11-4) are 1-2 in the standings and meet Saturday in Lubbock. In the Big Ten #2 Michigan State, #9 Purdue and #16 Ohio State are all in the running for the conference title. Ditto for #3 Villanova and #4 Xavier in the Big East and in most other conferences the leading teams are so close none can afford to lose.

It is safe to say, we will see college basketball at its best this weekend and that means a world of extremely competitive games. Just keep in mind three major factors are going to determine the outcome of most games - (1) talent, (2) current form and (3) the home court bias.
I am confidently going for the big money again on both Saturday and Sunday.

Going For 2nd Straight 200-Unit College Winner Saturday
Won 200-Unit Game Last Week As Mississippi State
Crushed Arch-Rival Ole Miss By 17 Points

As competitive as many games will be Saturday, there are also several total mismatches on the schedule, pitting teams playing their best in hopes of making the NCAA Tournament and teams that are tired, worn out and just thankful their seasons are about over.

This sets the stage for my second straight 200-unit winner and I am expecting the team I am releasing to win just as easily as did last Saturday's winning 200-unit play on Mississippi State (-7.5) which crushed arch-rival Ole Miss, 79-62. This game is being played under the exact circumstances as was that one and my figures say it also has a 90% to win.

You can get this 200-unit play for just $35, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal and head into Sunday's 175-Unit Big Ten Triple Crown loaded for bear.

175-Unit Big Ten Triple Crown Closes Out Regular Season Sunday...Went 7-0 This Past
Thursday With 175-Unit PAC-12 TC

The Big Ten Conference ends its regular season today and then heads for its post tournament at Madison Square Garden which begins Wednesday. This late in the season there are many issues yet to be decided, including the conference championship and invitations to the NCAA Tournament.

These situations put it all on the line with every game played and has created the opportunity to again make one of the biggest scores of the season. Today it is again time to win three 25 unit bets, three 25-unit 2-team parlays and one 25-unit 3-teamer.

To refresh your memory this past Thursday night I won this same bet with my PAC-12 Triple Crown, going a perfect 7-0 with seven 25-unit plays, including winning four giant parlays. I broke the bank that night and intend to do the same thing in the Big Ten today.

Everything is in place for a 150-unit Big Ten Conference Triple Crown and I am confident I will sweep the board and again break the bank with Sunday's wager. I have found big edges in three of the five games scheduled - edges that all but insure the 7-0

Sunday's Big Ten Schedule
Michigan State Spartans (27-3) at Wisconsin Badgers (14-16)
Illinois Fighting Illini (13-17) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (13-17)
Minnesota Golden Gophers (15-15) at Purdue Boilermakers (25-5)
Penn State Nittany Lions (9-11) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (21-9)
Northwestern Wildcats (15-15) at Iowa Hawkeyes (12-18)

Here is what makes up today's Triple Crown...
--Three 25-unit plays on the three winners.
--Three 25-unit 2-team parlays that return 13-5 odds for you money.
--A single 25-unit 3-teamer that will return odds of 6-1.

You can win this big money play with me for just $35, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal Pal. Get the Triple Crown here online or toll free at my office - 1-800-755-2255.

8-Point Guide For Beating College Tournaments

  1. Does tournament playing site favor any team. For instance the Metro Atlantic tournament will be played at the Times-Union Center in Albay - the home floor of the Albany Great Danes - and the Mountain West Conference will be played at the Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas - the home court of UNLV. Also keep in mind some tournaments play the first round on the home floor of teams with the bettor record and then shift to a neutral site.
  2. How a team has performed on the road, or on neutral floors, during the regular season offers important insight into how it will perform at tournament time. For the record Auburn is 10-3 away from home, Duke is 10-4 while Kentucky is 5-7 and Vanderbilt 0-12.
  3. Strength of schedule is a vital part of the winning equation. Here are the teams that have played the strongest schedules of all the 351 teams. In order, here are the teams that have played the toughest schedules in the country. Vanderbilt, North Carolina, Kentucky, Kansas, Xavier, Texas A&M, Virginia, Mississippi, Alabama and Temple. At the other end of the spectrum, in 51st place., is Alabama A&M.
  4. Current form is extremely important. Two perfect examples of this are Oklahoma (16-11) and Utah (17-9). The Sooners opened the season 14-2 and earned a national ranking but in their last 10 games are 2-8 straight up (SU) and 1-9 against the spread (ATS). As for Utah, the Runnin' Utes opened their season respectably but all at once seemed to wake up and stand 4-0 in their last four games and two contests back took Arizona to the money in Tucson before losing 74-73 to a Wildcat team that had to hit 64.4% of its field goals to win.
  5. Check and then double-check the injury list to make certain there are no key players out with injuries. For instance, what is the status of Duke superstar forward Marvin Bagley (21.17 points, 11.42 rebounds per game) who has missed the team's last three games with a knee injury? Will Notre Dame finally get back superstar forward Bonzie Colson (21.4 points, 10.4 rebounds per game) who has missed the last 14 games with a foot injury?
  6. Coaches earn their keep at tournament time and it simply a matter of fact those that have won at tournament time year after year are strong candidates to keep right on doing so.
  7. The spacing of games is extremely important. The winner of the Big East Tournament has to win four games in five days to get the automatic invite to the NCAA Tournament. Tiring, to say the least and teams with depth always have a slight edge. The team with the most overall quality depth is Wichita State which runs 11 players deep.
  8. An underdog that pulls off a major upset is a strong candidate to lose its next game.

There are many elements to winning at tournament time but these eight basics should arm you for success.

The Most Fantastic Basketball Games of the Year

You Are Certainly Going to Watch Them,
Now, You Can WIN Them, Too!

College Conference – NCAA Tournaments – NIT, CIT & CBI

Basketball Has Just Crossed the Threshold to Crunchtime – The Crucial Season Enders.

Now is when the mid majors are strategizing like crazy to steal a signature win that will get them into the Big Dance. Now is when some of the better teams are looking ahead to the conference  championships. Now is when impact players on every level are starting to mature and shock the unwary. I’m ready! I’ve seen a lot. I KNOW a lot. And I WIN a lot!

Conference Tournaments Start Monday, February 26 – The showdown games between traditional rivals who know each other and share a history like North Carolina-Duke, Fla.-Kentucky, UCLA-Ariz., Ohio St.-Michigan St. These games are about local bragging rights and payback time. So throw out the power points. The better team may still win but the angrier team covers!

The Big Dance – The NCAA Tournament!

The NCAA Tournament is the most heavily wagered event in all sports and most of those bucks are put up by amateur or once-a-year bettors who aren’t up on all their stuff. Without the care and study we put into every game, these “square money” bettors often bite on inflated lines on the favorite, lay too many points and give us extra points on the dog. The First Four starts on March 13.


The NCAA has to pass up a lot of good teams, and those teams go right into the “lesser” NIT. CBI and CIT Tournament, who schedule their games on nights when the NCAA is idle.

And all I want for the entire package is $149
Conference Tournament Game of the Year
Last year: Iowa State (-4.5) over TCU 84-63 WIN
Tournament Game of the year
Last Year: Arizona (-5) over St. Mary's 69-60 WIN

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Wednesday, February 28
Big Ten Conference
At Madison Square Garden, New York City
Championship Game March 4

Ohio Valley Conference
At Ford Center, Evansville, Indiana
Championship Game March 3

Thursday, March 1
Missouri Valley Conference
At Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Championship Game March 4

Metro Atlantic Conference
At Times-Union Center, Albany, NY
Championship Game March 5
Also Home Court Of Participant Albany

Friday, March 2
Horizon League
At Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Championship Game March 6

West Coast Conference
At Orleans Arena, Las Vegas
Championship Game March 6

Southern Conference
At U.S. Cellular Center, Asheville, NC
Championship Game March 5

Saturday, March 3
Colonial Athletic Association
At North Charleston Coliseum in Charleston, SC
Championship Game March 6

Summit League
At Sanford Premier Center, Sioux Falls, SD
Championship Game March 6

Saturday's Best Bet College Winners - February, February 24

(Because these selections are made 2-3 days in Advance, Kelso has the option to change any of them should circumstances merit it) Home Teams In CAPS...All Plays 5 Units

TCU HORNED FROGS (19-9) by 8-9 over Baylor Bears (17-11) - You can take it to the bank TCU, which won the NIT championship last year, and intends to make it to the NCAA Tournament this time around and will be working overtime to avoid that 7-game losing swoon that cost them a trip to the Big Dance last year. TCU won the first meeting in Waco, 81-78. Both teams are playing well but the home court bias (13-3) gets it done in this one.

BRADLEY BRAVES (19-11) by 10-11 over Indiana State Sycamores (12-17) - This is the last game of the season for both these teams and my figures say Bradley has all the edges it takes to win. The Braves, who are enjoying quite a revival their basketball program, are 13-1 at home and beat Indiana State, 81-73, earlier this season in Terre Haute.

GEORGIA BULLDOGS (15-12) by 9-10 over LSU Tigers (16-11) - Georgia has been quite inconsistent all season but my figures say it is far better than its record. The heat is one if Georgia hopes to keep alive any hopes to make the BIG Dance and I expect the Bulldogs to pull out all the stops to get it done against an LSU team it beat by a single point, 61-60, in Baton Rouge earlier in the season.

Wichita State Shockers (22-5) by 8-9 over SMU MUSTANGS - Wichita State is positioned to win the American Athletic Conference basketball championship in its first season as a member and it all begins in Dallas today. The Shockers need to run the table in its last three games - at SMU, at Central Florida and at home against Cincinnati - to win the title and they have the talent to do just that, standing 8-3 on the road. There also is a revenge factor involved here as the Mustangs beat the Shockers in Wichita, 83-78, back in mid-January on a night in which they hit 63.8% of their shots from the floor. That won't happen in this one.

Kansas State Wildcats (20-8) by 11-12 over OKLAHOMA SOONERS (16-11) - Kansas State is battling hard for a spot in the NCAA Tournament, is playing its best basketball right now and is catching Oklahoma on the deep downside of its form. The Sooners started the season 12-1 but have simply fell apart, for whatever the reason, and are 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games. K-State won the first meeting in Manhattan 87-69 and there is nothing to predict a different outcome in this spot.