Kelso Newsletter - November 16-20


November 16-20, 2018

NFL Is Scamming Public With Teams Than Stink And Are Anything But "Professional"...No Joke

After Winning 23 Straight, Central Florida (9-0) Takes On Cincinnati  (9-1) With A Goal It Cannot Accomplish

Nothing Illustrates Challenge Of Handicapping College Basketball Than #8 Villanova 's 27-Point Home Loss To Michigan

Some Say It Will Again Be #1 Alabama Vs. #2 Clemson In College Football Title Game But I Would Not Bet On It

By Kelso Sturgeon

The suits that run the National Football League say they are quite concerned about the concussion issue, protecting the quarterback, injuries on kick-returners, terrible officiating that is being exposed by instance replay, it's public image, Jerry Jones and his power moves, the players union, high salaries and Colin Kaepernick. While they are worried about these things, they are ignoring their biggest problem - the fact the quality of play on the field is in major decline.

I have been involved in football as a player, scout, recruiter and handicapper for too many years to mention and I have never witnessed anything like it. This past weekend there were three obvious examples of this, and there is no way to hide them.

First up is the quarterback situation in Buffalo. Because of injuries to starting quarterback Josh Allen and his back-up and his back-up, the Bills pulled Mat Barkley off the street to start against the New York Jets. This is the same Barkley who was a superstar at Southern California who never quite made it in the NFL. Barkley did not take a single snap as a back-up at Cincinnati last season and was cut this summer as the back-up at Cincinnati. In his previous five years, he was shuffled around by several teams - the Philadelphia Eagles who originally drafted him, the Arizona Cardinals (twice), the Chicago Bears, the San Francisco 49ers, the Bengals and now Buffalo. During his entire career, he made but six starts - all for the Bears - and during that time frame threw for eight touchdowns, with four interceptions. And, now, after being picked off the street spent 10 days in the Bills camp before inheriting the starting QB job. Unheard of, but it happened. It certainly was the right move for Buffalo, which had averaged but 9.25 points in its last four games. With Barkley making his first start since the 2016 season, he connected on a 47-yard pass on his first play. By halftime the Bills were up 31-3 and on their way to an unexpected 41-10 victory.

At the professional level, and rarely in college football, surprises such as this are not supposed to happen. Off the street and into the starting role. You have to be kidding me. What next, are teams going to head into redneck bars and sign up the 350 pounders brawlers as linemen? And they call this "professional" football?

AND NOW ON TO THOSE EMBARRASSING NEW YORK JETS

As the Buffalo-New York Jets game approached, there was a lot of joking in the latter's locker room over the fact the Bills intended to start at QB, back-up 3rd-stringer Nathan Peterman, who had an unfortunate habit of serving up interceptions. I can only imagine how overjoyed they were when this nobody Barkley would instead be the starter.Dancing in the streets for facing a quarterback who had not seen the playing field on game day since the 2016 season. It is difficult to fathom how such an inept, ill-coached and unfocused Jets team could make fun of any opponent. New York had lost three straight and had averaged just 11.0 points while giving up 24.7 in those games. Hardly the numbers that give birth to arrogance. A "pro" team? Really? The only good news for the Jets is that they are off this week and don't have to play Alabama in the future.

And they call this "professional" football?

AND THOSE HORRIBLE OAKLAND RAIDERS

The biggest scammers of all are the Oakland Raiders who are going in the tank week after week in order to get the number one choice in the NFL draft. To aid their cause they sent one of the best defensive players in the game, end Mack Kahlil, to the Chicago Bears which gave them the impact player they needed. Then it was wide-receiver Amari Cooper going to the Dallas Cowboys, leaving a big black hole in the Oakland pass-catching corps.

This is all on purpose and the suits say nothing. I mean here is a team absolutely trying to lose and nobody seems to care. The Raiders, who are moving to a new state-of-the-art $1.9 billion stadium in Las Vegas in 2020, if not sooner, have not scored a touchdown in three of their last four games - just a total of six field goals. In those games Oakland lost to Seattle 27-3, to Indianapolis, 42-28, at San Francisco, 34-3, and vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, 20-6.

And they call this "professional" football?

These things would not have happened in the past, when the NFL was truly professional football. Teams came to play, tried to win and bettors knew they were getting an honest run for their money. It's a sad state of affairs and just ups the challenge of handicapping each week. Bettors would be in jail if they attempted to fix an NFL game while some teams and coaches smile and do just that each week.

This Weekend's Betting Menu

Friday, November 16

Saturday, November 17

  • 200-Unit College Blowout Special - Won 200-Unit Play Last Week With #23 Utah State (-31) 62-24 Over San Jose State
  • 50-Unit College Football Game Of Week - 4-1 With Last 5 For Highrollers
  • Syracuse (8-2) at #3 Notre Dame (10-0) Tops 3-0 Best Bets Day - Syracuse Took #2 Clemson To Money Before Losing 27-23
  • 50-Unit College Basketball Mismatch Of The Week - I Guarantee No One Will Be Expecting This Winner

Sunday, November 18

  • 50-Unit NFL Game Of The Week - 3-1 With Last 4
  • Go 2-0 With Two Dominating Best Bets - Circumstances Put Both These Teams In Winner's Circle
  • 40-Unit Side/Total Parlay On Sunday Night's Vikings-Bears Game - Can Vikings Finally Wake Up And Catch Chicago in NFC North?
  • Best Bets Basketball Club Set To Go 3-0 In NBA And Colleges - Get Entire NBA, College Seasons For Just $159

Monday, November 19

  • 50-Unit Bet On Chiefs (9-1) at Los Angeles Rams (9-1) - A True Showdown...Game Moved From Mexico City To Los Angeles
  • #1 Duke Vs. San Diego State Highlights 3-0 Monday - From Maui Invitational...On ESPN2

All my games are available online or by calling 1-800-755-2255


WEEKLY FOOTBALL/BASKETBALL HANDICAPPING HINTS

--Alabama (10-0), Clemson (10-0), Notre Dame (10-0) and Michigan (9-1) are ranked 1-2-3-4 in the poll to make it to the college football playoffs but the race is not over yet. #5 Georgia (9-1) and #8 Washington State (9-1) are extremely dangerous teams and have the ability to get there should any of the top fur stumble.

--Central Florida (9-0 and the winner of 22 straight) has no chance to make the final four because those who vote in the championship poll refuse to recognize them as a legitimate power because they say the schedule is too week. Balderdash.

--Handicapping college basketball is always a major challenge, with #18 Michigan beating #8 Villanova by 27 points, 73-46, on the Wildcats home floor. It is easy to draw a misleading conclusion on outcomes like this. In that game, Villanova was as cold as ice, hitting just 32% of its shots (14-of-44), while the Wolverines shot 51% (28-of-55). No way is Michigan 27 points better than the defending national champions.

--It is just my opinion but the Kentucky Wildcats, ranked 10th in the polls, is the most overrated team in college basketball. My figures say they will crush the cupcakes on their schedule but will get their butts burned when the tangle with the big boys and that includes some fellow SEC member schools.

 

THIS WEEK'S NEWSLETTER BEST BETS

Editor's Note: These selections are made a few days before they are being played and Kelso reserves the right to change them later. Home teams in CAPS.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL...Saturday, November 17

15 Units: TEMPLE OWLS (6-4) -13.5 by 21 over South Florida Bulls (7-3) - This American Athletic Conference contest is a battle between two teams headed in opposite directions. South Florida opened the season 7-0 for the second straight year and seems to have fallen off the edge of the world, losing its last three by 21 points, 26 points and 12 points. Meantime, Temple has jelled into an outstanding team and has won four of its last five games, including last week's 59-49 victory at Houston. The Owls are at their best right now and should dominate from start to finish. Bulls starting QB, Blake Barnett missed last week's game, a 35-23 loss at Cincinnati and is questionable for this one.

10 Units: Colgate Red Raiders (9-0) +11 by 3-4 over ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS (8-2) - The numbers do much of the talking in this game matching Colgate, ranked 8th in the Division II polls, against An Army team that is at the top of its game. They have played one common opponent - Lafayette which Colgate crushed 45-0 at home and which Army knocked off 31-13 last week at West Point. Now throw in the fact Colgate has won the Patriot League championship for the third time in the last four years and has a defense so good it is difficult to accept the numbers. The Red Raiders defense has allowed just 3.2 points and 192.3 yards per game this season and in the process has held five of its opponents scoreless. The bottom line: This game figures to be a defensive battle and there is no question in my mind Colgate will pull off the upset.

5 Units: Texas-El Paso Miners (1-9) +7.5 by 9-10 over WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS (1-9) - This one is as cut-and-dried as a game could be. While both teams are a mere 1-9, the Hilltoppers are getting worse with each game they play and UTEP is getting better. It is as simple as that and the Miners should get it done straight up.

5 Units: KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (4-6) +6.5 by 7 over Texas Tech Red Raiders (5-5) - This is a rebuilding year for K-State and its record reflects it, along with the fact it most likely will not be going bowling for the first time since 2010. But that does not mean the Wildcats cannot get it done. No question Texas Tech is the better team this season but the Red Raiders have to be a bit tired after losing their last three games to #14 Texas, 41-34, to #8 Oklahoma, 51-46, and to #16 Iowa State, 40-31. Tired or not, Kansas State lays down for nobody, is coached to the nines and always comes to play. An upset is in order here.

5 Units: N.C. State Wolfpack (6-3) -16.5 by 45 over LOUISVILLE CARDINALS (2-8) - The bottom fell out of Louisville football this season and the Cardinals have won but two games - 31-7 over NCAA Division II Indiana State, and 20-17 over 1-9 Western Kentucky. The rest have been nothing short of a disaster. The Cardinals have lost seven straight and in their last five contests have given up an average of 58.2 points. Yes, 58.2 points - and that is hard to do. Hapless, Helpless and Hopeless, Louisville is a sitting duck for a very talented N.C. State team.

NFL...Sunday Nov. 18

10 Units: Carolina Panthers (6-3) -4.5 by 13-14 over DETROIT LIONS (3-6) - The Panthers do little spectacular on the field but they win and come into this game in major bounce-back form after a crushing 52-21 loss at Pittsburgh. They have every single edge but the home field in this one and are meeting a Lions squad begging for direction from rookie Matt Patricia who obviously does not have a clue how to bring a team up to play a game. Carolina should dominate from start to finish.

COLLEGE BASKETBALL
All Games 5 Units...Home Team In CAPS - No CAPS Means Game Is On Neutral Floor

Friday, November 16
Kansas State by 25-26 over Eastern Kentucky

Saturday, November 17
Providence by 12-13 over South Carolina
Northern Kentucky -13-14 over Manhattan

NBA...Saturday, November 17

15 Units: NEW ORLEANS PELICANS 6-7 over Denver Nuggets
10 Units: Los Angeles Lakers 7-8 over ORLANDO MAGIC
5 Units: INDIANA PACERS 13-14 over Atlanta Hawks