50-Unit Win With Wizards Tops 3-0 NBA Night
Next 50-Unit Play Set To Win Tuesday
The Situation Element Of Handicapping Moves To Front In NBA Playoffs
By Kelso Sturgeon
From Day One of the NBA playoffs it was obvious to those with even limited handicapping skills winning in the post-season would not be a stroll through a flower garden. That fact was confirmed immediately after just eight games, with home teams going 2-6 straight up and with favorites reporting in 1-7 against the spread (ATS).
Those first-game figures set the stage for the handicapping elements of “circumstance” and “situation” to be added to the challenge of picking NBA playoff winners. Many games during the regular season are often placed under the rule of these two factors but there is a major difference in how they are weighted in the post season…and it is basic.
In the regular season, those making betting lines will seldom include situation and circumstance in the numbers the post, thus making these hidden and subjective factors irrelevant. In the post season, they do include them.
For instance, if a heavily favored team loses in a home game, such as did the Los Angeles Clippers Saturday, and with the loss the all-important home-court edge heading into game two, that situation will be factored into the betting line. Since the Clippers can ill afford to go down 0-2 in their best-of-seven series bookmakers assume they will definitely bring their “A” game and that bettors will wager on them.
This means teams in this situation will be offered to the public with an inflated betting line and the handicapper must decide whether this edge is enough to make the cover easier than it should be. There is no easy answer but it is safe to say at this point of the season, teams that need to win do have some edge.
Just remember, winning is one thing and covering another. A team that has to win may do just that and still not cover the inflated number. Regardless, any team coming off a terrible game, especially if it lost at home, and as a favorite, is in major bounce-back form and extremely dangerous. It is a fact most teams in this situation win. Cover?
No one ever said this game was easy.
I went a perfect 3-0 in the NBA Playoffs Sunday, winning a 50-unit play with the underdog Washington Wizards, a 15-unit bet on the underdog Dallas Mavericks and a 5-unit play on the over in the Houston-Portland game, and intend to go 2-0 tonight.
The two nationally televised Monday night games find Oklahoma City (60-23) hosting the Memphis Grizzlies (50-33) and Los Angeles Clippers (57-26) hosting the Golden State Warriors (52-31). The betting lines are tight as a dead-heat but I do believe I have these games figured out and am so confident I am right that in one game I am releasing a 25-unit contest and in the other a 10-unit play. Get both winners tonight for just $25, charged to your major credit card.
Better yet, get on board for the entire playoff package and receive your daily winners right through the championship game in June for just $150, charged to your major credit card.
My Personal Best Baseball Investment Club for highrollers won again Sunday with the Boston Red Sox (-155) who knocked off the Baltimore Orioles, 6-5, for its third straight 50-unit win and I am coming right back tonight with another one. I am releasing a 50-unit play on a team that has all the edges and figures to be a dominating winner. Get this 50-unit baseball play for just $25, charged to your major credit card.
|4/20||50-U||Red Sox (-155) 6, Orioles 5||W|
|4/19||50-U||Dodgers (-2.5 Runs +11) 8, Diamondbacks 6||W|
|4/18||50-U||Rangers (-160) 12, White Sox 0||W|
My Best Bets Baseball Investment Club has gone 8-3 over the past five days…including three 2-0 days…and I am going for the money again tonight with two standout plays that both have an 85% chance to get the money. The two teams I am releasing have excellent starting pitchers and are being offered at an extremely soft betting line. Go 2-0 with me again tonight for just $15.
Better yet, get on board for the entire baseball season and play right through the World Series in October for just $150.
One Edge Is Missing In NBA Playoffs
The biggest challenge for me personally in handicapping the NBA playoffs is that this exercise is missing the one single element I find extremely important in successfully picking winners…every single game is a “contest” where the betting line is in play.
I never look for a “contest” but for a team that stands out over a lesser opponent and grades out with a strong chance to get the money. Contests means both teams in a game have an equal chance to win and cover. Why go there when there are so many other opportunities that avoid that label?
The challenge of winning is more difficult, but I have proved for years I can do it. It is not easy; it requires many additional hours of daily handicapping.
Going For Another 50-Unit NBA Playoff Winner Tuesday Night
I am thankful I have had great success in the NBA playoffs for the past 12-15 years and am off to a solid start this time around and believe I have the handicapping tools to keep right on winning. Here is my NBA playoffs record heading into Monday night’s games.
The Record Thus Far
|4/20||50-U||Wizards (+4½) Bulls||102-93||W|
|15-U||Mavericks (+9½) Spurs||85-90||W|
|5-U||Portland/Houston OVER 214.5||122/120 (242)||W|
|4/19||50-U||Raptors (-3) Nets||87-94||L|
|10-U||Warriors (+7) Clippers||109-105||W|
|10-U||Grizzlies (+7½) Thunder||86-100||L|
There are three games on the Tuesday night NBA schedule…
Atlanta Hawks at Indiana Pacers (-7)
Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors (-4)
Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls (-5)
…and in one of these contests is a team that grades out as a 50-unit release and I will again be going for the money. You can get this game on this website or toll free at 1-8700-755-2255. All major credit cards accepted.