October 5-7, 2019
Plus Winning Bets On #12 Iowa At Michigan, #7 Auburn at #10 Florida
#25 Michigan State (4-1) At #4 Ohio State (5-0)...A True Bookie Buster Day
This Weekend Is Firing Time In Colleges & NFL
By Kelso Sturgeon
College and NFL football is a win-or-else game and the time has come for the shoe to drop on several coaches who have failed to pass the test, beginning with Jay Gruden of the winless Washington Redskins who are 15-point home underdogs to the unbeaten New England Patriots (4-0) and ageless superstar quarterback Tom Brady.
Washington has a 100% chance to lose this game straight up, and that prediction is based on everything these eyes can see, plus a boost from six different algorithms. The cover? You are on your own. A money line play on New England is out of the question since you will have to lay anywhere from -800 to -1200 to win $100. The average price is -1000.
Why not a money line bet if the Patriots have a 100% chance to win? Reality says the risk vs. reward factor is out of whack and many times each season lightning can strike.
Gruden, who is 35-49-1 in 5½ seasons, has sent out highly disorganized teams this season - teams that exhibit little offense (averaging 16.5 points and 296.2 yards per game) and less defense (giving up 29.5 points and 399.2 yards). Throw in the fact Washington has no legitimate starting quarterback, averages just 49.8 yards per game rushing).
Despite an ever-meddling front office, the blame of this disaster falls on Gruden, who I never thought he was head coach material. His performance, especially this season, reflects his ineptness. Now, throw in those empty seats at 82,900-seat FedEx Field and his fate has been sealed and you can expect his firing before the sun goes down Sunday night.
This is just the beginning; several more will follow in the coming weeks and that includes coaches who are in their first season as the boss man.
College Coaches On Red-Hot Seat
No college coach among the 130 leading NCAA I-A teams is more certain to be fired than New Mexico's Bob Davie, who is 35-56 in seven-plus years with the Lobos. New Mexico is 2-2 this season with the wins coming over I-AA Incarnate Word and New Mexico State (0-5). Davie is no longer attracting the talent it takes to win at the I-A level. If the Lobos lose at San Jose State Friday night, his firing will be announced shortly thereafter.
Second in line to get the gate, sooner than later, is UNLV's Tony Sanchez, who is 1-3 this season and 17-33 over the past four-plus years. He was a great high school coach but does not understand what it takes to win at the college level. The situation is desperate, because UNLV moves into the new 72,000-seat stadium being built for the arrival of the Oakland Raiders. The team has lost the town and currently plays before crowds of maybe 15,000.
Other college coaches on the hot seat are Akron's Tom Arth (0-5), Chad Morris of Arkansas (2-3), BYU's Kalani Sitake (2-3 this season, overall), Colorado State's Mike Bobo (1-4, 25-31), Florida State's Willie Taggart (3-2, 8-9), Illinois' Love Smith (2-2, 11-29) and Michigan's Jim Harbaugh (3-1, 41-15) and New Mexico State's Doug Martin (0-5, 20-58).
Last Saturday I found the perfect spot to make a 100-unit college football score and won just as I predicted when #4 Ohio State (-17) destroyed an over-rated Nebraska team, 48-7. The final score in this one was not indicative of just how one-sided the game was. Today is the time for the encore, this time in the PAC-12 where I am releasing my 100-unit conference game of the year.
There are four PAC-12 games today and, while I am not looking for another Ohio State-type blowout, there is a team in one of the games that as every important and edge, is primed to play its best game of the season and is being offered to the public at a very generous price. This is such a strong play, it grades out with better than a 97% chance to win straight up and a 93% chance to cover the number.
My 100-unit PAC-12 Game of the Year highlights my highroller plays, but there is more. This is a giant big-game play and I also am releasing as part of this package Winning Bets On #12 Iowa (4-0) At Michigan (3-1), #7 Auburn (5-0) at #10 Florida (5-0), And #25 Michigan State (4-1) At #4 Ohio State (5-0)
This is a giant power-plus 4-game package that should break your bookmaker and you can get it for just $50, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal. This is also part of my Octoberama Package (37 premium bets over 20 days) which you can click here to purchase for just $125.
PAC-12 Game Of Year Menu (All On National TV)
Arizona Wildcats (3-1) at Colorado Buffaloes (3-1)
California Golden Bears (4-1) at #13 Oregon Ducks (3-1)
Oregon State Beavers (1-3) at UCLA Bruins (1-4)
#15 Washington Huskies (4-1) at Stanford Cardinal (2-3)
50-Unit NFL Game Of Week Crushes Number & Going For 3rd Straight Winning 50-Unit NFL Parlay
I kicked off this NFL week Thursday night with a 50-unit win on the Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) who got the cover in a 30-29 loss at the Seattle Seahawks. On Sunday it's right back with another 50-unit NFL Game of the Week winner, plus I will be going for my third straight winning 50-unit 2-team NFL parlay.
My game of the week play is in the right place at the right time and is primed to play its best game of the season. In this one, I am looking for a comfortable score.
Football parlays are also a great way to make a major score if one can find at least two qualifying teams, just as I did last week in winning a 50-unit 2-team NFL parlay with the Giants and Jaguars. It's right back with another one Sunday with two teams that grade out with a 90% chance to win. In my world, it seldom gets better than this and I am confident I will again go 3-0.
It will be 20 units on each winner and 10 units on the parlay and you can win it all for just $25, charged to your major credit card or to Pay Pal.
Last Sunday's Winning 50-Unit NFL Parlay
20 Units...Giants (-3) 24, Redskins 3 (Won)
20 Units...Jaguars (+3) 26, Broncos 24 (Won)
10 Units...Parlay of Giants and Jaguars (Won)
Winning 50-Unit NFL Parlay Sunday, Sept. 29
20 Units...Cowboys (-21.5) 31, Dolphins 6 (Won)
20 Units...Colts (-1.5) 27, Falcons 24 (Won)
10 Units...Parlay of Cowboys and Colts (Won)
Saturday's College Best Bet
MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS (4-0) (-14) by 21 over Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2)
This young Minnesota team is off to a 4-0 start, albeit against rather mediocre competition, and with the wins coming by an average of just 6.7 points, but that is not a negative to me. This is more of a wager against a dramatically inferior Illinois team that is quite creative in finding ways to lose. Golden Gophers QB Tanner Morgan is an outstanding quarterback and showed it last week at Purdue, completing 21-of-22 passes for 396 yards and four touchdowns. Minnesota is approaching the top of its game and has the talent to dominate in this one.
Sunday's NFL Best Bet
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) (+3.5) by 6-7 over NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (3-1)
This NFL clash boils down to the quarterbacks and the underdog Buccaneers have a big edge at that position. The Saints lost starter Drew Brees to injury in the first game of the season, leaving the signal calling duties to backup Teddy Bridgewater. The latter has been successful thus far, but it became obvious last week in a 12-10 win over the Dallas Cowboys the league has figured him out and can stop him in his tracks. One must be mindful New Orleans won last week on the strength of four field goals. That will not get it done and I look for Bucs QB Jameis Winston (385 yards passing and four touchdowns in win over the Rams last week) to rip apart a Saints pass defense that gives up 279.3 yards per game. (Home Team In CAPS)
The Weekend's Official Betting Menu
SATURDAY COLLEGE FOOTBALL
SUNDAY IN THE NFL
AN IMPORTANT REMINDER
All the games listed above can be purchased by the day for prices ranging from $15-$50. You can sign up for one of my three football services for the entire NFL and college seasons and save a fortune.
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