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Home Page 10/21/2017 by Kelso Sturgeon

Accounting for Strength of Schedule

 

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Accounting for Strength of Schedule

We've come to a point in the college and pro football seasons that will really mess up lazy or half-hearted sports bettors who don't like thinking through the process. I'm grateful that all of YOU who regularly attend classes here in my Advanced College of Sports Betting will put your noses to the grindstone to maximize your profit.

Perceived football performance can be greatly polluted by variance in strength of schedule. It's possible for a mediocre team to have a great record if they've only played poor opponents. It's possible for a very good team to have a .500 record if they've only played other very good teams so far. That seems obvious. But, I'm continually shocked by how many analysts don't take this into account. I think the main reason is that the TV networks love hyping teams for their broadcasts, and they're not going to go out of their way to mention when somebody's a pretender. Too many casual fans listen to TV or radio pundits and repeat what they hear as gospel.

Contributed Articles 10/19/2017 by Kelso Sturgeon

How Sharps are Betting Late Week Football

 

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A lot of lesser conferences in college football try to grab the TV spotlight the next two nights. Sharps have been betting those games along with Chiefs/Raiders in the NFL. Let's take a look at how the Wise Guys have been betting Thursday and Friday action. I'll also include four marquee matchups from Saturday's college slate. Then, I'll be back at the usual time Friday to run through the rest of this weekend's pro football.

THURSDAY

Kansas City at Oakland: We've been sitting on a solid three since the game hit the board. That's such a common number that sharps would fade any move off the three for value. KC -2.5 would be popular because the Chiefs are playing so much better than the Raiders, and are in bounce back spot off a loss. But, Oakland as a divisional home dog of +3.5 would also get action. The total has moved down from 47.5 to 46.5 because Oakland's offense has struggled when QB Derek Carr hasn't been at full strength.

Memphis at Houston: Not quite the monster the conference (and TV networks) were hoping for. This isn't last year's Houston team, obvious in that blowout loss at Tulsa. And that Memphis win over UCLA that a lot of people watched a few weeks ago was erased by a 40-13 rout at the hands of Central Florida. Still, this could be a great game to watch and bet. Sharps liked Memphis +3, leading to a solid +2.5 everywhere as I write this. That's actually strong support for the dog...because the line didn't move back to the key number. No interest yet in either of the Thursday night college totals.

Exclusive Coverage of all NFL 10/21/2017

Redskins CB Norman ruled out vs. Eagles

Washington Redskins cornerback Josh Norman was ruled out for Monday night's game against the Philadelphia Eagles because of a rib injury.

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Exclusive Coverage of all College Football 10/21/2017

Top 25 roundup: No. 1 Alabama rolls past Tennessee

TUSCALOOSA, Ala. -- It took a little while for Alabama to flex its muscles against Tennessee, but the Crimson Tide eventually showed why they are the No. 1 team in the nation.

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