September 28-30

September 28-30, 2019

100-Unit College, 100-Unit NFL Winners This Weekend - Looking At Blowout Wins In Both

The Power Of Bounce In College Football With 5 Potential Winners In This Newsletter

 By Kelso Sturgeon

Many football bettors are stuck between the proverbial rock and a hard place each game day because they do not realize the deceit and and the manipulation of betting lines that goes on behind the scenes. These two things are hidden in the dark underbelly of the bookmaking and betting world, and it happens on both sides of the counter.

The big betting syndicates are famous for deceiving bettors in order to make them lose. In fact, they detest and hate anybody who follows them in order to find out what they are doing. Their biggest gimmick is to send one of their beards (everybody knows who he is and who he represents) to bet $25,000 on a team. A sneaky representative of the followers listens in and then spreads the word.

Everybody runs to the windows to bet the same team, only to find out a bit later this syndicate came right back in betting parlors all over the world to bet $250,000 on the other side. They gladly eat the $25,000 - meaningless to them in the overall picture.
Manipulation goes on every single day in this business, and that includes football and basketball totals.

And, then, there are those killing trap bets and lead bettors to shoot themselves in the foot. While it is extremely difficult to deal with the line manipulations, there is a way to avoid most traps by paying attention.

We had a perfect example of this in the NFL Thursday night.

Knowledge and insight enable successful NFL bettors to get past this by reading between the lines and win when almost everybody else is losing. That was the case Thursday when I sent my highrollers in the opposite direction of more than 80% of the bettors. The majority were on the Green Bay Packers -4 when Las Vegas bookmakers let it be known they were loaded with heavy one-sided action because few wanted the underdog Philadelphia Eagles.

The next logical move was to at least raise the number to -4.5 or -5.0 in hopes of getting Philadelphia play. It never happened and the books even dropped the number to -3.5, offering an open invitation to bet all one wanted on Green Bay. In writing about the game yesterday, I noted the suspicious number and said one could think the game was either fixed or that bookmakers had taken leave of their senses. Long ago, I realized there is more to winning than data in a world of rock-hard betting lines.
Reading between the lines, figuring the guys on the other side of the counter knew something I did not, I put my clients on the Philadelphia Eagles (+4) and they won, 34-27, by exploiting the Packers hidden secret - that its defense was actually weak and would be quite vulnerable against the type of offense run by the Eagles.

5 College Teams Strong Candidates To Bounce And Win On Rebound Saturday

I have said at least 1,000 times the bounce-back factor in college football is a major element to successful handicapping. History has proved when a team loses against an equally talented opponent, or gets buried as an underdog, it is eligible to bounce back, win and cover, in its next game, so long as that game is played six-seven games later.

The only elements necessary to be a bounce-back candidate are (1) To have the ability to do that and (2) be meeting an inferior opponent. It also helps if the bounce candidate is playing at home. I have listed below five teams in the bounce-back profile today and suggest you step in a give it a test. You just might go 5-0.

  • NOTRE DAME (2-1) -11 at home over Virginia (4-0) - Irish off 23-17 loss at Georgia.
  • TEXAS A&M (2-2) -23.5 at home over Arkansas (2-2) - Aggies off 28-20 home loss to Auburn.
  • MICHIGAN (2-1) -28 at home over Rutgers (1-2) - Wolverines off 35-14 loss at Wisconsin.
  • WESTERN MICHIGAN (2-2) -16 at home over Central Michigan (2-2) - Broncos off 52-33 loss at Syracuse.
  • WYOMING (3-1) -9 at home over UNLV (1-2) - Cowboys off 24-21 loss at Tulsa.

Houston Astros Have Everything It Takes To Win 2nd World Series in Past 3 Years

The Major League Baseball regular season is down to each teams' final two games and there are still a few important things to be decided, even though the playoffs begin Tuesday. That said, Las Vegas betting odds have the Houston Astros to win it all, and I certainly do not disagree.

Current World Series Odds
Houston Astros                9-4
Los Angeles Dodgers    5-2
New York Yankees          7-2
Atlanta Braves                10-1
Minnesota Twins           12-1
St. Louis Cardinals       12-1

In analyzing each team, the only one with absolutely no weaknesses is the Houston Astros, who won this classic event two years ago by beating the Los Angeles Dodgers 4-3. Why Houston?

1. The best starting pitching rotation in the majors, including three giants -
RH Justin Verlander (20-6, 2.53, 288 strikes).
RH Gerrit Cole (19-5, 2.52, 316 strikeouts)
RH Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93, 187 strikeouts)

2. The Astros lead baseball in hitting, with the entire crew batting .275
3. The Astros have a top five bullpen.
4. The Astros will have home field advantage most, if not, all the way, where they are 60-21.

Formidable? Do the math.

Saturday's College Best Bet

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIED (4-0) -38 by over Ole Miss Rebels (2-2)
I cannot think of a single reason why Alabama will not just run off and hide from the weakest Ole Miss team I have seen in years. The Tide beat Ole Miss 62-7 as a 22.5-point favorite to push their lifetime record against the Johnny Rebels to 54-10-2. Alabama has a dramatically superior offense, an even better defense and most certainly will run up the score to again impress the world that it intends to win another national championship

Sunday's NFL Best Bet

Tennessee Titans (1-2) +3.5 by 7 over ATLANTA FALCONS (1-2)
I have no idea what is wrong in Atlanta, but the Falcons have done absolutely nothing to impress me this season. As for Tennessee I know the Titans, as woeful as they might be, are showing up to play and win, and that certainly gives them a big edge in this one. It is my prediction the Tennessee defense that allows just 17.9 points per game will shut down the uninspired Falcons and get the straight up win.
(Home Team In CAPS)

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