Basketball Forecast - Final Four Edition

Kelso Sturgeon Basketball Forecast Newsletter

Volume 19, Edition 28...Final Four Edition

Villanova Wildcats Odds-On 10-11 Favorites To Win 2nd NCAA Championship In Past Four Years
Loyola Longest Price On The Board at 10-1

Hitting 76% Winners (19-6) In NCAA Tournament And Intend To Cash 50 and, 25-Unit Bets In Final 4

This Baseball Underdog Should Absolutely DominateIts Opponent On 3-0 Saturday

By Kelso Sturgeon

The NCAA Final Four will be played Saturday night at the Alamodome in San Antonio with the two winners advancing to Monday's championship game. These games present challenges to handicappers and bettors because the only thing we know about them that any of the four obviously talented teams can win their contest. All have played outstanding basketball to get here and in the process have stood the test of time and fire.

I am focused on just one thing - the betting lines, and whether to take the points or lay them. It was not an easy choice in either game but I intend to continue my red-hot winning streak in the Big Dance and head into the games with a 19-6 record thus far in the tournament. That's 76% winners in a world that requires one hit by 52.38% to break even.

After a week of studying I decided to release one of tonight's games as a 50-unit play and the other one at 25 units. I am confident I will win both of them and you can win them with me for just $35, They will be available toll free at my office at 1-800-755-2255 or online

Saturday's Final Four Menu

#3 Seed Michigan (32-7) vs. #11 Seed Loyola-Chicago (32-5) 6:05 Eastern on TBS
Michigan is a 5.5-point favorite with a total of 129.5

#1 Seed Villanova (34-4) vs. #1 Seed Kansas (31-7) 8:45 Eastern on TBS
Villanova is a 5-point favorite with a total of 154.5

Current Odds To Win NCAA Championship
Villanova Wildcats 10-11
Michigan Wolverines 13-5
Kansas Jayhawks 16-5
Loyola-Chicago 10-1

As I have noted anyone of these four teams, including 10-1 Loyola, can win this thing. The Ramblers may be but the fourth 11th seed to ever make it to the final four but it is of note they are 14-0 in their last 14 contests and beat higher seeded Miami, Tennessee, Nevada and Kansas State in the tournament, all as an underdog. Are they the team of destiny?

Villanova's Wildcats certainly deserve to be the favorite to win their second national championship in the past four years. They have won their first four tournament games by an average of 18.25 points (against Radford, Alabama, West Virginia and Texas Tech) but none of those teams had the credentials  of the Kansas Jayhawks who won the Big 12 Conference championship and then won their four tournament games against much tougher opposition - Penn, Seton Hall, Clemson and Duke.

2018 RPI Ratings

The NCAA's official RPI rankings can offer some insight into handicapping these games. The rate teams from 1-to-353, from the best to the worst, and rank the strength of their schedule in the same way. As you can see from the ratings below Villanova are both ranked in the top five teams in the country and the Jayhawks have played the second toughest schedule.

TeamRPI RankStrength of Schedule
Villanova Wildcats211
Kansas Jayhawks52
Michigan Wolverines1256
Loyola Ramblers22127

19-6...76% Winners...In NCAA Heading Into Final Four

3/25...25 Units...Villanova (-6) 71, Texas Tech 59 (Won)
3/25...25 Units...Kansas (+3.5) 85, Duke 81 (OT) (Won)
3/24...25 Units...Loyola-Chicago (+1) 78, Kansas State 62 (Won)
3/24...25 Units...Florida State (+4.5) 54, Michigan 58 (Won)
3/23...50 Units...Texas Tech (+1.5) 78, Purdue 65 (Won)
3/23...25 Units...Kansas (-5) 80, Clemson 76 (Lost)
3/22...100 Units...Loyola-Chicago (+1) 69, Nevada 68 (Won)
3/22...25 Units...Kansas State (+5.5) 61, Nevada 58 (Won)
3/18...25 Units...Syracuse (+9.5) 55, Michigan State 53 (Won)
3/18...25 Units...MD-Baltimore County (+10.5) 43, Kansas State 50 (Won)
3/17...50 Units...Loyola-Chicago (+4.5) 63, Tennessee 62 (Won)
3/17...25 Units...Gonzaga (-4) 90, Ohio State 84 (Won)
3/17...25 Units...Texas Tech (-1.5) 69, Florida 66 (Won)
3/17...25 Units...Kansas (-4.5) 83, Seton Hall 79 (Lost)
3/16...25 Units...Kansas State (+2.5) 69, Creighton 59 (Won)
3/16...25 Units...Wichita State (-13.5) 75, Marshall 81 (Lost)
3/16...25 Units...Arkansas (+2) 49, Butler 62 (Lost)
3/16...25 Units...New Mexico State (+4.5) 68, Clemson 79 (Lost)
3/15...25 Units...Tennessee (-11.5) 73, Wright State 47 (Won)
3/15...25 Units...Kansas (-13.5) 76, Penn 60 (Won)
3/15...25 Units...Kentucky (-4.5) 78, Davidson 73 Won)
3/15...50 Units...Houston (-4) 67, San Diego State 65 (Lost)
3/14...15 Units...Texas Southern (-5) 64, N.C. Central 46 (Won)
3/13...25 Units...Radford (-5) 71, LIU-Brooklyn 61 (Won)

Opened Baseball Season 3-0
And Intend
To Keep Right On Winning On 3-0 Saturday Highlighted By Underdog

I promised I would launch another winning baseball season with three winners and I came through on opening day, going 3-0 and winning $300 for those betting at the $100 level. It left me with a nice feeling - to be right on a day on which highly-acclaimed pitchers such as the Dodgers Clayton Kershaw (-360), Boston's Chris Sale (-173) and Cleveland's Corey Kluber (-180)

There is a full schedule of games today and I am going for three more winners, with the menu highlighted with an underdog as my top play. This underdog grades out with better than an 80% chance to win and you can get the cash with me on this 15-unit play, plus two additional 10-unit plays, for just $10, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal but your best bet would be to sign up for the entire baseball season for just $199.

3-0 Results For Opening Day
15 Units...Yankees (-160) 6, Blue Jays 1 (Won)
10 Units...Brewers (-118) 2, Padres 1 (12 Innings) (Won)
10 Units...Under 7 Runs Mariners-Indians (Won)

My Best Bets Baseball Investment Club is my most popular baseball club and is designed to service the needs of serious but modest betters. Clients receive an average of 2-3 best bets each day and each team must emerge from my 10-point grading system with at least a 75% chance to win. Best Bets are released at the 15-unit, 10-unit and 5-unit levels.