Basketball Forecast - NCAA Tournament

Kelso Sturgeon Basketball Forecast Newsletter

Volume 19, Edition 26...March 15-16, 2018

50-Unit Bet Launches NCAA Big Dance Thursday

Get Entire NCAA, NIT, CBI, CIT Tournaments For Just $149

Villanova 9-2 Favorite To Win It All, Virginia 5-1
Bettors, Bookmakers Say Only 17 Of The 64 Teams
Competing In NCAA Tournament Can Win It and Wichita State (30-1) & Kentucky (40-1) Two Legitimate Longshots With Talent To Win It All

NCAA Tournament Handicapping Guide Begins With Fact #1 Seeds Are 132-0 Against #16 Seeds And #2 Seeds 124-8 Against #15 Seeds

By Kelso Sturgeon

Just the facts, please. I am pleased to report I closed out the college conference on a 26-7-1 run and opened NCAA play with the winners of both play-in games - underdog St. Bonaventure over UCLA and Radford over LIU-Brooklyn - on another 4-0 night. And lest one thinks I am ignoring the NBA at this lucrative pay-attention time of its season I am on a 9-2 with my last 11 Bets Basketball Club selections. The long hours and hard work of the regular season is now paying its biggest dividends. Accumulated knowledge is king.

Shifting gears into the four post-season tournaments - the NCAA, NIT, College Basketball Invitation (CBI) and the College Insider Tournament (CIT) - does require some adjustments. For instance, in the college conference tournaments one has the advantage of current history since these teams have all played at least once - and usually twice - during the regular season. While some previous post-season tournament opponents may have crossed paths during the regular season in either a home game or a road game most are strangers from different conferences of differing strengths.

And the unpredictable element of the neutral floor is in play through the entire NCAA Tournament and it can become an unnerving factor for some teams, even though the playing court is a carbon copy of they one they play on at home. It is safe to say, teams with outstanding road and neutral floor records have an edge in most games.

It is complicated to unravel what it means to come from the the Big 12 Conference (ranked the toughest in the country, via the RPI standard) and to be meeting a team from the 6th-ranked Big Ten. Hopefully the conference RPI ratings at the end of this column will offer some help in that matter. Just remember any little edge you can find often is the difference between winning and losing.

You will note from one of the headlines above I say Wichita State (25-7) and Kentucky (24-10) are two live longshots to win it - Wichita State because of its talent, experience and depth, which runs 11 players deep, and Kentucky because its blue-chip talent has finally figured it out and is finally playing up to preseason expectations.

50-Unit Play Highlights 4-0 NCAA Thursday

I am opening the Big Dance with four NCAA bets - one at 50 units and the other three at 25 - and am confident I will again go 4-0. The 50-unit play will be on a talented team that is finally going to play up to its potential and that means it will be playing its best game of the season. The team understands what is at stake, has  great practices this week, is focused and is taking the floor to win.

The focus factor and the factor of taking the floor to win has already proved profitable in the NCAA. Those two factors put St. Bonaventure in the winner's circle for us when as a 2.5-point underdog took it to a very cocky UCLA and knocked off the Bruins, 65-58, in one of the play-in games in Dayton. One could tell from the get-go in that game the Bonnies came to get the money and intended to do whatever it took to do just that.
The 50-unit play today is on a team in the same profile and I expect it to do a St. Bonaventure job on its opponent. You can win this game, plus three more 25-unit plays. For just $50,

Your BEST BET is to get on board with my college post-season package that includes the entire NCAA, NIT and the two minor tournaments. You can get the entire post-season package, including today's four games, for just $149 and that means you can save a fortune. Again, all major credit cards and Pay Pal accepted.

EXTREMELY IMPORTANT
I Am Going To Release At Least Three 100-Unit Plays
And At Least Six 50-Unit Bets During The Tournament
Please Check This Website Every Day For Betting Menu

Villanova Emerges In Las Vegas As 9-2 Favorite To Win NCAA Tournament...Cavs 2nd Choice At 5-1

There are some who suggest any of the teams that make the NCAA Tournament can win it. Nice feel-good theory but oh, so wrong. While the regular season basically is a period of at least some parity, with more than a few stunning upsets, while the Big Dance is all about disparity. There is a reason no #16 seed has ever beating a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament (see rundown below). Call it 128-0 in favor of #1.

I can promise you the North Carolina Central Eagles (19-15) who are listed at 10,000-1 odds to win it all will never beat teams of substance and blue-chip talent such as Virginia, Villanova, Duke or North Carolina, and that is just two name four teams from their neighborhood, in the NCAA.

For the record, the Eagles meet meet Texas Southern (15-18) tonight in Dayton in a play-in game and are a 5.5-point underdog in this one and whichever team wins will get to play #1 seeded Xavier (28-5) 48 hours later in Nashville.

It is important to understand I am speaking about winning straight up. Getting covers is a a different world altogether. Meantime, I have listed below the 17 teams bookmakers and bettors believe have the best chances of winning it all. I agree - no questions asked.

Current Odds Of Leading Candidates To Win NCAA Tournament
(Odds From West Gate Super Book, Las Vegas, NV)

TEAMODDSRECORDRPISOS
Villanova Wildcats9-230-4211th
Virginia Cavaliers5-131-266th
Duke Blue Devils6-126-71616th
Michigan State Spartans6-129-41485th
Arizona Wildcats12-127-71351st
Cincinnati Bearcats15-130-4645th
Kansas Jayhawks15-127-752nd
Michigan Wolverines15-128-71256th
North Carolina Tar Heels15-125-1041st
Purdue Boilermakers15-128-6841st
Xavier Musketeers20-128-5312th
Gonzaga Bulldogs25-130-421125th
Wichita State Shockers30-125-71629th
Auburn Tigers40-125-71547th
Florida Gators40-120-124624th
Kentucky Wildcats40-124-10104th
Tennessee Volunteers40-125-8818th
W. Virginia Mountaineers40-124-102737th

 

Number 1 Seeds In NCAA Tournament Perfect 132-0...#2 Against #15 124-8

  • The No. 1 seed is 132-0 against the No. 16 seed (1.000)
  • The No. 2 seed is 124-8 against the No. 15 seed (.939)
  • The No. 3 seed is 111-21 against the No. 14 seed (.841)
  • The No. 4 seed is 106-26 against the No. 13 seed (.803)
  • The No. 5 seed is 85-47 against the No. 12 seed (.644)
  • The No. 6 seed is 83-49 against the No. 11 seed (.629)
  • The No. 7 seed is 81-51 against the No. 10 seed (.614)
  • The No. 8 seed is 67-65 against the No. 9 seed (.508)
  •  

Conference RPI Rankings

 

Rank

Conference

Record - All

Non-Conf

Avg. RPI

Avg. SOS

SOS

Teams

  

1

  Big 12

 204-121 (63%)

 105-22 (83%)

 0.5789

 0.5726

2

10

  

2

  Big East

 200-122 (62%)

 101-23 (81%)

 0.5770

 0.5718

3

10

  

3

  Atlantic Coast

 299-188 (61%)

 150-39 (79%)

 0.5754

 0.5712

4

15

  

4

  Southeastern

 271-183 (60%)

 132-44 (75%)

 0.5744

 0.5755

1

14

  

5

  Pacific-12

 223-163 (58%)

 104-44 (70%)

 0.5533

 0.5554

5

12

  

6

  Big Ten

 270-184 (59%)

 131-45 (74%)

 0.5501

 0.5478

6

14

  

7

  American Athletic

 222-164 (58%)

 105-47 (69%)

 0.5428

 0.5421

7

12

  

8

  Missouri Valley

 167-143 (54%)

 69-45 (61%)

 0.5259

 0.5231

8

10

  

9

  Mountain West

 185-160 (54%)

 76-51 (60%)

 0.5200

 0.5198

10

11

  

10

  Mid-American

 194-177 (52%)

 75-58 (56%)

 0.5098

 0.5070

11

12

  

11

  Atlantic 10

 229-221 (51%)

 90-82 (52%)

 0.5094

 0.5199

9

14

  

12

  Colonial Athletic

 151-155 (49%)

 52-56 (48%)

 0.5022

 0.5021

13

10

  

13

  West Coast

 161-152 (51%)

 62-53 (54%)

 0.5005

 0.5049

12

10

  

14

  Western Athletic

 113-124 (48%)

 50-61 (45%)

 0.4906

 0.4945

14

8

  

15

  Conference USA

 208-216 (49%)

 71-79 (47%)

 0.4859

 0.4891

15

14

  

16

  Southern

 144-158 (48%)

 45-59 (43%)

 0.4839

 0.4852

16

10


  

17

  Summit

 108-118 (48%)

 45-55 (45%)

 0.4823

 0.4827

17

8

 

 

18

  Sun Belt

 166-172 (49%)

 67-73 (48%)

 0.4815

 0.4753

22

11

 

 

19

  Metro Atlantic

 164-187 (47%)

 55-78 (41%)

 0.4806

 0.4819

18

11

 

 

20

  Big Sky

 168-191 (47%)

 49-72 (40%)

 0.4806

 0.4786

21

12

  

21

  Ohio Valley

 168-188 (47%)

 53-73 (42%)

 0.4796

 0.4789

20

12

  

22

  Big West

 121-146 (45%)

 42-67 (39%)

 0.4765

 0.4816

19

9

  

23

  America East

 130-144 (47%)

 51-65 (44%)

 0.4674

 0.4653

23

9

  

24

  Ivy League

 101-123 (45%)

 42-64 (40%)

 0.4622

 0.4643

25

8

  

25

  Big South

 142-180 (44%)

 43-81 (35%)

 0.4597

 0.4622

26

11

  

26

  Horizon League

 134-173 (44%)

 37-76 (33%)

 0.4578

 0.4644

24

10

 

 

27

  Patriot League

 138-167 (45%)

 39-68 (36%)

 0.4564

 0.4548

28

10

 

 

28

  Northeast

 134-171 (44%)

 37-74 (33%)

 0.4560

 0.4509

29

10

 

 

29

  Southland

 154-206 (43%)

 30-82 (27%)

 0.4470

 0.4477

30

13

 

 

30

  Atlantic Sun

 93-138 (40%)

 30-75 (29%)

 0.4468

 0.4596

27

8

  

31

  Mid-Eastern

 139-261 (35%)

 23-145 (14%)

 0.4113

 0.4242

31

13

  

32

  SW Athletic

 105-210 (33%)

 8-113 (7%)

 0.4036

 0.4160

32

10