Football Forecast October 12-15

Volume 20, Edition 4… October 13-15, 2018

Cash 50-Unit Stunner On 2-0 Friday Night
There Are Three Nationally Televised College Games Scheduled Tonight I Intend To Go 2-0 And That Includes Another 50-Unit Stunner

I went a perfect 2-0 last Friday night, winning a 50-unit bet on underdog Utah State (+2.5) which buried arch-rival BYU, 45-20, and taking down the cash with a 15-unit blowout win by Georgia Tech, 66-31, over Louisville. I intend to do exactly the same thing again tonight with another winning 50-unit play and an additional 15-unit bet. This is an excellent opportunity to build a giant bankroll heading into a weekend that is offering multiple highroller plays. CLICK HERE or call 1-800-755-2255.

It's a very important Saturday for those 19-20 college teams who hope to win and stay alive in the race for the national championship and it is a wake-up Sunday for the many NFL bettors who ignore reality. The Major League Baseball league playoffs are going full-blast, with the defending World Series champion Houston Astros favored to win the American League pennant and the Los Angeles Dodgers the solid choice to win the National League title. The NBA begins its regular season Tuesday, with two games - the Eastern Conference-favored Boston Celtics at the Philadelphia 76ers at the defending champion Golden State Warriors. Both games will be televised nationally on TNT. My basketball services are open for business and you can get the entire college and NBA seasons for just $199.

Bookmakers Live In Real World...Bettors Sometimes Do Not

Handicapping all sports is a daily challenge and battle of wits with and bookmakers who for the most part must live in the real world or go broke. Bettors, not necessarily so. One of the biggest mistakes football handicappers make is to store in their brains a rigid and unquestionable belief that certain NFL teams are so good they can't lose or so bad they cannot win. Big mistake to ignore reality and what you actually see on the field. Just look at last weekend. The Arizona Cardinals - considered one of the worst teams in the NFL - headed for San Francisco with an 0-4 record and as a 3-point underdog beat the 49ers, 28-18. The Tennessee Titans took their 3-1 record to Buffalo to meet the Bills, considered to be right down there with the Cardinals as a terrible team - and as a 6-point favorite lost, 13-12. If bad teams such as Arizona and Buffalo can win as underdogs, any of the 30 remaining teams can follow suit as a 'dog. Bet with an open mind and do not assume a big underdog, with a suspect 2018 history, cannot win and be extremely careful about betting on teams on which the betting line defies reality. A team is what it is right now and its ability to win has very little connection to the past.


BYU Has No Offense...UNLV Football Is On Life Support

BYU fired favorite son and offensive coordinator Ty Detmer at the end off last season, blaming its disappointing 4-9 record on him. His 2017 team averaged 325.2 yards (118th) and 17.1 points per game (123rd). Head coach Kalani Sitaka replaced him with former LSU offensive line coach Jeff Grimes whose offense is averaging 306.0 yards and 21.2 points per game. In observing the Cougar offense I can only say it is as as predictable as the sunrise and on any given day could be outscored and beaten by Texas-El Paso.

UNLV is letting unqualified head coach Tony Sanchez destroy its football program. A former high school coach at Las Vegas Bishop Gorman, he talks a good game but that's it. He is 14-27 in his four and one-half seasons and can be faulted in almost everything he does. He absolutely doesn't have a clue about what it takes to win at the college level, cannot get his team ready to play from the get-go, can't recruit and doesn't know how to alter a losing game plan once a contest is underway. I almost gave up on him last year when UNLV opened the season with a 43-40 loss to I-AA Howard, a 45-point underdog. I finally threw in the towel this past Saturday when the Rebels lost at home to the worst New Mexico team in years, 50-14, as 9-point favorites. The team's performance was THE WORST I had ever witnessed by a Division 1 team.

Saturday's Top College Previews

#2 GEORGIA (6-0, 4-0) at #13 LSU (5-1, 2-1) - 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
A bit surprised that the Georgia Dawgs are a 7.5-point betting favorite for this matinee clash in the Bayou ... Doesn't that seem a bit high? True, Georgia is averaging a haughty 42.8 points per game - and that includes 41, 43, 38 and 41 points scored in those four Southeastern Conference wins - and now there's two Georgia quarterbacks that are in starring roles with starter Jake Fromm (1,200 yards passing with 12 TDs and 2 INTs) and backup Justin Fields (3 rushing TDs and 2 passing scores in limited duty) getting snaps but LSU's gonna play this game with a nothing-to-lose attitude after last week's 27-19 loss at Florida. Just keep QB Joe Burrow in the upright position and we could see outright upset here in this high-profile SEC tilt.

PITTSBURGH (3-3) at #5 NOTRE DAME (6-0) - 2:30 p.m. ET, NBC
Sure, the ND Fighting Irish is a whopping three-TD betting favorites for this showdown in South Bend but fact of matter is Brian Kelly's crew can't afford to take its foot off the pedal and so there is some "pressure" on QB Ian Book (887 yards passing with 9 TDs and 1 INT) and speedy RB Dexter Williams (career-best 178 yards rushing last week against Virginia Tech) to pour on the points ... hey, Pitt RB Qadree Ollison has five TDs this year and could scoot for a monster game if Irish are asleep at the wheel. Note Notre Dame has failed to cover four of its last five games when in a twin-figure favorite role.

#7 WASHINGTON (5-1, 3-0) at #17 OREGON (4-1, 1-1) - 3:30p.m. ET, espn2
Take a second and consider that in the past two years the UW Huskies have slugged the Oregon Ducks by a combined score of 108-24 - think the kids from Eugene wouldn't like to knock Washington from the ranks of the Pac-12 undefeated right here? Hey, Oregon's a FG underdog for this bash but Mario Cristobal's gang will pull off the mild upset if - and only if - lean QB Justin Herbert (15 TDs, 5 INTs) steers clear of making the costly red-zone mistake here. Did you realize that Washington's failed to cover seven of its last 10 away games?

#10 UCF (5-0, 2-0) at MEMPHIS (4-2, 1-2) - 3:30 p.m. ET, espn2
The SU (straight-up) winning streak for the UCF Knights is up to 17 in a row - take note that Central Florida's 13-4 against the odds during this streak - but this is no rollover game considering Memphis sports double-revenge from a year ago including that wild 62-55 double-overtime triumph in last year's American Athletic Conference Championship Game. The UCF gang is averaging 575 yards a game - that's third-best in FBS play - and QB McKenzie Milton has thrown for 1,501 yards with 15 TDs and only 4 INTs. If the Tigers - a 4.5-point pup here - wish to keep the ball away from Milton, then RB Darrell Henderson (156 rushing yards per game) must motor his way to a big game. Spread goody: UCF is 13-6 ATS in conference games the past two-plus seasons.

#15 WISCONSIN (4-1, 2-0) at #12 MICHIGAN (5-1, 3-0) - 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Perhaps you've seen that the Michigan Wolverines have taken all the cash this week - the price tag's risen from -6.5 to - 9 points and gotta admit we didn't think the Wisky Badgers would be entering this Big 10 tilt as nearly double-digit favorites ... but Michigan's defense has awoken as the unit ranks first nationally in total "D" and RB Karan Higdon (averaging 5.8 yards a pop with 5 TDs) has emerged as a super-back. Spread Stat: Wisconsin is 1-4 against the juice so far this year.

#16 MIAMI (5-1, 2-0) at VIRGINIA (3-2, 1-1) - 7 p.m. ET, espn2
Here's an ACC affair that shouldn't get swept under the rug just 'cause "The U" is a solid road TD betting favorite: Miami is fresh off a major domo comeback win against archrival Florida State en route to a 28-27 non-cover triumph and so what's left in the old gas tank here? We will tell you that Virginia's covered six of the last nine games in this series.

Saturday's 5 College Best Bets

Editor's Note: Since these selections have been made a few days in advance Kelso reserves the right to change any of them for his telephone services should late-developing circumstances make that the proper thing to do. Please check with the office toll free at 1-800-755-2255 determine if there are been any late chances. Home team always in CAPS.

15 Units - #8 PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (4-1) -13.5 by 20-21 over Michigan State Spartans (3-2) - Penn State suffered its only loss to #3-ranked Ohio State by a single point, 27-26, on a last-second field goal and has every single edge in this Big Ten battle. The Nittany Lions had last week off and are in strong bounce-back form off the home loss to the Buckeyes. But there is much more. It is homecoming in University Park and one wonders what Penn State superstar QB Trace McSorley will do to a Spartan defense that gave up 373 passing yards last week in a 29-19 homecoming loss to Northwestern. McSorley's two top career passing games have come against Michigan State - 381 yards and three touchdowns in last year's loss and 376 and four touchdowns three seasons ago. And against Ohio State, he rushed for a career 175 yards. Kickoff at 3:30 EDT...On Big Ten Network.

10 Units - INDIANA HOOSIERS (4-2) +4.5 by 6-7 over Iowa Hawkeyes (4-1) - Sometimes a football handicapper just has to go with his gut feeling and that is exactly what I am doing in this spot. With all due respect to Iowa, my figures say both of these Big Ten teams are almost even in talent and the ability to win this game. Indiana comes into this contest off a 49-26 loss at #3 Ohio State and has practiced this week like a team determined to please its long suffering homecoming crowd. I believe this game will go right to the money and that the Hoosiers will in the end prevail. 12:00 Noon Kickoff...On ESPN2.


Temple Owls (3-3) -7 by 14-17 over NAVY MIDSHIPMEN (2-3) - Temple began the season rather weakly, with back-to-back losses to I-AA Villanova, 19-17, and to Buffalo, 36-29, and then woke up with a 35-14 win at Maryland has a 15-point underdog. Last week's overpowering 49-6 home win over East Carolina revealed just how tough the Owls are on both sides of the ball. Navy has played decent football this season but it is obvious this Midshipman team is of the same quality as those of recent years. Their lack of depth showed in last week's 35-7 loss at Air Force as a 2-point favorite. Kickoff at 3:30 EDT...On CBS College Sports Network.

FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (4-1) -17.5 by 27-28 over Wyoming Cowboys (2-4) - Fresno State struck gold when former California coach Jeff Tedford got tired of playing golf and last season came out of retirement to become the head coach at his alma mater. What he did last year was amazing, leading the Bulldogs to a 10-4 record, including a 33-27 victory of Houston in the Hawaii Bowl. Please note Fresno State had gone 1-11 the previous year under then-coach Tim Deruyter, with its only win coming over I-AA Sacramento State, 31-3. Needless to say the Bulldogs have the talent to challenge both Boise State and San Diego State for the Mountain West Conference championship and won't be taking any prisoners against a rebuilding Wyoming team. Kickoff at 10:30 EDT...On ESPNU.

UTAH STATE AGGIES (4-1) -27 by 38-41 over UNLV Rebels - This Utah State team is special and it showed that last week with a dominating 45-20 home win over arch-rival BYU. The Aggies were 2-point favorites in that one and turned it into a rout early. For the record Utah State's only loss this season came in game one at Michigan State where, as 23.5-point underdogs, took the Spartans to the money before losing, 38-31. As for UNLV, the Rebels are on life support. Last week, as 9-point favorites, they fell at home, 50-14, to a dreadful New Mexico team. UNLV was so dominated in that game by an opponent it should have crushed it was embarrassing - the worst performance I have every witnessed in any game from the high school level up to the NFL. UNLV fell behind 29-0 at the half (they had one first down in the first two periods) and for the game had 166 yards of total offense to 502 for the Lobos and had 13 first downs to 25 for the visitors. Poorly coached, not much talent and no enthusiasm points to a Utah State blowout.