Kelso Football Basketball Newsletter Nov 9-13


November 9-13, 2018

IT'S A NOVEMBER TO REMEMBER!

200-Unit College Football Mismatch Game Of Year Wins By 45-50 Points Saturday
7-0 NFL Triple Crown Of Year Set To Break The Bank Sunday

5 College Football Winners...2 NFL Winners...3 NBA Winners...5 College Basketball Winners Included In This Newsletter

By Kelso Sturgeon

Things are quite busy in Las Vegas and throughout to Nevada these days. The deluge of betting opportunities in college football, the NFL, college basketball and the NBA is a massive daily challenge for bettors and bookmakers. Maybe that is why Vegas bookies lost a shocking $10 million on the NFL this past Sunday. Maybe, too busy grabbing the bettors money while not paying attention to their exposure. Forgot it was a risk vs. reward business on both sides of the counter.

Sunday, November 4, will go down as the worst day in history for the Las Vegas sports books. No other day comes close. That was a big hit at the books' bottom line but it must be noted the 190 sports books in Nevada won $56.3 million in September, including a record $44.3 million on college football and the NFL. Sports book executives and the know-nothing bean counters - most of whom have been promoted from overseeing the salad bar at the buffet - have become very nervous because Vegas books have lost to the public for three straight weekends

Some days it's chicken; some days it's feathers. As stunning as was that single day loss, it was but one of the unexpected events to recently occur. A few days earlier, some fool - observers said he appeared to be sober - walked into the Westgate Super Book and bet $67,000 in cold hard cash to win $670 on the Golden State Warriors to win their third straight NBA championship. The book gladly accepted the wager and put out the word it would appreciate any like-minded bettors to step right up and do the same.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEKEND BETTING MENU

Friday, Nov. 9

Saturday, Nov. 10

Sunday, Nov. 11

Monday, Nov. 12

All my games are available online or by calling 1-800-755-2255

#2 Clemson Is Sending Message To Bettors and Shows No Mercy To Anyone

There are many elements required to win and get the cover in a college football game and #2 Clemson (9-0) has added another one. The Tigers are all-in on making it to the NCAA championship game and are taking no chances they will lose. That is evidenced by the fact they have intentionally run up the score on their last four opponents - all weak teams. They showed their true colors last week when, as 39-point favorites, destroyed a helpless Louisville team, 77-16, and seemed quite proud of it. That win means Clemson has won its last four games by an average of 51.0 points, and has easily covered double-digits in all of them. The Tigers are 20-point favorites at Boston College (7-2) Saturday and will again try to run the Eagles out of the Stadium. My money says BC will pull put all the stops to make certain it does not suffer the same fate.

Central Florida Goes For 22nd Straight Win But Has No Chance To Play For Title

Life is not fair. Never has been, never will be. Central Florida (8-0) is definitely a Top Ten team, even though those voting in polls are reluctant to put the Knights there. Thus they are are rated #12, are 25.5-point home favorites over Navy Saturday and are going for their 22nd straight win, having not lost a game since the 2016 Cure Bowl where they fell to Arkansas, 31-13. Despite its success, UCF is shunned. The knock on Central Florida is that it does not play in one of the power five conferences and thus does not compete against top-flight competition. There may be some truth to that but given the chance after a perfect 12-0 last year UCF destroyed that myth when it it was thrown to the wolves in the Peach Bowl and knocked off Auburn, 34-27, as a 10.5-point underdog. There is no question in my mind the Knights were placed in that game to teach them a lesson - that they were not good enough to take on the giants and survive. The won it and still no respect.
Central Florida beats all-comers and remains an orphan in the minds of those who control the game.

The Championship Contenders This Weekend - Not One Of The Top Ten Teams Can Afford To Lose

#1 ALABAMA (9-0) vs. Mississippi (6-3). The Crimson Tide are -24.
#2 CLEMSON (9-0) at Boston College (7-2). The Tigers are -20.
#3 NOTRE DAME (9-0) vs. Florida State (4-5). The Irish are -18.
#4 MICHIGAN (8-1) at Rutgers (1-8). The Wolverines are -39.
#5 GEORGIA (8-1) vs. #24 Auburn (6-3). The Bulldogs are -14.
#6 OKLAHOMA (8-1) vs. Oklahoma State (5-4). The Sooners are -20.5.
#7 LSU (7-2) at Arkansas (2-7). The Tigers are -13.5,
#8 WASHINGTON STATE (8-1) at Colorado. The Cougars are -6.
#9 WEST VIRGINIA (8-1) vs. TCU (4-5). The Mountaineers are -11.5.
#10 OHIO STATE (8-1) at #18 Michigan State. The Buckeyes are -3.5

 

BASKETBALL IS BACK - And A Daily Moneymaker!

The 2018-19 college basketball season has started and I went 4-0 opening night, winning 15 units on Kansas (-4.5) 92, Michigan State 87, 15 units on Duke (+2.5) 118, Kentucky 84, and a 50 unit winner on Nevada (-12) 86, BYU 70. I also released Elon (-1.5) 62, Manhattan 56.

I have again worked long and hard on rating the 350 college basketball teams on which we will bet this season and am again better prepared for the season than those who making betting lines simply because I again have a better opinion and better numbers than do those who make the numbers. My numerical ratings are current while bookmakers begin each season off last year's. This is the reason I for years have stung bookmakers during the first six weeks of each season. CLICK HERE for more info on my 3 basketball services.

 

THIS WEEK'S NEWSLETTER BEST BETS

Editor's Note: These selections are made a few days before they are being played and Kelso reserves the right to change them if later developments suggest that is the best thing to do.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL Saturday, November 10

15 Units - #12 Kentucky Wildcats (7-2) -5.5 by 17 over TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (4-5) - Kentucky is much better than its record, with its two losses coming at Texas A&M, 20-14 and at home to Georgia, 34-17, last week. The Wildcats have every single edge except the home field and have to be tired of losing in Knoxville where they are 0-16 in their last 16 there. This is the best team Kentucky has put on the field in decades and has all the weapons, on both offense and defense, to stop Tennessee in its tracks.

10 Units - Temple Owls (5-4) +4.5 by 6-7 over HOUSTON COUGARS (7-2) - Temple's defense fell apart last week and the Owls lost to #12 Central Florida, 52-45, but still impressed me as a team that has arrived. Temple matched powerful UCF in every aspect in that game and showed me an explosive offense that heretofore had been missing This game will most likely turn into another shootout and I look for Temple to come out on top thus week.

5 Units - TULANE GREEN WAVE (4-5) -13.5 over East Carolina Pirates (2-6) - The winning difference in this game will come for Tulane because it has an outstanding coach and East Carolina is guided by an individual who has proved he cannot get the job done. Tulane coach Wille Fritz has turned around and won championships at Binn College, Central Missouri, Sam Houston State and Georgia Southern and is in the process of doing the same thing in New Orleans. He has a 25-year coaching record of 202-89-1. Fritz is a football genius who simply figures out how to win.

5 Units - EASTERN MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS (5-5) -12.5 over Akron Zips (4-4) - Eastern Michigan will certainly be incentive driven today because it needs to win to become bowl eligible. On paper these MAC schools look reasonably even in talent but I have to give the winning edge to Eastern because it is playing at a higher level than is Akron. The starting quarterbacks for both schools - Kato Nelson for the Zips and Mike Glass III for the Chippewas - have leg injuries and are listed as questionable to play.

5 Units - DUKE BLUE DEVILS (6-3) -10 by 20-21 over North Carolina Tar Heels (1-7) - The Duke Blue Devils are at the top of their game and come into this ACC contest off a 20-12 upset win over Miami last week. They are facing a North Carolina team that has beaten only Pittsburgh this season and is fallen off the charts because of its depleted ranks, caused by several scandals and penalties. There is no reason to think Duke will not win this rivalry game.

NFL Sunday Nov. 11

10 Units - TENNESSEE TITANS (3-4) +6.5 by 3 over New England Patriots (7-2) - It always takes courage to go against New England but I think the matchups in this one tilt the game in the direction the host Titans. There conservative style of play should slow down the Patriots offense and keep it close all the way, with Tennessee getting the straight up win.

5 Units - Los Angeles Chargers (6-2) -10 by 24 over OAKLAND RAIDERS (1-7) - There is not the slightest doubt in my mind the Raiders are tanking to make certain they beat out Cleveland for the #1 draft choice next year. Trying not to win has Raiders players upset, furious and unfocused and that is the perfect formula for getting one's butt kicked.


COLLEGE BASKETBALL - All Games 5 Units...Home Team In CAPS

Friday, November 9
DAVIDSON by 18 over Dartmouth
TEMPLE by 20 over Detroit
Northern Kentucky by 7-8 over NORTHERN ILLINOIS

Saturday, November 10
UT ARLINGTON by 11 over Northern Iowa
BELMONT by 13 over Illinois State


NBA

Saturday, November 10
15 Units - TORONTO RAPTORS by 17-18 over New York Knicks
10 Units - HOUSTON ROCKETS by 4-5 over SAN ANTONIO SPURS
5 Units - DALLAS MAVERICKS by 8-9 over Oklahoma City Thunder

From My Point Of View

--It is disgraceful the Buffalo Bills(2-7) have scored just 41 points in its last six games - an average of 6.03 per contest. And they still call this professional football? By the way this team went 9-8 last season.

--The Baltimore Ravens are on their way to missing the NFL playoffs for the 4th consecutive year. They are 4-5 but have lost three straight and 4-of-their-last-5. Head coach Jim Harbaugh says he is not afraid of losing his job. How dat?

--As noted above, the Oakland Raiders are tanking to improve their draft status, are 1-7 and will win only by accident.

--All comments to the contrary few can like how things are going for the Denver Broncos (3-6) who have lost five of their last six games.

--Biggest disappointment of NFL season are the Jacksonville Jaguars who began 2018-19 as one of the teams with a strong chance to make the Super Bowl. After going 12-7 last season, the Jags are 3-5 and have lost four straight, both outright and ATS.

--Chaos has taken over the New York Jets locker room and the second-guessing and back-stabbing is destroying the team. It's hard to win under those circumstances because the game at the NFL level requires focus and concentration.