Football - Basketball Newsletter - Dec 13-17


December 13-17, 2018

Alabama (13-0) 1-2 Favorite To Win National Championship, Clemson (13-0) 3-1. Notre Dame, (12-0) And Oklahoma (12-1) Both 10-1...
40-Game Bowl Season Begins With 100-Unit Play Saturday

 

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Handicapping Hints For College Bowl Games & College and NBA Best Bet Selections

By Kelso Sturgeon

The 40-game college bowl season begins Saturday and I am ready for it, just as I was last season when I went 22-12 (65% winners), up 290 units. It also is of note that during last year's December college and NFL crunch time, I reported in at 28-13-1 (68% winners), plus 710 units. Just so you understand I am not riding on my 2017-18 post season, I have already crushed the college conference championship games with the boldest plays in my more than four decades of handicapping. In the college games earlier this month I released five of them and went 4-1 in an almost-unbelievable money run. My record in those games:
200 Units...Ohio State (-14) 45, Northwestern 24 (Won)
100 Units...Georgia (+12.5) 28, Alabama 35 (Won)
100 Units...Fresno State (+1) 19, Boise State 16 Won)
50 Units...Central Florida (-3) 56, Memphis 41 Won)
50 Units...Texas (+9.5) 27, Oklahoma 39 (Lost)

And just last week released two NCAA Division 1-AA quarterfinal games and won them both, one a 100-unit play. The games...
100 Units...North Dakota State (-25) 35, Colgate 0 (Won)
25 Units...Maine (+8.5) 23, Weber State 18 (Won)

I was ready for the conference championships, the Division 1-AA playoffs and even more prepared for the bowl coverage that begins Saturday with three winners, the highlight of the day a 100-unit bet on a team - a modest favorite - that should crush its opponent by 3-4 touchdowns. And that's just the opening salvo of the postseason. I have put together a special football basketball package that is one of the biggest bargain in sports betting history. Noted below is what it contains and is designed to win for you between $5,000 to $10,000 between now and the Super Bowl. Listed below is the package, valued at more than $1,000, but available to all for just $175, charged to your major credit card. Yes it includes Saturday's 100-unit bowl play and Sunday's 200-unit NFL Blowout Game of the Year. Sign up online or toll free at 1-800-755-2255. Again All major credit cards and Pay Pal accepted.

Football Betting Menu Today Through Monday Night Football
Daily College And/Or NBA Basketball Also Included

Thursday, Dec. 13
25 Units: Los Angeles Chargers (10-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (11-2)
Can Chargers Win With 1-2 Running Backs Injured?

Friday, Dec. 14 - FCS Semifinal
25 Units: South Dakota State (10-2) at North Dakota State (13-0) (ESPN2)
South Dakota State Took North Dakota State Right To The Money During Regular Season Before Losing, 21-17.

Saturday, Dec. 15
100 Unit College Bowl Blowout Wins On 3-0 Day
Go 2-0 In NFL...Texans (9-4) at Jets (4-9) and Browns (5-7-1) at Broncos (6-7)
25 Unit FCS Bet...Maine (10-3) at Eastern Washington (11-2). On ESPN2

Sunday, Dec. 16
200-Unit NFL Blowout Game of the Year
50-Unit NFL Game of the Week
Cowboys (8-5) at Colts (7-5-1) Highlights 2-0 NFL Sunday

Monday, Dec. 17
40-Unit Side/Total Parlay On Saints (11-2) at Panthers (6-7)

 

Five-Point Check List For Handicapping The Bowls

  1. Double-check each team's injury list to make certain you will get in the game the same people who played during the regular season. For instance, Central Florida, which has not lost a game the past two seasons, will be without starting superstar QB McKinzie Milton when it faces LSU in the Fiesta Bowl.
  2. Always take into consideration the conference RPI rating of each team. For the record, the SEC, Big 12 and Big Ten are rated 1-2-3 in this rating while the Sun Belt, Conference USA and the MAC are rated 9-10-11. This means LSU, from the top-rated SEC is meeting Central Florida from the 10th-ranked Conference USA.
  3. Analyze the attitude of each team as it approaches its bowl game. We know #1 Alabama, #2 Clemson, #3 Notre Dame and #4 Oklahoma will all fire their best shots since they are two wins short of winning the national championship. Lesser teams in lesser boils may/may not be pulling out all the stops to win. Some are satisfied to just participate in the postseason, with winning a possible bonus. Team intent and focus is extremely important.
  4. How was a team playing during the last month of the season. Better or worse that earlier.
  5. How do the teams matchup on both offense and defense. In the case of Army vs. Houston in the Armed Forces Bowl, the latter Is taking on an Army team that runs to perfection a ground- oriented triple-option offense that baffles opposing defenses which seldom see it. For instance, Army took #4 Oklahoma to the money in Norman as 32.5-point underdogs before losing 28-21. There are many similar situations in the bowls. The Sooners had no clue as how to stop it.


Duke, Kansas, Tennessee, Michigan are 1-2-3-4 In My Top Ten College Basketball Rankings With Kentucky Most Over-Rated

The basketball betting lines just get harder and harder to beat and that situation demands one to have an accurate rating of each team on which one bets. That said, media opinion and the polls are so misleading that accepting them as fact, and using them as part of your handicapping analysis, could send you right down Financial Disaster Highway.

There is no more clear cut example of this that Kentucky, which until this past week, was rated in the polls as a Top Ten team which it was far from that. The Wildcats dropped to 19th in the Top 25 this week and will shortly be out of the rankings - just another so-so team playing basketball. Kentucky (7-2) has played two legitimate teams thus far this season - at Seton Hall and at home to Duke. The Wildcats lost to the Pirates, 84-83, as 7-point favorites and to the Blue Devils, 118-84 at home as the 2.5-point choice. The seven games they won, all at home in Lexington, came against UNC-Greensboro (8-2), Monmouth (0-10), Tennessee State (3-5), Winthrop (4-4), VMI (5-6), North Dakota (5-5) and Southern Illinois (7-3). According to the official NCAA RPI ratings, Kentucky is ranked 116th of 353 teams and has played 198th toughest schedule. Compare these numbers to #1-rated Kansas (8-0) who has played the toughest schedule - beating the likes of #2-ranked Tennessee and #9 Michigan State.

Take a look and 7th-ranked Gonzaga (9-1) that has played the 12th toughest schedule, beating #10 Duke. 89-87, on a neutral floor while losing to #2 Tennessee, 73-73, on a neutral. Kentucky was ranked in the Top Ten off its history and not because of its current talent. Those who like to bet Kentucky, which is 3-6 against the number, got buried before they woke up and figured out this was not the same quality Wildcat team that ran over everybody. The truth is Kentucky, at best, is the  fourth best team in the Southeastern Conference behind Tennessee, Auburn, LSU and Mississippi State.
The truth will be told and you will not find it in the media or the polls.

College And NBA Best Bets For Saturday And Sunday

These Selections Are Made A Few Days In Advance And I Reserve The Right To Change Them Should The Situation Merit That - Home Team In CAPS

Saturday, Dec. 15
College Basketball
KANSAS by 12-13 over Villanova
MICHIGAN by 24-25 over Western Michigan
MISSISSIPPI STATE by 9-10 over Cincinnati
LSU by 10-11 over St. Mary's
Loyola-Marymount by 6-7 over PORTLAND STATE

NBA Basketball
CHARLOTTE HORNETS by 6-7 over Los Angeles Lakers
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES by 7-8 over Houston Rockets

Sunday, Dec. 16
College Basketball
WESTERN KENTUCKY by 13-14 over Troy
MISSISSIPPI by 16-17 over Chattanooga

NBA Basketball
BROOKLYN NETS by 9-10 over Atlanta Hawks

 

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