Basketball Forecast - Sweet 16 Edition

Kelso Sturgeon Basketball Forecast Newsletter

Volume 19, Edition 27...March 22-23, 2018

12-5 In NCAA Tournament Thus Far...71% Winners

100-Unit NCAA Tournament Game Of Year Wins Thursday

50-Unit NCAA Upset Game Of Week Scores Friday

Blue Devils Now 3-1 Favorite To Win NCAA Championship
With Villanova 2nd Choice At 9-2, Zags & Kentucky 3rd At 7-1

Vegas Books Still Have Golden State Odds-On Favorite To Win NBA Championship...
Guess They Forgot About Red-Hot Trio Of Houston, Portland And Utah

Baseball Begins Next Thursday With All 30 Teams In Action...Astros 2-1 To Win It All

By Kelso Sturgeon

I am pleased to report I head into the Sweet 16 round of the always unpredictable NCAA Tournament hitting 71% winners (12-5) since play began 10 days ago and on Thursday am going for one of my biggest scores of the post-season with my annual 100-unit NCAA Game of the Year. I will follow that up on Friday with my 50-unit NCAA Upset Game of the Week. I will have to wait and see what to do in the Elite Eight on Saturday and Sunday but if things work out as I see them it will be another 100-unit bet in the semifinals.

In looking at the four regionals, it appears the Kentucky Wildcats have the best chance - note I did not say easiest since nothing is easy at this stage of the game - to come out on top in the South and advance to the Final Four. The Wildcats are 6.5-point favorites over a decent Kansas State team in game one and would then face either Nevada or Loyola-Chicago in the semifinals.

In the other three regionals my figures say any of the four participants in each can win them and make it to the Final Four. Regardless it is certainly going to be a a challenging Sweet 16 round but, as noted, I intend to crush it with my big game plays and then some. I will use no less than two games on Thursday and Friday and maybe as many as three.

All NCAA and other basketball tournament plays are available each day here online for just $125 through the NCAA Title Game on April 2 - or toll free at the my office, 1-800-755-2255. All major credit cards and Pay Pal are accepted and, as always, the price is right.

Just a reminder I have been on quite a roll in basketball, coming out of the college conference tournaments with a 27-6-1 mark and now that 12-5 figure in the NCAA. That means I am 39-11-1 in those post season games, hitting 78% winners. Please note I will also be firing away each day in the NIT, the NBA, the College Basketball Invitational and the College Insider Tournaments as I continue to prove winners can come from anywhere.


Thursday, March 22
South Regional In Atlanta
#5 Kentucky Wildcats (24-11) -6.5 vs. #9 Kansas State Wildcats (24-11)
#7 Nevada Wolf Pack (29-7) -2 vs. #11 Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (30-5)
West Regional In Los Angeles
#3 Michigan (30-7) -3 vs. #7 Texas A&M Aggies (22-12)
#4 Gonzaga Bulldogs (32-4) -6 vs. #9 Florida State Seminoles (22-11)

One of these eight teams so has so many edges over its opponent I will not be surprised when it wins as a big-time blowout. You can win my 100-unit NCAA Game of the Year - a contest you can bet with 100% confidence - for just $45, In addition to the 100-unit play I will be releasing a second game at the 25-unit level.

Friday, March 23
East Regional In Boston
#1 Villanova Wildcats (32-4) -5.5 vs. #5 West Virginia Mountaineers (26-10)
#2 Purdue Boilermakers (30-6) -1 vs. #3 Texas Tech Red Raiders (26-9)
Midwest Regional In Omaha
#1 Kansas Jayhawks (29-7) -4.5 vs. #5 Clemson Tigers (25-9)
#2 Duke Blue Devils (27-7) -11.5 vs. Syracuse Orange (23-13)

The Friday NCAA menu finds these eight teams in action, and it is no secret any of the eight could win and advance to the Final Four. There is one particular game in which the underdog should be the favorite. That dog grades out as a straight up 6-7-point winner and I am releasing it as my 50-Unit NCAA Underdog Play of the Week. You can win this game, plus an additional 25-unit game, for just $35


Current Odds To Win NCAA Championship

Duke Blue Devils27-73-1
Villanova Wildcats32-49-2
Gonzaga Bulldogs32-47-1
Kentucky Wildcats24-117-1
Michigan Wolverines30-78-1
Kansas Jayhawks29-78-1
Purdue Boilermakers30-615-1
West Virginia Mountaineers26-1015-1
Texas Tech Red Raiders26-920-1
Clemson Tigers25-925-1
Nevada Wolf Pack29-725-1
Texas A&M Aggies22-1230-1
Kansas State Wildcats24-1130-1
Florida State Seminoles22-1150-1
Syracuse Orange23-1375-1

12-5...71% Winners...In NCAA Heading Into Sweet 16

3/18...25 Units...Syracuse (+9.5) 55, Michigan State 53 (Won)
3/18...25 Units...MD-Baltimore County (+10.5) 43, Kansas State 50 (Won)
3/17...50 Units...Loyola-Chicago (+4.5) 63, Tennessee 62 (Won)
3/17...25 Units...Gonzaga (-4) 90, Ohio State 84 (Won)
3/17...25 Units...Texas Tech (-1.5) 69, Florida 66 (Won)
3/17...25 Units...Kansas (-4.5) 83, Seton Hall 79 (Lost)
3/16...25 Units...Kansas State (+2.5) 69, Creighton 59 (Won)
3/16...25 Units...Wichita State (-13.5) 75, Marshall 81 (Lost)
3/16...25 Units...Arkansas (+2) 49, Butler 62 (Lost)
3/16...25 Units...New Mexico State (+4.5) 68, Clemson 79 (Lost)
3/15...25 Units...Tennessee (-11.5) 73, Wright State 47 (Won)
3/15...25 Units...Kansas (-13.5) 76, Penn 60 (Won)
3/15...25 Units...Kentucky (-4.5) 78, Davidson 73 Won)
3/15...50 Units...Houston (-4) 67, San Diego State 65 (Lost)
3/14...15 Units...Texas Southern (-5) 64, N.C. Central 46 (Won)
3/13...25 Units...Radford (-5) 71, LIU-Brooklyn 61 (Won)
3/13...25 Units...St. Bonaventure (+2.5) 65, UCLA 58 (Won)

Warriors Hurting, Jazz, Rockets, Trail Blazers And Raptors Exploding.

A status report on the NBA, where each team has 11-12 games left in the regular season, tells us the Golden State Warriors (53-18) remain the odds-on favorites to win another championship, despite the fact they are 2-4 in their last six games while playing without three All-Stars, all out with injuries.

On the sidelines indefinitely are guard Stephen Curry (ankle injury) who averages 26.3 points, 5.1 rebounds and 6-2 assists per game, forward Kevin Durant ribs) who averages 26.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game and guard Klay Thompson (thumb) who has numbers of 19.7, 3.4 and 1.9.  One must pay attention to their returns, which could come any day.

It also must be noted four NBA teams certain to challenge Golden State are absolutely on fire heading to the money. The Toronto Raptors are 19-2 in their last 21 games, the Utah Jazz have come from nowhere to go 18-3 in their last 21, the Houston Rockets are backing up from no one, standing 20-1 in their last 21 and 28-3 in their last 31 and then we have the Portland Trail Blazers who currently are on a 13-1 run and are 12-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games.

It also must be noted Cleveland is going to improve dramatically with the return from injury of 6019 superstar power forward Kevin Love (17.9, 9.3, 1.7 per game), who just took his place on the floor after being out 21 games with a broken hand and scored 18 points in 25 minutes.

Expected to also rejoin the team this week are guard Rodney Hood (15.1, 2.8, 1.6) and back-up center forward Triston Thompson (6.3, 6.5). Thompson has been out with an ankle injury and Hood has been side lined with a back problem. There is no word when the Cavaliers will get back back-up forward Larry Nance (9.3, 7.0).

In the world of NBA numbers bettors need to take not winning is one thing, covering quite another. For instance the Cleveland Cavaliers are 431-29 straight up (SU) but just 23-47-1 ATS, meaning that while they are winning 58.6% of their games they are covering in only 33.3% of them. At the other end of the spectrum we find the Brooklyn Nets (23-48) are 40-30-1 ATS, meaning they win but 32.4% of the time but cover in 57.1% of their games.

The best cover teams in the NBA are the Boston Celtics (41-26-3 ATS...61.9%) and the Portland Trail Blazers (39-25-6...60.9%). The worst cover team is the aforementioned Cleveland Cavaliers. If you are a totals player, 60% of the New Orleans games go over the number.

Baseball Begins In Eight Days With All 30 Teams In Action...Houston Astros 2-1 To Win It All

Major League Baseball launches it season in just eight days, on Thursday, March 29, and all 30 teams will be in action on opening day. As most of you know I have usually had great money-winning baseball, including the last eight, and am set to go with my baseball services, feature sides, totals and parlays. I certainly intend to hit the ground winning next week.

The defending world champion Houston Astros are the solid 2-1 favorites to get the money in their second straight World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers - the team Houston beat in last season's World Series - are the second choice at 5-1, followed by the Cleveland Indians and New York Yankees at 6-1. The Cubs are 7-1 and the Nationals 8-1.

If you feel real lucky you can get 2000-1 for your money on the Miami Marlins, who having been destroyed by their new ownership (former New York Yankee Derek Jeter in particular), are predicted to win a MLB low of 64.5 games this season. Leading in that category are the Astros who are projected to win 96.5 after going 101-61 last season. They are followed by Cleveland and the Los Angeles Dodgers 95.5 wins.

Why Houston Again?

I am one who is always looking for a potential winner at a decent price in futures baseball betting but not this time around. The Houston Astros are all class, power and pitching and that is where my money as gone. They have everything it takes to win it all. They have outstanding hitting and led MLB in hitting last season with a .282 team batting average. Everything says they should repeat.

As for pitching, Houston's five-man rotation was already in preseason form in spring straining. Here is the starting rotation, in order of their appearances, with last years figures.

  1. RH Justin Verlander (15-8, with an ERA of 3.36)
  2. LH Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90)
  3. RH Gerrit Cole (acquired from Pittsburgh) (12-12, 4.26)
  4. RH Lance McCullers  Jr (7-4, 4.25)
  5. RH Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62)

As noted all five pitchers have been lights out in spring training and should dominate from day one.

You can click here to sign up now for my 2018 Best Bets Baseball Club at the Early Bird price of just $199 for the season.