Basketball Forecast - Sweet 16 Edition
Kelso Sturgeon Basketball Forecast Newsletter
Volume 19, Edition 27...March 22-23, 2018
12-5 In NCAA Tournament Thus Far...71% Winners
Blue Devils Now 3-1 Favorite To Win NCAA Championship
|Duke Blue Devils||27-7||3-1|
|West Virginia Mountaineers||26-10||15-1|
|Texas Tech Red Raiders||26-9||20-1|
|Nevada Wolf Pack||29-7||25-1|
|Texas A&M Aggies||22-12||30-1|
|Kansas State Wildcats||24-11||30-1|
|Florida State Seminoles||22-11||50-1|
12-5...71% Winners...In NCAA Heading Into Sweet 16
3/18...25 Units...Syracuse (+9.5) 55, Michigan State 53 (Won)
3/18...25 Units...MD-Baltimore County (+10.5) 43, Kansas State 50 (Won)
3/17...50 Units...Loyola-Chicago (+4.5) 63, Tennessee 62 (Won)
3/17...25 Units...Gonzaga (-4) 90, Ohio State 84 (Won)
3/17...25 Units...Texas Tech (-1.5) 69, Florida 66 (Won)
3/17...25 Units...Kansas (-4.5) 83, Seton Hall 79 (Lost)
3/16...25 Units...Kansas State (+2.5) 69, Creighton 59 (Won)
3/16...25 Units...Wichita State (-13.5) 75, Marshall 81 (Lost)
3/16...25 Units...Arkansas (+2) 49, Butler 62 (Lost)
3/16...25 Units...New Mexico State (+4.5) 68, Clemson 79 (Lost)
3/15...25 Units...Tennessee (-11.5) 73, Wright State 47 (Won)
3/15...25 Units...Kansas (-13.5) 76, Penn 60 (Won)
3/15...25 Units...Kentucky (-4.5) 78, Davidson 73 Won)
3/15...50 Units...Houston (-4) 67, San Diego State 65 (Lost)
3/14...15 Units...Texas Southern (-5) 64, N.C. Central 46 (Won)
3/13...25 Units...Radford (-5) 71, LIU-Brooklyn 61 (Won)
3/13...25 Units...St. Bonaventure (+2.5) 65, UCLA 58 (Won)
Warriors Hurting, Jazz, Rockets, Trail Blazers And Raptors Exploding.
A status report on the NBA, where each team has 11-12 games left in the regular season, tells us the Golden State Warriors (53-18) remain the odds-on favorites to win another championship, despite the fact they are 2-4 in their last six games while playing without three All-Stars, all out with injuries.
On the sidelines indefinitely are guard Stephen Curry (ankle injury) who averages 26.3 points, 5.1 rebounds and 6-2 assists per game, forward Kevin Durant ribs) who averages 26.6 points, 6.8 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game and guard Klay Thompson (thumb) who has numbers of 19.7, 3.4 and 1.9. One must pay attention to their returns, which could come any day.
It also must be noted four NBA teams certain to challenge Golden State are absolutely on fire heading to the money. The Toronto Raptors are 19-2 in their last 21 games, the Utah Jazz have come from nowhere to go 18-3 in their last 21, the Houston Rockets are backing up from no one, standing 20-1 in their last 21 and 28-3 in their last 31 and then we have the Portland Trail Blazers who currently are on a 13-1 run and are 12-2 against the spread (ATS) in those games.
It also must be noted Cleveland is going to improve dramatically with the return from injury of 6019 superstar power forward Kevin Love (17.9, 9.3, 1.7 per game), who just took his place on the floor after being out 21 games with a broken hand and scored 18 points in 25 minutes.
Expected to also rejoin the team this week are guard Rodney Hood (15.1, 2.8, 1.6) and back-up center forward Triston Thompson (6.3, 6.5). Thompson has been out with an ankle injury and Hood has been side lined with a back problem. There is no word when the Cavaliers will get back back-up forward Larry Nance (9.3, 7.0).
In the world of NBA numbers bettors need to take not winning is one thing, covering quite another. For instance the Cleveland Cavaliers are 431-29 straight up (SU) but just 23-47-1 ATS, meaning that while they are winning 58.6% of their games they are covering in only 33.3% of them. At the other end of the spectrum we find the Brooklyn Nets (23-48) are 40-30-1 ATS, meaning they win but 32.4% of the time but cover in 57.1% of their games.
The best cover teams in the NBA are the Boston Celtics (41-26-3 ATS...61.9%) and the Portland Trail Blazers (39-25-6...60.9%). The worst cover team is the aforementioned Cleveland Cavaliers. If you are a totals player, 60% of the New Orleans games go over the number.
Major League Baseball launches it season in just eight days, on Thursday, March 29, and all 30 teams will be in action on opening day. As most of you know I have usually had great money-winning baseball, including the last eight, and am set to go with my baseball services, feature sides, totals and parlays. I certainly intend to hit the ground winning next week.
The defending world champion Houston Astros are the solid 2-1 favorites to get the money in their second straight World Series. The Los Angeles Dodgers - the team Houston beat in last season's World Series - are the second choice at 5-1, followed by the Cleveland Indians and New York Yankees at 6-1. The Cubs are 7-1 and the Nationals 8-1.
If you feel real lucky you can get 2000-1 for your money on the Miami Marlins, who having been destroyed by their new ownership (former New York Yankee Derek Jeter in particular), are predicted to win a MLB low of 64.5 games this season. Leading in that category are the Astros who are projected to win 96.5 after going 101-61 last season. They are followed by Cleveland and the Los Angeles Dodgers 95.5 wins.
Why Houston Again?
I am one who is always looking for a potential winner at a decent price in futures baseball betting but not this time around. The Houston Astros are all class, power and pitching and that is where my money as gone. They have everything it takes to win it all. They have outstanding hitting and led MLB in hitting last season with a .282 team batting average. Everything says they should repeat.
As for pitching, Houston's five-man rotation was already in preseason form in spring straining. Here is the starting rotation, in order of their appearances, with last years figures.
- RH Justin Verlander (15-8, with an ERA of 3.36)
- LH Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90)
- RH Gerrit Cole (acquired from Pittsburgh) (12-12, 4.26)
- RH Lance McCullers Jr (7-4, 4.25)
- RH Charlie Morton (14-7, 3.62)
As noted all five pitchers have been lights out in spring training and should dominate from day one.